2021 05 11 France’s LNB Pro A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dijon vs Monaco at 12 May 2021
Gravelines vs Le Portel at 12 May 2021
Roanne vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 12 May 2021
Limoges vs Orleans at 12 May 2021
ASVEL vs Le Mans at 12 May 2021
Chalons-Reims vs Cholet at 12 May 2021
Elan Chalon vs Nanterre at 12 May 2021
JL Bourg-en-Bresse vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 14 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Dijon vs Monaco at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Monaco for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Dijon

2.35

2.59

Monaco

1.62

1.63

Dijon HC

+2.5

4.00

Monaco HC

-2.5

-4.00

Point Line

153.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Dijon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

A

Elan Bearnais

L

54

79

18

5

L 1

52

81

Apr 30

H

Cholet

W

89

81

18

4

W 6

88

81

Apr 27

A

Chalons-Reims

W

90

80

17

4

W 5

85

81

Apr 20

H

Nanterre

W

78

67

16

4

W 4

77

66

Apr 13

A

Limoges

W

103

69

15

4

W 3

106

73

Apr 10

H

Boulazac

W

86

77

14

4

W 2

80

82

Mar 30

H

BCM Gravelines

W

83

73

13

4

W 1

80

77

Mar 27

A

Strasbourg

L

78

84

12

4

L 2

80

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Monaco are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

H

BCM Gravelines

W

122

69

17

2

W 6

118

73

Apr 23

A

Strasbourg

W

82

70

16

2

W 5

84

69

Apr 20

A

Paris Levallois

W

85

78

15

2

W 4

90

79

Apr 14

A

Elan Chalon

W

86

78

14

2

W 3

82

79

Apr 12

H

Chalons-Reims

W

94

76

13

2

W 2

88

77

Apr 3

H

Orleans Loiret

W

92

80

12

2

W 1

92

75

Mar 29

H

Cholet

L

76

97

11

2

L 1

75

97

Mar 20

A

Cholet

W

87

76

11

1

W 11

86

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Dijon and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Monaco.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Monaco and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Dijon.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Dijon (in the first graph) and by Monaco in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Dijon will expected to score 77 points and the Monaco 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Dijon

Monaco

FG%

0.58

0.54

ASS

18.50

17.70

DRB

20.80

21.30

AST-TO

1.46

1.45

TRB

27.00

32.20

FTM

11.60

16.40

BL

2.10

2.50

FTA

14.90

22.90

PF-Fewer

19.70

22.00

ST

7.40

10.20

TO-Fewer

12.70

12.20

Ftper

0.78

0.72

ORBper

0.30

0.51

ORB

6.20

10.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gravelines vs Le Portel at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gravelines and Le Portel for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gravelines

1.39

1.66

Le Portel

3.15

2.50

Gravelines HC

-6.5

-3.50

Le Portel HC

+6.5

3.50

Point Line

152.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gravelines are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

A

Monaco

L

69

122

8

16

L 8

76

116

May 4

A

Cholet

L

90

105

8

15

L 7

89

105

May 1

H

Nanterre

L

81

102

8

14

L 6

80

101

Apr 27

A

Elan Chalon

L

80

81

8

13

L 5

76

82

Apr 20

H

Orleans Loiret

L

64

77

8

12

L 4

64

72

Apr 16

A

Chalons-Reims

L

70

87

8

11

L 3

66

88

Apr 10

A

Le Portel

L

65

89

8

10

L 2

64

97

Apr 7

H

JL Bourg

L

90

98

8

9

L 1

92

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Le Portel are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

H

Le Mans

W

88

63

10

15

W 1

86

60

May 7

H

ASVEL

L

69

99

9

15

L 4

70

87

May 4

A

Nanterre

L

75

76

9

14

L 3

74

75

May 1

A

JL Bourg

L

72

101

9

13

L 2

74

95

Apr 27

A

Elan Bearnais

L

68

90

9

12

L 1

66

92

Apr 20

H

Boulazac

W

81

77

9

11

W 2

76

82

Apr 16

H

Roanne

W

79

77

8

11

W 1

77

78

Apr 13

A

Le Mans

L

61

90

7

11

L 1

60

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gravelines and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Le Portel.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Le Portel and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gravelines.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gravelines (in the first graph) and by Le Portel in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gravelines will expected to score 79 points and the Le Portel 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gravelines

Le Portel

FG%

0.54

0.53

ASS

17.80

17.70

DRB

22.00

19.60

AST-TO

1.06

1.12

TRB

28.40

27.80

FTM

15.40

13.30

BL

1.60

1.70

FTA

19.90

18.20

PF-Fewer

20.70

21.20

ST

7.20

7.60

TO-Fewer

16.80

15.80

Ftper

0.77

0.73

ORBper

0.29

0.42

ORB

6.40

8.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Roanne vs Boulazac Dordogne Pro at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Roanne and Boulazac Dordogne Pro for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Roanne

1.32

1.45

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

3.55

3.21

Roanne HC

-7.5

-5.50

Boulazac Dordogne Pro HC

+7.5

5.50

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Roanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 4

A

ASVEL

L

93

101

9

15

L 4

94

88

May 1

H

Orleans Loiret

L

91

95

9

14

L 3

91

90

Apr 27

A

Cholet

L

72

83

9

13

L 2

71

83

Apr 25

A

Strasbourg

L

74

87

9

12

L 1

76

85

Apr 20

H

Chalons-Reims

W

98

83

9

11

W 1

92

84

Apr 16

A

Le Portel

L

77

79

8

11

L 2

76

86

Apr 13

H

Elan Bearnais

L

72

80

8

10

L 1

69

82

Apr 9

H

Le Mans

W

90

72

8

9

W 5

88

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Boulazac Dordogne Pro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

A

ASVEL

L

80

96

2

20

L 10

81

84

May 4

A

Orleans Loiret

L

68

91

2

19

L 9

68

86

Apr 30

H

Strasbourg

L

79

86

2

18

L 8

81

84

Apr 27

H

Paris Levallois

L

85

91

2

17

L 7

90

92

Apr 23

H

Cholet

L

77

83

2

16

L 6

76

83

Apr 20

A

Le Portel

L

77

81

2

15

L 5

76

88

Apr 17

H

ASVEL

L

67

95

2

14

L 4

68

83

Apr 13

H

JL Bourg

L

68

81

2

13

L 3

69

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Roanne and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Boulazac Dordogne Pro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Boulazac Dordogne Pro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Roanne.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Roanne (in the first graph) and by Boulazac Dordogne Pro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Roanne will expected to score 84 points and the Boulazac Dordogne Pro 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Roanne

Boulazac Dordogne Pro

FG%

0.54

0.51

ASS

16.00

15.60

DRB

20.10

21.10

AST-TO

1.13

1.09

TRB

28.80

29.00

FTM

15.00

16.00

BL

2.60

1.60

FTA

21.30

21.30

PF-Fewer

19.40

21.10

ST

8.20

6.20

TO-Fewer

14.10

14.30

Ftper

0.70

0.75

ORBper

0.43

0.37

ORB

8.70

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Limoges vs Orleans at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Limoges and Orleans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Limoges

1.72

2.92

Orleans

2.18

1.52

Limoges HC

-2.5

5.00

Orleans HC

+2.5

-5.00

Point Line

163.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Limoges are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 8

H

Elan Chalon

W

96

90

12

10

W 3

91

91

May 4

A

Elan Chalon

W

96

95

11

10

W 2

91

96

Apr 27

A

Nanterre

W

88

66

10

10

W 1

87

66

Apr 20

H

Strasbourg

L

68

81

9

10

L 1

69

79

Apr 18

A

JL Bourg

W

69

66

9

9

W 1

70

62

Apr 13

H

Dijon

L

69

103

8

9

L 1

75

105

Apr 9

A

Cholet

W

82

81

8

8

W 1

81

81

Apr 3

H

Roanne

L

62

86

7

8

L 1

61

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Orleans are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 8

H

Paris Levallois

W

90

79

12

11

W 4

96

80

May 4

H

Boulazac

W

91

68

11

11

W 3

85

73

May 1

A

Roanne

W

95

91

10

11

W 2

93

92

Apr 27

H

JL Bourg

W

78

70

9

11

W 1

80

66

Apr 23

H

Nanterre

L

89

98

8

11

L 1

88

97

Apr 20

A

BCM Gravelines

W

77

64

8

10

W 1

74

68

Apr 17

H

Le Mans

L

79

87

7

10

L 4

78

82

Apr 11

A

Paris Levallois

L

65

87

7

9

L 3

69

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Limoges and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Orleans.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Orleans and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Limoges.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Limoges (in the first graph) and by Orleans in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Limoges will expected to score 80 points and the Orleans 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Limoges

Orleans

FG%

0.55

0.57

ASS

19.50

20.50

DRB

20.00

22.70

AST-TO

1.46

1.42

TRB

26.80

29.70

FTM

14.40

16.70

BL

1.40

1.80

FTA

18.40

22.30

PF-Fewer

18.30

19.10

ST

5.70

8.00

TO-Fewer

13.40

14.40

Ftper

0.78

0.75

ORBper

0.34

0.31

ORB

6.80

7.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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ASVEL vs Le Mans at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between ASVEL and Le Mans for France’s LNB Pro A, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

ASVEL

1.14

2.12

Le Mans

6.1

1.89

ASVEL HC

-11.5

1.50

Le Mans HC

+11.5

-1.50

Point Line

167.5

168.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of ASVEL are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

H

Boulazac

W

96

80

15

6

W 4

90

86

May 7

A

Le Portel

W

99

69

14

6

W 3

97

75

May 4

H

Roanne

W

101

93

13

6

W 2

99

94

Apr 30

H

Elan Chalon

W

102

75

12

6

W 1

97