2021 05 11 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Southampton vs Crystal Palace at 11 May 2021
Chelsea vs Arsenal at 12 May 2021
Aston Villa vs Everton at 13 May 2021


Southampton vs Crystal Palace at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southampton

2.05

2.06

-0.2

Draw

3.62

3.76

-1.0

Crystal Palace

3.65

4.03

-2.6

Over 2.5

1.92

2.09

-4.2

Under 2.5

1.92

1.92

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southampton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance at home.
Southampton, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 43.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Liverpool

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Apr

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Tottenham

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Apr

West Brom

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Burnley

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Mar

Man City

A

2

5

L

O

G

06 Mar

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N


Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance as a guest.
Crystal Palace, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Sheffield United

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 May

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Apr

Leicester

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Chelsea

H

1

4

L

O

G

05 Apr

Everton

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

West Brom

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Mar

Tottenham

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 Mar

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Southampton is -0.48 and for the Crystal Palace is -0.185.
The home dynamic for the Southampton is -0.371 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crystal Palace is -0.374.
The offensive ability for the Southampton is 0.167 and for the Crystal Palace is 0.474.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Southampton is -1 and for the Crystal Palace is 0.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southampton

20%

38%

18%

24%

Crystal Palace

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.53 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.46 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.55

1

4.74

2-3

2.09

2

4.15

4+

4.22

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.55

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

3.97

3.97

2-3 goals

2.21

3.42

3.93

4+ goals

1.85

4.31

4.39

Ov 1.5

2.08

3.67

4.07

Un 1.5

2.01

3.97

3.97

Ov 2.5

1.70

8.64

3.37

Un 2.5

2.54

2.48

4.93

Ov 3.5

1.85

4.31

4.39

Un 3.5

2.13

3.61

3.94

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.62

4.18

No Goal

1.67

6.87

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.73

3.03

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

6.87

3.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Chelsea vs Arsenal at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chelsea and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chelsea

1.75

2.26

-12.9

Draw

3.71

3.70

0.1

Arsenal

5.00

3.50

8.6

Over 2.5

2.05

2.12

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.80

1.89

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Arsenal (0.1 %, 8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chelsea in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance at home.
Chelsea, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Man City

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 May

Fulham

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

West Ham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

Brighton

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Crystal Palace

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

West Brom

H

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Mar

Everton

H

2

0

W

U

N


Arsenal in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

West Brom

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 May

Newcastle

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Apr

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Sheffield United

A

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Liverpool

H

0

3

L

O

N

21 Mar

West Ham

A

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Chelsea is 0.696 and for the Arsenal is 0.222.
The home dynamic for the Chelsea is 0.424 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arsenal is -0.108.
The offensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.631 and for the Arsenal is 0.126.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chelsea is 0.217 and for the Arsenal is 0.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chelsea and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chelsea

22%

36%

24%

17%

Arsenal

34%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.64 goals and Arsenal to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.37 goals and Arsenal to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.62

1

4.98

2-3

2.03

2

3.95

4+

4.33

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.62

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

3.68

3.49

2-3 goals

2.17

3.82

3.60

4+ goals

2.43

3.50

3.30

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.71

3.50

Un 1.5

2.26

3.68

3.49

Ov 2.5

1.96

7.14

2.85

Un 2.5

2.59

2.59

4.37

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.50

3.30

Un 3.5

2.20

3.77

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.65

3.71

No Goal

1.85

6.45

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.13

5.86

2.78

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.45

3.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Aston Villa vs Everton at 13 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

3.65

2.48

12.9

Draw

3.93

3.66

1.9

Everton

1.97

3.10

-18.5

Over 2.5

1.65

2.06

-12.1

Under 2.5

2.27

1.94

7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.9 %, 1.9 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

01 May

Everton

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Apr

West Brom

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Apr

Man City

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Liverpool

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Apr

Fulham

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Tottenham

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Mar

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G


Everton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

West Ham

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Aston Villa

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Apr

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

12 Apr

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

05 Apr

Crystal Palace

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Mar

Burnley

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 Mar

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Aston Villa is -0.12 and for the Everton is 0.185.
The home dynamic for the Aston Villa is -0.083 and the dynamic as a guest for the Everton is 0.508.
The offensive ability for the Aston Villa is 1 and for the Everton is 0.579.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aston Villa is -1 and for the Everton is 0.556.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

25%

40%

12%

24%

Everton

31%

35%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.12 goals and Everton to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the guest team Everton to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.34 goals and Everton to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.47

1

4.74

2-3

2.20

2

4.42

4+

3.91

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.47

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.74

3.31

2-3 goals

3.05

3.24

2.75

4+ goals

1.97

4.65

3.61

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.64

3.01

Un 1.5

2.32

3.74

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.99

8.80

2.60

Un 2.5

3.21

2.37

3.75

Ov 3.5

1.97

4.65

3.61

Un 3.5

2.72

3.42

2.94

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.65

3.40

No Goal

2.06

6.25

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.22

6.85

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.25

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *