2021 05 11 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

GS Lavrio vs Kolossos Rhodes at 11 May 2021
AEK Athens vs PAOK at 11 May 2021
Promitheas vs Peristeri at 12 May 2021
Panathinaikos vs Ionikos Nikaias at 12 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



GS Lavrio vs Kolossos Rhodes at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between GS Lavrio and Kolossos Rhodes for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

GS Lavrio

1.11

1.43

Kolossos Rhodes

6.6

3.32

GS Lavrio HC

-11.5

-6.00

Kolossos Rhodes HC

+11.5

6.00

Point Line

145.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

H

Larisa

W

81

75

17

5

W 2

77

78

Apr 14

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

105

77

16

5

W 1

102

80

Apr 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

69

105

15

5

L 1

75

89

Apr 3

A

AEK Athens

W

97

94

15

4

W 7

100

87

Mar 20

A

Messolonghi

W

79

75

14

4

W 6

75

79

Mar 14

H

Peristeri

W

88

71

13

4

W 5

92

77

Mar 10

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

83

77

12

4

W 4

83

76

Mar 7

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

89

88

11

4

W 3

85

88

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

85

86

8

14

L 1

81

86

Apr 10

H

AEK Athens

W

79

72

8

13

W 1

82

67

Apr 7

H

Promitheas Patras

L

79

84

7

13

L 1

80

91

Apr 3

H

Aris

W

83

72

7

12

W 1

83

75

Mar 28

A

P.A.O.K.

L

74

82

6

12

L 4

73

80

Mar 14

A

Larisa

L

73

82

6

11

L 3

70

85

Mar 10

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

83

6

10

L 2

78

77

Mar 7

H

Panathinaikos

L

82

95

6

9

L 1

89

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by GS Lavrio (in the first graph) and by Kolossos Rhodes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, GS Lavrio will expected to score 80 points and the Kolossos Rhodes 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

GS Lavrio

Kolossos Rhodes

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

18.40

18.60

DRB

22.40

24.40

AST-TO

1.45

1.35

TRB

30.50

31.00

FTM

15.40

14.20

BL

2.80

1.30

FTA

21.80

19.20

PF-Fewer

22.00

23.20

ST

7.40

5.90

TO-Fewer

12.70

13.80

Ftper

0.71

0.74

ORBper

0.36

0.27

ORB

8.00

6.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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AEK Athens vs PAOK at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.39

1.39

PAOK

3.53

3.54

AEK Athens HC

-6.5

-6.50

PAOK HC

+6.5

6.50

Point Line

155.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

H

Panathinaikos

L

95

104

14

8

L 4

103

88

Apr 14

A

Promitheas Patras

L

78

80

14

7

L 3

79

87

Apr 10

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

72

79

14

6

L 2

72

78

Apr 3

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

94

97

14

5

L 1

95

90

Mar 27

A

Aris

W

73

68

14

4

W 5

73

71

Mar 20

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

100

97

13

4

W 4

97

101

Mar 13

A

P.A.O.K.

W

87

85

12

4

W 3

86

83

Mar 6

H

Messolonghi

W

98

76

11

4

W 2

92

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

A

Messolonghi

W

84

69

13

9

W 1

79

73

Apr 18

H

Panathinaikos

L

68

74

12

9

L 1

74

63

Apr 11

H

Peristeri

W

85

66

12

8

W 4

89

71

Apr 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

84

83

11

8

W 3

80

83

Mar 28

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

82

74

10

8

W 2

82

73

Mar 20

A

Aris

W

77

71

9

8

W 1

77

74

Mar 13

H

AEK Athens

L

85

87

8

8

L 1

88

81

Mar 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

81

78

8

7

W 2

82

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by AEK Athens (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, AEK Athens will expected to score 80 points and the PAOK 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

AEK Athens

PAOK

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

17.30

14.50

DRB

22.50

23.00

AST-TO

1.37

1.05

TRB

32.30

30.50

FTM

15.50

14.50

BL

2.90

2.00

FTA

21.10

18.70

PF-Fewer

23.10

22.60

ST

6.70

8.30

TO-Fewer

12.60

13.80

Ftper

0.73

0.77

ORBper

0.44

0.33

ORB

9.80

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Promitheas vs Peristeri at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.34

1.50

Peristeri

3.4

2.99

Promitheas HC

-6.5

-5.00

Peristeri HC

+6.5

5.00

Point Line

148.5

143.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

90

85

16

6

W 1

88

89

Apr 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

61

83

15

6

L 1

66

70

Apr 14

H

AEK Athens

W

80

78

15

5

W 6

83

72

Apr 11

H

Messolonghi

W

84

68

14

5

W 5

79

72

Apr 7

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

84

79

13

5

W 4

84

78

Apr 4

A

Peristeri

W

73

70

12

5

W 3

76

76

Mar 31

H

Aris

W

90

69

11

5

W 2

90

72

Mar 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

82

72

10

5

W 1

78

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

H

Aris

W

82

65

11

11

W 2

82

68

Apr 25

H

Larisa

W

80

56

10

11

W 1

76

58

Apr 11

A

P.A.O.K.

L

66

85

9

11

L 2

65

83

Apr 4

H

Promitheas Patras

L

70

73

9

10

L 1

71

79

Mar 28

A

Larisa

W

98

78

9

9

W 1

94

81

Mar 22

H

Panathinaikos

L

68

74

8

9

L 3

74

63

Mar 14

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

71

88

8

8

L 2

72

82

Mar 6

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

70

79

8

7

L 1

68

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 77 points and the Peristeri 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Peristeri

FG%

0.52

0.50

ASS

17.40

16.10

DRB

22.30

23.20

AST-TO

1.43

1.25

TRB

27.60

31.50

FTM

14.50

14.00

BL

3.20

2.00

FTA

20.30

18.50

PF-Fewer

18.40

20.50

ST

6.30

5.90

TO-Fewer

12.20

12.90

Ftper

0.71

0.76

ORBper

0.24

0.36

ORB

5.30

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Ionikos Nikaias at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.01

1.16

Ionikos Nikaias

18.5

7.26

Panathinaikos HC

-23.5

-10.00

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+23.5

10.00

Point Line

168.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

A

AEK Athens

W

104

95

20

2

W 10

108

88

Apr 24

A

Promitheas Patras

W

83

61

19

2

W 9

84

66

Apr 20

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

100

66

18

2

W 8

97

69

Apr 18

A

P.A.O.K.

W

74

68

17

2

W 7

73

66

Apr 10

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

105

69

16

2

W 6

106

64

Mar 27

H

Messolonghi

W

102

68

15

2

W 5

96

72

Mar 22

A

Peristeri

W

74

68

14

2

W 4

78

73

Mar 13

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

98

74

13

2

W 3

93

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 28

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

86

85

8

14

W 1

86

84

Apr 10

A

Aris

L

62

74

7

14

L 3

62

77

Apr 3

H

P.A.O.K.

L

83

84

7

13

L 2

82

82

Mar 27

A

Promitheas Patras

L

72

82

7

12

L 1

73

89

Mar 21

H

Larisa

W

83

76

7

11

W 1

79

79

Mar 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

98

6

11

L 2

80

83

Mar 7

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

88

89

6

10

L 1

89

83

Feb 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

78

75

6

9

W 2

76

78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 85 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 160.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.61

0.51

ASS

20.60

15.30

DRB

25.60

22.50

AST-TO

1.53

1.12

TRB

35.00

31.10

FTM

14.10

13.70

BL

3.00

2.00

FTA

18.70

17.70

PF-Fewer

20.50

20.50

ST

7.50

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.50

13.70

Ftper

0.76

0.77

ORBper

0.37

0.38

ORB

9.40

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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