# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Napoli vs Udinese at 11 May 2021**** Sassuolo vs Juventus at 12 May 2021**** Atalanta vs Benevento at 12 May 2021**** Bologna vs Genoa at 12 May 2021**** Cagliari vs Fiorentina at 12 May 2021**** Inter vs Roma at 12 May 2021**** Lazio vs Parma at 12 May 2021**** Sampdoria vs Spezia at 12 May 2021**** Torino vs Milan at 12 May 2021**** Crotone vs Verona at 13 May 2021**

###
Napoli vs Udinese at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Napoli** and **Udinese** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **11 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Napoli |
1.38 |
2.02 |
-23.0 |

Draw |
5.12 |
3.44 |
9.5 |

Udinese |
8.33 |
4.69 |
9.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.21 |
-16.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
1.83 |
11.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Udinese, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 9.3 %, 11.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** at home**.

Napoli,** at home**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Spezia |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Apr |
Torino |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Apr |
Lazio |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Inter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Apr |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Apr |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Crotone |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

**Udinese** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Udinese** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Udinese’s performance** as a guest**.

Udinese,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 41.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Udinese scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Udinese was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 May |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Benevento |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Cagliari |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Torino |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Atalanta |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Lazio |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Napoli** is **0.8** and for the **Udinese** is **-0.163.**

The home dynamic for the **Napoli** is **0.642** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Udinese** is **-0.313.**

The offensive ability for the **Napoli** is **1** and for the **Udinese** is **0.158.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Napoli** is **-0.278** and for the **Udinese** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Napoli** and the red line for guest team, **Udinese. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Napoli |
26% |
14% |
43% |
17% |

Udinese |
50% |
13% |
31% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **2.31 ** goals and **Udinese** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.92** goals in the game and the home team **Napoli ** to win by **1.7** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Udinese** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Napoli ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.63 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
9.52 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.22 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
5.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.71 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
1.59 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.32 |
1.80 |
6.94 |

2-3 goals |
1.45 |
28.33 |
3.64 |

4+ goals |
3.42 |
1.78 |
6.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.77 |
4.31 |

Un 1.5 |
3.32 |
1.80 |
6.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
3.18 |
4.66 |

Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
3.67 |
4.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
1.78 |
6.84 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
5.01 |
4.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.31 |
4.61 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
4.81 |
4.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.47 |
4.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
4.81 |
4.64 |

####
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###
Sassuolo vs Juventus at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sassuolo** and **Juventus** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sassuolo |
4.91 |
2.88 |
14.4 |

Draw |
4.27 |
3.60 |
4.4 |

Juventus |
1.67 |
2.67 |
-22.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.21 |
-21.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.54 |
1.83 |
15.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sassuolo, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.4 %, 4.4 %, 15.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sassuolo** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sassuolo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance** at home**.

Sassuolo,** at home**, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Milan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Fiorentina |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Apr |
Benevento |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Apr |
Inter |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Roma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** as a guest**.

Juventus,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Milan |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 May |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Fiorentina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Parma |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Genoa |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Apr |
Napoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Torino |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sassuolo** is **0.96** and for the **Juventus** is **0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Sassuolo** is **0.022** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Juventus** is **0.272.**

The offensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **1** and for the **Juventus** is **0.021.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sassuolo** is **-0.278** and for the **Juventus** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sassuolo** and the red line for guest team, **Juventus. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sassuolo |
34% |
27% |
28% |
11% |

Juventus |
38% |
16% |
32% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **2.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.14** goals in the game and the guest team **Juventus ** to win by **1.2** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sassuolo** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.63 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.55 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
1.68 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
2.20 |
5.43 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
11.38 |
1.97 |

4+ goals |
4.59 |
2.25 |
2.96 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.92 |
4.88 |
2.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
2.20 |
5.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.34 |
4.37 |
2.12 |

Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
3.16 |
3.39 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |
2.25 |
2.96 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
4.43 |
2.59 |

Goal-Goal |
4.27 |
2.78 |
2.46 |

No Goal |
2.35 |
4.53 |
2.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.83 |
3.50 |
2.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
4.53 |
3.13 |

####
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###
Atalanta vs Benevento at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atalanta** and **Benevento** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atalanta |
1.18 |
1.98 |
-34.2 |

Draw |
7.76 |
3.42 |
16.4 |

Benevento |
14.76 |
4.95 |
13.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.31 |
2.17 |
-30.3 |

Under 2.5 |
3.40 |
1.85 |
24.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Benevento, Under 2.5 (16.4 %, 13.4 %, 24.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** at home**.

Atalanta,** at home**, had 11 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 70.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Parma |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Apr |
Bologna |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

22 Apr |
Roma |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Fiorentina |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Udinese |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Verona |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Benevento** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benevento** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance** as a guest**.

Benevento,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 37.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Milan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Udinese |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Genoa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Lazio |
A |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Apr |
Sassuolo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Parma |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Atalanta** is **0.784** and for the **Benevento** is **-0.837.**

The home dynamic for the **Atalanta** is **0.45** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Benevento** is **-0.241.**

The offensive ability for the **Atalanta** is **1** and for the **Benevento** is **0.084.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Atalanta** is **-0.243** and for the **Benevento** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atalanta** and the red line for guest team, **Benevento. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atalanta |
26% |
11% |
46% |
17% |

Benevento |
50% |
14% |
30% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **3.22 ** goals and **Benevento** to score **0.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.69** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **2.75** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Benevento** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.81 |
0-1 |
4.52 |

1 |
10.75 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.13 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
5.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.52 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.68 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
1.60 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.88 |
1.73 |
6.14 |

2-3 goals |
1.39 |
32.38 |
4.05 |

4+ goals |
3.47 |
1.77 |
6.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.73 |
4.77 |
4.69 |

Un 1.5 |
3.88 |
1.73 |
6.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
3.12 |
5.16 |

Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
3.75 |
4.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.47 |
1.77 |
6.84 |

Un 3.5 |
1.71 |
5.13 |
4.51 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.29 |
5.18 |

No Goal |
1.70 |
4.89 |
4.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.43 |
4.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
4.89 |
4.64 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bologna vs Genoa at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bologna** and **Genoa** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bologna |
2.42 |
2.15 |
5.2 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.80 |
-3.2 |

Genoa |
3.01 |
3.69 |
-6.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.00 |
-6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.00 |
1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bologna, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bologna** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bologna** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance** at home**.

Bologna,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 May |
Fiorentina |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Apr |
Torino |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Spezia |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Roma |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Inter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** as a guest**.

Genoa,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 27.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 May |
Lazio |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Milan |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Mar |
Parma |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Bologna** is **-0.096** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Bologna** is **0.022** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Genoa** is **-0.385.**

The offensive ability for the **Bologna** is **0.288** and for the **Genoa** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bologna** is **-1** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.478.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bologna** and the red line for guest team, **Genoa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bologna |
26% |
21% |
36% |
18% |

Genoa |
37% |
26% |
26% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bologna** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bologna** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Bologna ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.42 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
6.76 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
2.14 |