2021 05 11 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Elche vs Alaves at 11 May 2021
Osasuna vs Cadiz at 11 May 2021
Celta vs Getafe at 12 May 2021
Huesca vs Ath Bilbao at 12 May 2021
Levante vs Barcelona at 12 May 2021
Sevilla vs Valencia at 12 May 2021
Valladolid vs Villarreal at 13 May 2021
Ath Madrid vs Sociedad at 13 May 2021
Eibar vs Betis at 13 May 2021


Elche vs Alaves at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Alaves for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

2.95

2.10

13.7

Draw

3.02

3.83

-7.0

Alaves

2.74

3.80

-10.2

Over 2.5

2.65

2.00

12.3

Under 2.5

1.50

2.00

-16.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (13.7 %, 12.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Elche in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 May

Sociedad

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Getafe

A

1

1

D

U

G


Alaves in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance as a guest.
Alaves, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 21.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Levante

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Eibar

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Valencia

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Villarreal

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Celta

H

1

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Elche is -0.456 and for the Alaves is 0.126.
The home dynamic for the Elche is -0.109 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alaves is -0.959.
The offensive ability for the Elche is -0.227 and for the Alaves is 0.084.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Elche is -0.591 and for the Alaves is -0.144.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

22%

32%

24%

22%

Alaves

33%

38%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.99 goals and Alaves to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.47 goals and Alaves to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.88

1

5.35

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.97

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.63

3.19

2-3 goals

2.00

4.06

3.96

4+ goals

2.02

3.65

4.34

Ov 1.5

2.00

3.91

4.08

Un 1.5

2.43

3.63

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.25

3.55

Un 2.5

2.68

2.61

4.11

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.65

4.34

Un 3.5

2.13

3.90

3.65

Goal-Goal

2.42

2.77

4.42

No Goal

1.83

6.69

3.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

5.87

3.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

6.69

3.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Osasuna vs Cadiz at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Osasuna

1.94

2.01

-1.8

Draw

3.55

3.89

-2.5

Cadiz

4.16

4.05

0.7

Over 2.5

2.06

1.93

3.3

Under 2.5

1.79

2.07

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (0.7 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Osasuna in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Ath Bilbao

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Celta

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Apr

Valencia

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Elche

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Getafe

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Mar

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N


Cadiz in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance as a guest.
Cadiz, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Huesca

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 May

Granada

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Real Madrid

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Apr

Celta

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Osasuna is 0.176 and for the Cadiz is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the Osasuna is -0.258 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cadiz is -0.518.
The offensive ability for the Osasuna is 0.571 and for the Cadiz is 0.126.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Osasuna is -0.652 and for the Cadiz is 0.411.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Osasuna

20%

30%

26%

24%

Cadiz

31%

41%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.52 goals and Cadiz to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.53 goals and Cadiz to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

4.13

1

5.62

2-3

2.02

2

4.13

4+

3.80

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.13

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.78

2.92

2-3 goals

1.90

3.99

4.50

4+ goals

1.87

3.81

4.96

Ov 1.5

1.89

3.93

4.65

Un 1.5

2.55

3.78

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.61

7.48

4.10

Un 2.5

2.75

2.57

4.03

Ov 3.5

1.87

3.81

4.96

Un 3.5

2.07

3.92

3.82

Goal-Goal

2.22

2.83

5.10

No Goal

1.81

7.09

3.27

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

6.12

3.94

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

7.09

3.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Celta vs Getafe at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Celta

2.44

2.00

9.0

Draw

3.23

3.85

-5.0

Getafe

3.13

4.18

-8.0

Over 2.5

2.31

2.02

6.2

Under 2.5

1.63

1.98

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Celta, Over 2.5 (9 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Celta in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance at home.
Celta, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Villarreal

A

4

2

W

O

G

30 Apr

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Osasuna

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

Sociedad

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Sevilla

H

3

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Alaves

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Real Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G


Getafe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 25.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 May

Villarreal

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Apr

Huesca

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Barcelona

A

2

5

L

O

G

18 Apr

Real Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Mar

Elche

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Celta is 0.36 and for the Getafe is -0.504.
The home dynamic for the Celta is 0.013 and the dynamic as a guest for the Getafe is -0.826.
The offensive ability for the Celta is 0.657 and for the Getafe is -0.895.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Celta is -0.217 and for the Getafe is -0.033.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Celta

20%

34%

21%

25%

Getafe

36%

38%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.2 goals and Getafe to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.51 goals and Getafe to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Celta to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.75

1

5.08

2-3

2.07

2

4.18

4+

4.02

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.75

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

3.81

3.56

2-3 goals

2.01

3.72

4.28

4+ goals

1.80

4.15

4.88

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.86

4.47

Un 1.5

2.19

3.81

3.56

Ov 2.5

1.62

8.23

3.83

Un 2.5

2.58

2.53

4.60

Ov 3.5

1.80

4.15

4.88

Un 3.5

2.07

3.76

3.99

Goal-Goal

2.39

2.73

4.67

No Goal

1.70

6.89

3.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

6.47

3.50

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.89

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Huesca vs Ath Bilbao at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huesca

2.65

2.22

7.3

Draw

3.16

3.79

-5.3

Ath Bilbao

2.98

3.51

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.42

1.94

10.2

Under 2.5

1.60

2.07

-14.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huesca, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huesca in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 May

Sociedad

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Getafe

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Apr

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Apr

Alaves

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Apr

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Apr

Levante

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Osasuna

H

0

0

D

U

N


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 31.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Osasuna

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 May

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Apr

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

25 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Betis

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Apr

Sociedad

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Huesca is -0.304 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.348.
The home dynamic for the Huesca is -0.424 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is -0.621.
The offensive ability for the Huesca is -0.116 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.189.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Huesca is -0.565 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.411.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huesca

22%

31%

26%

21%

Ath Bilbao

28%

42%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.12 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.45 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

4.17

1

5.62

2-3

2.02

2

4.10

4+

3.77

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.17

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.07

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

3.77

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-