2021 05 11 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Baskonia vs Joventut Badalona at 11 May 2021
Bilbao vs Gran Canaria at 12 May 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Andorra at 12 May 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Baskonia at 13 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Baskonia vs Joventut Badalona at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Joventut Badalona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Baskonia

1.62

2.80

Joventut Badalona

2.35

1.56

Baskonia HC

-2.5

4.50

Joventut Badalona HC

+2.5

-4.50

Point Line

168.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

94

22

9

L 1

83

89

Apr 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

96

92

22

8

W 1

90

92

Apr 11

A

UCAM Murcia

L

87

92

21

8

L 1

88

94

Apr 4

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

68

21

7

W 1

85

72

Mar 28

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

78

99

20

7

L 1

77

101

Mar 21

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

72

20

6

W 1

80

74

Mar 14

H

Real Madrid

L

74

85

19

6

L 1

80

81

Mar 7

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

78

19

5

W 4

86

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Joventut Badalona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 1

A

Unicaja

L

93

102

18

15

L 1

92

101

Apr 28

H

Manresa

W

96

68

18

14

W 2

92

67

Apr 24

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

90

85

17

14

W 1

94

80

Apr 18

A

Real Madrid

L

92

101

16

14

L 3

99

96

Apr 16

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

78

86

16

13

L 2

78

81

Apr 11

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

84

103

16

12

L 1

83

105

Apr 4

A

Valencia Basket

W

102

89

16

11

W 1

105

85

Mar 28

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

78

88

15

11

L 1

77

93

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Joventut Badalona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Joventut Badalona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Baskonia (in the first graph) and by Joventut Badalona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Baskonia will expected to score 85 points and the Joventut Badalona 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Baskonia

Joventut Badalona

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

16.90

16.40

DRB

21.30

19.50

AST-TO

1.23

1.39

TRB

30.30

28.00

FTM

10.30

14.40

BL

2.20

2.40

FTA

13.80

18.00

PF-Fewer

20.10

21.00

ST

7.20

7.70

TO-Fewer

13.70

11.80

Ftper

0.75

0.80

ORBper

0.42

0.44

ORB

9.00

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bilbao vs Gran Canaria at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

2.57

6.42

Gran Canaria

1.53

1.18

Bilbao HC

+4.5

9.50

Gran Canaria HC

-4.5

-9.50

Point Line

165.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Valencia Basket

L

90

99

7

24

L 4

92

95

Apr 21

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

67

86

7

23

L 3

70

81

Apr 15

A

Unicaja

L

74

88

7

22

L 2

74

87

Apr 3

H

Manresa

L

96

108

7

21

L 1

92

106

Mar 28

A

UCAM Murcia

W

90

82

7

20

W 1

91

84

Mar 21

H

Baskonia

L

72

85

6

20

L 2

76

84

Mar 14

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

89

95

6

19

L 1

83

95

Mar 7

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

86

84

6

18

W 2

85

89

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

81

86

15

18

L 1

84

91

May 2

H

UCAM Murcia

W

91

81

15

17

W 2

92

83

Apr 25

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

83

74

14

17

W 1

83

70

Apr 18

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

88

89

13

17

L 2

87

92

Apr 14

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

92

13

16

L 1

83

86

Apr 11

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

103

84

13

15

W 4

99

81

Apr 3

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

84

76

12

15

W 3

78

75

Mar 28

A

Baskonia

W

99

78

11

15

W 2

104

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 81 points and the Gran Canaria 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

14.50

15.60

DRB

20.60

20.80

AST-TO

1.01

1.27

TRB

29.30

29.70

FTM

13.00

13.30

BL

2.30

3.20

FTA

16.70

17.90

PF-Fewer

21.00

20.00

ST

5.70

7.40

TO-Fewer

14.40

12.30

Ftper

0.78

0.74

ORBper

0.42

0.43

ORB

8.60

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unicaja Malaga vs Andorra at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unicaja Malaga and Andorra for Liga ACB, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unicaja Malaga

1.37

1.65

Andorra

3.2

2.55

Unicaja Malaga HC

-6.5

-3.50

Andorra HC

+6.5

3.50

Point Line

157.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unicaja Malaga are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 8

A

UCAM Murcia

L

68

81

15

17

L 1

68

83

May 1

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

102

93

15

16

W 1

98

90

Apr 24

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

78

101

14

16

L 2

73

99

Apr 18

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

61

79

14

15

L 1

64

74

Apr 15

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

88

74

14

14

W 1

83

77

Mar 27

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

93

101

13

14

L 1

93

95

Mar 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

85

83

13

13

W 1

84

85

Mar 16

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

55

79

12

13

L 1

62

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

86

81

14

18

W 2

85

83

May 6

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

85

71

13

18

W 1

85

73

May 1

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

51

79

12

18

L 5

50

81

Apr 28

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

89

99

12

17

L 4

83

97

Apr 25

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

79

12

16

L 3

71

74

Apr 4

H

Baskonia

L

68

82

12

15

L 2

71

81

Mar 29

A

Movistar Estudiantes

L

85

97

12

14

L 1

79

97

Mar 21

H

Manresa

W

92

86

12

13

W 2

88

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unicaja Malaga and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Andorra.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Andorra and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unicaja Malaga.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unicaja Malaga (in the first graph) and by Andorra in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unicaja Malaga will expected to score 81 points and the Andorra 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unicaja Malaga

Andorra

FG%

0.56

0.51

ASS

16.80

15.20

DRB

23.20

23.10

AST-TO

1.18

1.13

TRB

32.80

33.00

FTM

15.30

13.70

BL

2.40

3.00

FTA

19.10

17.80

PF-Fewer

19.40

20.60

ST

5.90

6.30

TO-Fewer

14.20

13.50

Ftper

0.80

0.77

ORBper

0.41

0.43

ORB

9.60

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Gipuzkoa vs Baskonia at 13 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 13 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gipuzkoa

7.5

2.38

Baskonia

1.1

1.73

Gipuzkoa HC

+12.5

3.00

Baskonia HC

-12.5

-3.00

Point Line

161.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

A

Manresa

L

83

91

7

26

L 4

79

90

Apr 29

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

69

98

7

25

L 3

72

92

Apr 24

H

UCAM Murcia

L

78

88

7

24

L 2

78

90

Apr 18

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

71

99

7

23

L 1

66

97

Apr 14

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

90

79

7

22

W 1

90

74

Apr 10

H

Coosur Real Betis

L

68

91

6

22

L 4

67

97

Apr 4

A

Real Madrid

L

71

97

6

21

L 3

77

92

Mar 27

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

66

79

6

20

L 2

65

81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 18

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

94

22

9

L 1

83

89

Apr 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

96

92

22

8

W 1

90

92

Apr 11

A

UCAM Murcia

L

87

92

21

8

L 1

88

94

Apr 4

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

68

21

7

W 1

85

72

Mar 28

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

78

99

20

7

L 1

77

101

Mar 21

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

85

72

20

6

W 1

80

74

Mar 14

H

Real Madrid

L

74

85

19

6

L 1

80

81

Mar 7

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

87

78

19

5

W 4

86

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 76 points and the Baskonia 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gipuzkoa

Baskonia

FG%

0.48

0.53

ASS

13.40

16.90

DRB

20.50

21.30

AST-TO

0.98

1.23

TRB

30.10

30.30

FTM

10.40

10.30

BL

1.90

2.20

FTA

14.80

13.80

PF-Fewer

20.00

20.10

ST

7.90

7.20

TO-Fewer

13.70

13.70

Ftper

0.71

0.75

ORBper

0.47

0.42

ORB

9.60

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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