2021 05 11 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nacional vs Benfica at 11 May 2021
Tondela vs Belenenses at 11 May 2021
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave at 11 May 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Boavista at 11 May 2021
Guimaraes vs Famalicao at 12 May 2021


Nacional vs Benfica at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nacional and Benfica for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nacional

10.33

6.17

6.5

Draw

5.60

4.18

6.1

Benfica

1.26

1.67

-19.5

Over 2.5

1.52

2.21

-20.5

Under 2.5

2.49

1.82

14.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nacional, Draw, Under 2.5 (6.5 %, 6.1 %, 14.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nacional in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance at home.
Nacional, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 May

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Apr

Guimaraes

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Tondela

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Santa Clara

A

1

5

L

O

G

02 Apr

Portimonense

H

1

5

L

O

G

19 Mar

Gil Vicente

A

0

2

L

U

N


Benfica in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance as a guest.
Benfica, as a guest, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 68.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 May

Porto

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Apr

Tondela

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Apr

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

Portimonense

A

5

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

A

5

0

W

O

N

05 Apr

Maritimo

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Sp Braga

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Nacional is -0.416 and for the Benfica is 0.504.
The home dynamic for the Nacional is -0.712 and the dynamic as a guest for the Benfica is 0.631.
The offensive ability for the Nacional is 0.227 and for the Benfica is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nacional is -0.591 and for the Benfica is -0.033.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nacional and the red line for guest team, Benfica.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nacional

45%

38%

14%

3%

Benfica

20%

27%

29%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nacional to score 0.54 goals and Benfica to score 2.56 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and the guest team Benfica to win by 2.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nacional to score 0.74 goals and Benfica to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the guest team Benfica to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.48

1

5.05

2-3

1.91

2

3.83

4+

5.29

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.48

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.28

Ov 3.5

5.29

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.83

3.22

2.33

2-3 goals

7.37

5.08

1.50

4+ goals

12.60

3.94

1.50

Ov 1.5

8.28

4.72

1.50

Un 1.5

3.83

3.22

2.33

Ov 2.5

7.78

9.40

1.31

Un 2.5

5.32

2.85

2.17

Ov 3.5

12.60

3.94

1.50

Un 3.5

5.55

4.22

1.72

Goal-Goal

8.28

2.91

1.87

No Goal

5.19

6.29

1.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

6.34

7.00

1.43

NG+Un 2.5

4.32

6.29

1.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Tondela vs Belenenses at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Belenenses for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tondela

2.65

2.35

4.8

Draw

2.95

3.64

-6.4

Belenenses

3.03

3.33

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.40

2.20

3.8

Under 2.5

1.59

1.83

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 May

Boavista

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Apr

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Apr

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Apr

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Moreirense

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Guimaraes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Santa Clara

A

1

1

D

U

G


Belenenses in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance as a guest.
Belenenses, as a guest, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 May

Portimonense

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Sp Lisbon

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Maritimo

H

2

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Sp Braga

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Boavista

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Tondela is 0.064 and for the Belenenses is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Tondela is 0.362 and the dynamic as a guest for the Belenenses is -0.344.
The offensive ability for the Tondela is 0.253 and for the Belenenses is 0.474.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tondela is -1 and for the Belenenses is 0.033.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Belenenses.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tondela

26%

34%

22%

17%

Belenenses

33%

38%

17%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.13 goals and Belenenses to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.31 goals and Belenenses to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.63

0-1

3.34

1

4.69

2-3

2.09

2

4.03

4+

4.50

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.34

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.48

2.99

2-3 goals

2.21

3.68

3.63

4+ goals

2.31

3.83

3.26

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.73

3.50

Un 1.5

2.65

3.48

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.90

7.81

2.90

Un 2.5

2.93

2.53

3.80

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.83

3.26

Un 3.5

2.36

3.60

3.35

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.63

3.96

No Goal

2.07

5.87

2.89

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

6.29

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

5.87

2.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Santa Clara vs Rio Ave at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Santa Clara

2.38

2.00

8.0

Draw

3.12

3.79

-5.7

Rio Ave

3.12

4.24

-8.5

Over 2.5

2.40

2.27

2.4

Under 2.5

1.57

1.79

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Santa Clara, Over 2.5 (8 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Santa Clara in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance at home.
Santa Clara, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 May

Famalicao

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 May

Boavista

H

3

3

D

O

G

26 Apr

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Apr

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Guimaraes

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Nacional

H

5

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Porto

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G


Rio Ave in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 May

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Sp Braga

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Boavista

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Santa Clara is -0.336 and for the Rio Ave is -0.356.
The home dynamic for the Santa Clara is 0.022 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rio Ave is -0.672.
The offensive ability for the Santa Clara is -0.176 and for the Rio Ave is -0.968.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Santa Clara is -0.626 and for the Rio Ave is 0.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Santa Clara

23%

33%

24%

20%

Rio Ave

41%

35%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.17 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.41 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Santa Clara to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.24

1

4.65

2-3

2.05

2

3.98

4+

4.90

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.24

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.29

3.81

2-3 goals

1.86

4.24

4.44

4+ goals

1.98

3.64

4.53

Ov 1.5

1.89

4.05

4.46

Un 1.5

2.31

3.29

3.81

Ov 2.5

1.65

7.88

3.77

Un 2.5

2.41

2.68

4.71

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.64

4.53

Un 3.5

2.01

3.81

4.17

Goal-Goal

2.44

2.67

4.62

No Goal

1.74

5.79

3.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

6.11

3.45

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

5.79

3.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sp Lisbon vs Boavista at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sp Lisbon

1.29

1.97

-26.8

Draw

5.27

3.79

7.4

Boavista

10.37

4.35

13.3

Over 2.5

1.76

2.51

-17.0

Under 2.5

2.07

1.66

11.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Boavista, Under 2.5 (7.4 %, 13.3 %, 11.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 11 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 37 points, 82.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 May

Rio Ave

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 May

Nacional

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Sp Braga

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Belenenses

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Apr

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Famalicao

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Guimaraes

H

1

0

W

U

N


Boavista in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance as a guest.
Boavista, as a guest, had 2 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 31.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 May

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 May

Santa Clara

A

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Maritimo

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Rio Ave

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Farense

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Sp Lisbon is 0.84 and for the Boavista is -0.185.
The home dynamic for the Sp Lisbon is 0.921 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boavista is -0.518.
The offensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 1 and for the Boavista is 0.505.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 0.652 and for the Boavista is -0.556.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Boavista.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sp Lisbon

25%

34%

23%

18%

Boavista

50%

22%

24%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 2.22 goals and Boavista to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.33 goals and Boavista to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.87

0-1

2.83

1

4.42

2-3

2.08

2

4.00

4+

5.99

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.54

4

9.26

Un 1.5

2.83

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.51

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.66

Gg

2.67

Ov 3.5

5.99

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals