# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Elche vs Alaves at 11 May 2021**** Osasuna vs Cadiz at 11 May 2021**** Celta vs Getafe at 12 May 2021**** Huesca vs Ath Bilbao at 12 May 2021**** Levante vs Barcelona at 12 May 2021**** Sevilla vs Valencia at 12 May 2021**** Valladolid vs Villarreal at 13 May 2021**** Ath Madrid vs Sociedad at 13 May 2021**** Eibar vs Betis at 13 May 2021**

###
Elche vs Alaves at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Elche** and **Alaves** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **11 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Elche |
2.95 |
2.10 |
13.7 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.83 |
-7.0 |

Alaves |
2.74 |
3.80 |
-10.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.00 |
12.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.00 |
-16.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Elche, Over 2.5 (13.7 %, 12.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Elche** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Elche** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance** at home**.

Elche,** at home**, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Elche scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 May |
Sociedad |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Ath Madrid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Levante |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Betis |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Alaves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alaves** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance** as a guest**.

Alaves,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Alaves scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Levante |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
Eibar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Celta |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Elche** is **-0.456** and for the **Alaves** is **0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Elche** is **-0.109** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Alaves** is **-0.959.**

The offensive ability for the **Elche** is **-0.227** and for the **Alaves** is **0.084.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Elche** is **-0.591** and for the **Alaves** is **-0.144.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Elche** and the red line for guest team, **Alaves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Elche |
22% |
32% |
24% |
22% |

Alaves |
33% |
38% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Elche** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Alaves** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Elche** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Alaves** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Elche ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.63 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.06 |
3.96 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.65 |
4.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.00 |
3.91 |
4.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.63 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.25 |
3.55 |

Un 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.61 |
4.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.65 |
4.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.90 |
3.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.42 |
2.77 |
4.42 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.69 |
3.30 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.87 |
3.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.69 |
3.11 |

####
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###
Osasuna vs Cadiz at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Osasuna** and **Cadiz** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **11 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Osasuna |
1.94 |
2.01 |
-1.8 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.89 |
-2.5 |

Cadiz |
4.16 |
4.05 |
0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.93 |
3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.07 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cadiz, Over 2.5 (0.7 %, 3.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Osasuna** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Osasuna** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance** at home**.

Osasuna,** at home**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Osasuna scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Celta |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Valencia |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Elche |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Villarreal |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Getafe |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Cadiz** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cadiz** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance** as a guest**.

Cadiz,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cadiz scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Huesca |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Granada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Apr |
Celta |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Osasuna** is **0.176** and for the **Cadiz** is **0.356.**

The home dynamic for the **Osasuna** is **-0.258** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cadiz** is **-0.518.**

The offensive ability for the **Osasuna** is **0.571** and for the **Cadiz** is **0.126.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Osasuna** is **-0.652** and for the **Cadiz** is **0.411.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Osasuna** and the red line for guest team, **Cadiz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Osasuna |
20% |
30% |
26% |
24% |

Cadiz |
31% |
41% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Cadiz** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Osasuna ** to win by **0.64** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Osasuna** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Cadiz** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Osasuna ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.80 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.78 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
3.99 |
4.50 |

4+ goals |
1.87 |
3.81 |
4.96 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.89 |
3.93 |
4.65 |

Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.78 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.48 |
4.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.57 |
4.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.87 |
3.81 |
4.96 |

Un 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.92 |
3.82 |

Goal-Goal |
2.22 |
2.83 |
5.10 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
7.09 |
3.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.12 |
3.94 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
7.09 |
3.00 |

####
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###
Celta vs Getafe at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Celta** and **Getafe** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Celta |
2.44 |
2.00 |
9.0 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.85 |
-5.0 |

Getafe |
3.13 |
4.18 |
-8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.02 |
6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.98 |
-10.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Celta, Over 2.5 (9 %, 6.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Celta** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Celta** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance** at home**.

Celta,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Celta scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Villarreal |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Apr |
Levante |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Sevilla |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Alaves |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Getafe** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Getafe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance** as a guest**.

Getafe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Getafe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Eibar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 May |
Villarreal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Apr |
Barcelona |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Real Madrid |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Cadiz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Mar |
Elche |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Celta** is **0.36** and for the **Getafe** is **-0.504.**

The home dynamic for the **Celta** is **0.013** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Getafe** is **-0.826.**

The offensive ability for the **Celta** is **0.657** and for the **Getafe** is **-0.895.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Celta** is **-0.217** and for the **Getafe** is **-0.033.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Celta** and the red line for guest team, **Getafe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Celta |
20% |
34% |
21% |
25% |

Getafe |
36% |
38% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Celta** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Getafe** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Celta** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Getafe** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Celta ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.81 |
3.56 |

2-3 goals |
2.01 |
3.72 |
4.28 |

4+ goals |
1.80 |
4.15 |
4.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.86 |
4.47 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.81 |
3.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.23 |
3.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.53 |
4.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
4.15 |
4.88 |

Un 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.76 |
3.99 |

Goal-Goal |
2.39 |
2.73 |
4.67 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
6.89 |
3.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.47 |
3.50 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.89 |
3.42 |

####
Go to Top

###
Huesca vs Ath Bilbao at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Huesca** and **Ath Bilbao** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Huesca |
2.65 |
2.22 |
7.3 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.79 |
-5.3 |

Ath Bilbao |
2.98 |
3.51 |
-5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
1.94 |
10.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
2.07 |
-14.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huesca, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 10.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 10%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** at home**.

Huesca,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Getafe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Apr |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Elche |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Apr |
Levante |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Ath Bilbao** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Bilbao** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance** as a guest**.

Ath Bilbao,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 May |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Apr |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Ath Madrid |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Betis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Apr |
Sociedad |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Huesca** is **-0.304** and for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.348.**

The home dynamic for the **Huesca** is **-0.424** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ath Bilbao** is **-0.621.**

The offensive ability for the **Huesca** is **-0.116** and for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.189.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Huesca** is **-0.565** and for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.411.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Huesca** and the red line for guest team, **Ath Bilbao. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Huesca |
22% |
31% |
26% |
21% |

Ath Bilbao |
28% |
42% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Huesca** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Huesca ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.77 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |

Gg |
1.78 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.77 |

NoG |
2.28 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |