2021 05 11 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Napoli vs Udinese at 11 May 2021
Sassuolo vs Juventus at 12 May 2021
Atalanta vs Benevento at 12 May 2021
Bologna vs Genoa at 12 May 2021
Cagliari vs Fiorentina at 12 May 2021
Inter vs Roma at 12 May 2021
Lazio vs Parma at 12 May 2021
Sampdoria vs Spezia at 12 May 2021
Torino vs Milan at 12 May 2021
Crotone vs Verona at 13 May 2021


Napoli vs Udinese at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Napoli and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Napoli

1.38

2.02

-23.0

Draw

5.12

3.44

9.5

Udinese

8.33

4.69

9.3

Over 2.5

1.63

2.21

-16.1

Under 2.5

2.32

1.83

11.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Udinese, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 9.3 %, 11.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Napoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance at home.
Napoli, at home, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Spezia

A

4

1

W

O

G

02 May

Cagliari

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Apr

Torino

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Lazio

H

5

2

W

O

G

18 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Juventus

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Crotone

H

4

3

W

O

G


Udinese in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Udinese in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance as a guest.
Udinese, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Udinese scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 May

Juventus

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Benevento

A

4

2

W

O

G

21 Apr

Cagliari

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Torino

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Atalanta

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Lazio

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Napoli is 0.8 and for the Udinese is -0.163.
The home dynamic for the Napoli is 0.642 and the dynamic as a guest for the Udinese is -0.313.
The offensive ability for the Napoli is 1 and for the Udinese is 0.158.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Napoli is -0.278 and for the Udinese is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Napoli

26%

14%

43%

17%

Udinese

50%

13%

31%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 2.31 goals and Udinese to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 1.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.5 goals and Udinese to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.63

0-1

4.24

1

9.52

2-3

1.96

2

3.22

4+

3.95

3

5.03

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.24

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.71

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.32

1.80

6.94

2-3 goals

1.45

28.33

3.64

4+ goals

3.42

1.78

6.84

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.77

4.31

Un 1.5

3.32

1.80

6.94

Ov 2.5

2.12

3.18

4.66

Un 2.5

1.93

3.67

4.80

Ov 3.5

3.42

1.78

6.84

Un 3.5

1.76

5.01

4.29

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.31

4.61

No Goal

1.71

4.81

4.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.72

2.47

4.39

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

4.81

4.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Sassuolo vs Juventus at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

4.91

2.88

14.4

Draw

4.27

3.60

4.4

Juventus

1.67

2.67

-22.4

Over 2.5

1.50

2.21

-21.4

Under 2.5

2.54

1.83

15.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.4 %, 4.4 %, 15.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Genoa

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 May

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Milan

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Fiorentina

H

3

1

W

O

G

12 Apr

Benevento

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Inter

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Roma

H

2

2

D

O

G


Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Milan

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 May

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Apr

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Parma

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Atalanta

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Genoa

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Apr

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Torino

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Sassuolo is 0.96 and for the Juventus is 0.133.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is 0.022 and the dynamic as a guest for the Juventus is 0.272.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 1 and for the Juventus is 0.021.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -0.278 and for the Juventus is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

34%

27%

28%

11%

Juventus

38%

16%

32%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 0.97 goals and Juventus to score 2.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.14 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 1.2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.15 goals and Juventus to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.63

0-1

3.47

1

6.37

2-3

2.09

2

3.88

4+

4.27

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.47

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

1.68

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

2.20

5.43

2-3 goals

2.48

11.38

1.97

4+ goals

4.59

2.25

2.96

Ov 1.5

2.92

4.88

2.21

Un 1.5

2.77

2.20

5.43

Ov 2.5

3.34

4.37

2.12

Un 2.5

2.58

3.16

3.39

Ov 3.5

4.59

2.25

2.96

Un 3.5

2.58

4.43

2.59

Goal-Goal

4.27

2.78

2.46

No Goal

2.35

4.53

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.83

3.50

2.21

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

4.53

3.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Atalanta vs Benevento at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atalanta and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atalanta

1.18

1.98

-34.2

Draw

7.76

3.42

16.4

Benevento

14.76

4.95

13.4

Over 2.5

1.31

2.17

-30.3

Under 2.5

3.40

1.85

24.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Benevento, Under 2.5 (16.4 %, 13.4 %, 24.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atalanta in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance at home.
Atalanta, at home, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Parma

A

5

2

W

O

G

02 May

Sassuolo

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Bologna

H

5

0

W

O

N

22 Apr

Roma

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Juventus

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Fiorentina

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Udinese

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Verona

A

2

0

W

U

N


Benevento in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Cagliari

H

1

3

L

O

G

01 May

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Udinese

H

2

4

L

O

G

21 Apr

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Lazio

A

3

5

L

O

G

12 Apr

Sassuolo

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Parma

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Juventus

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Atalanta is 0.784 and for the Benevento is -0.837.
The home dynamic for the Atalanta is 0.45 and the dynamic as a guest for the Benevento is -0.241.
The offensive ability for the Atalanta is 1 and for the Benevento is 0.084.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atalanta is -0.243 and for the Benevento is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atalanta and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atalanta

26%

11%

46%

17%

Benevento

50%

14%

30%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 3.22 goals and Benevento to score 0.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.69 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 2.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.54 goals and Benevento to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.81

0-1

4.52

1

10.75

2-3

1.93

2

3.13

4+

3.85

3

5.03

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.52

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.68

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

1.60

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.88

1.73

6.14

2-3 goals

1.39

32.38

4.05

4+ goals

3.47

1.77

6.84

Ov 1.5

1.73

4.77

4.69

Un 1.5

3.88

1.73

6.14

Ov 2.5

2.06

3.12

5.16

Un 2.5

1.91

3.75

4.78

Ov 3.5

3.47

1.77

6.84

Un 3.5

1.71

5.13

4.51

Goal-Goal

2.70

2.29

5.18

No Goal

1.70

4.89

4.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.59

2.43

4.96

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

4.89

4.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Bologna vs Genoa at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bologna and Genoa for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bologna

2.42

2.15

5.2

Draw

3.39

3.80

-3.2

Genoa

3.01

3.69

-6.1

Over 2.5

1.78

2.00

-6.2

Under 2.5

2.07

2.00

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bologna, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bologna in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance at home.
Bologna, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Udinese

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 May

Fiorentina

H

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Atalanta

A

0

5

L

O

N

21 Apr

Torino

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Spezia

H

4

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Inter

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Crotone

A

3

2

W

O

G


Genoa in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance as a guest.
Genoa, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 May

Lazio

A

3

4

L

O

G

24 Apr

Spezia

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Benevento

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Milan

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

Parma

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bologna is -0.096 and for the Genoa is -0.496.
The home dynamic for the Bologna is 0.022 and the dynamic as a guest for the Genoa is -0.385.
The offensive ability for the Bologna is 0.288 and for the Genoa is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bologna is -1 and for the Genoa is -0.478.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bologna

26%

21%

36%

18%

Genoa

37%

26%

26%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.45 goals and Genoa to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.45 goals and Genoa to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Bologna to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

4.10

1

6.76

2-3

2.00

2

3.88

4+

3.86

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.10

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

2.14