2021 05 11 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wealdstone vs Bromley at 11 May 2021
Aldershot vs Yeovil at 11 May 2021
Chesterfield vs King’s Lynn at 11 May 2021
Maidenhead vs Notts County at 11 May 2021
Solihull vs Weymouth at 11 May 2021
Stockport vs Dag and Red at 11 May 2021
Sutton vs Woking at 11 May 2021


Wealdstone vs Bromley at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

3.60

2.99

5.7

Draw

3.59

3.66

-0.5

Bromley

1.92

2.55

-12.9

Over 2.5

1.76

2.04

-7.8

Under 2.5

2.05

1.96

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (5.7 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 40.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Dag and Red

H

0

5

L

O

N

03 May

Stockport

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 May

Yeovil

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Aldershot

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Apr

Maidenhead

H

0

6

L

O

N

17 Apr

Hartlepool

H

2

7

L

O

G

10 Apr

Boreham Wood

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barnet

H

5

1

W

O

G


Bromley in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 9 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Torquay

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 May

Hartlepool

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Woking

A

4

3

W

O

G

10 Apr

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Bromley is 0.459.
The home dynamic for the Wealdstone is -0.135 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is -0.005.
The offensive ability for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Bromley is 0.442.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wealdstone is -1 and for the Bromley is 0.144.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

27%

38%

22%

13%

Bromley

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.05 goals and Bromley to score 1.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team Bromley to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.21 goals and Bromley to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.88

1

5.29

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.05

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.74

2.84

2-3 goals

3.06

3.81

2.44

4+ goals

3.25

3.34

2.55

Ov 1.5

3.12

3.64

2.47

Un 1.5

2.63

3.74

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.68

6.64

2.10

Un 2.5

3.33

2.56

3.24

Ov 3.5

3.25

3.34

2.55

Un 3.5

2.90

3.78

2.56

Goal-Goal

3.63

2.67

2.86

No Goal

2.45

6.61

2.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

5.59

2.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

6.61

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aldershot vs Yeovil at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

2.50

2.23

4.8

Draw

3.22

3.83

-4.9

Yeovil

2.66

3.42

-8.4

Over 2.5

1.95

2.00

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.81

2.00

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aldershot in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance at home.
Aldershot, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 May

Sutton

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Apr

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

King’s Lynn

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Barnet

A

1

3

L

O

G

13 Apr

Weymouth

A

3

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Dag and Red

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Stockport

H

1

2

L

O

G


Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Wrexham

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 May

Halifax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 May

Wealdstone

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Solihull

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Solihull

A

1

5

L

O

G

17 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Mar

Notts County

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Aldershot is -0.16 and for the Yeovil is -0.059.
The home dynamic for the Aldershot is -0.031 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.364.
The offensive ability for the Aldershot is 1 and for the Yeovil is -0.084.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aldershot is -0.278 and for the Yeovil is 0.411.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

25%

29%

25%

21%

Yeovil

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.26 goals and Yeovil to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.42 goals and Yeovil to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Aldershot to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.83

1

5.49

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.94

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.30

2.93

2-3 goals

2.06

4.60

3.38

4+ goals

2.13

3.34

4.31

Ov 1.5

2.08

4.07

3.65

Un 1.5

2.81

3.30

2.93

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.58

3.36

Un 2.5

2.90

2.71

3.51

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.34

4.31

Un 3.5

2.27

4.04

3.21

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.83

4.20

No Goal

2.04

6.15

2.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.36

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.15

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chesterfield vs King’s Lynn at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

1.63

1.96

-10.3

Draw

4.03

4.05

-0.1

King’s Lynn

4.69

4.12

2.9

Over 2.5

1.61

1.96

-11.1

Under 2.5

2.24

2.04

4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (2.9 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Woking

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 May

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Apr

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Apr

Bromley

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

0

0

D

U

N


King’s Lynn in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 13 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 20.4% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Boreham Wood

A

1

5

L

O

G

01 May

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Stockport

H

0

4

L

O

N

24 Apr

Dag and Red

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Apr

Aldershot

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Halifax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Apr

Stockport

A

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Chesterfield is -0.064 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.667.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is 0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the King’s Lynn is -0.918.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.227 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.474.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is -0.652 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.444.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

24%

24%

26%

26%

King’s Lynn

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.99 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.53 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.80

1

5.68

2-3

2.08

2

4.39

4+

3.92

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

3.02

2.92

2-3 goals

1.71

5.47

4.33

4+ goals

1.80

3.59

6.07

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.63

4.81

Un 1.5

3.06

3.02

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.15

4.75

Un 2.5

2.73

2.81

3.61

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.59

6.07

Un 3.5

2.02

4.25

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.03

3.05

5.57

No Goal

1.90

5.91

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.66

5.59

4.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

5.91

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Notts County at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

3.48

2.59

9.9

Draw

3.48

3.69

-1.6

Notts County

1.98

2.92

-16.3

Over 2.5

1.85

2.01

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.91

1.99

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead (9.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Hartlepool

A

4

2

W

O

G

03 May

Wrexham

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

King’s Lynn

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Weymouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Wealdstone

A

6

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Apr

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N


Notts County in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 49.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Barnet

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 May

Sutton

H

3

2

W

O

G

01 May

Altrincham

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Torquay

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Hartlepool

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Maidenhead is 0.424 and for the Notts County is 0.089.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is -0.092 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.179.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is 0.227 and for the Notts County is 0.158.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.278 and for the Notts County is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

24%

37%

23%

16%

Notts County

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.03 goals and Notts County to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Notts County to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.31 goals and Notts County to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.92

1

5.35

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.97

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-