2021 05 11 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aris vs Panathinaikos at 12 May 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK at 12 May 2021


Aris vs Panathinaikos at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aris

2.20

2.38

-3.4

Draw

3.03

3.75

-6.3

Panathinaikos

3.38

3.21

1.6

Over 2.5

2.67

2.27

6.6

Under 2.5

1.45

1.79

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Panathinaikos, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aris in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 58.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

PAOK

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 May

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

PAOK

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

Panathinaikos

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

AEK

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 45.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 May

Asteras Tripolis

H

2

2

D

O

G

25 Apr

PAOK

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Apr

AEK

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Aris

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Olympiakos

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

PAOK

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Mar

Asteras Tripolis

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Aris is -0.296 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.481.
The home dynamic for the Aris is 0.493 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panathinaikos is -0.005.
The offensive ability for the Aris is 0.167 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.053.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aris is -1 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.478.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aris

33%

28%

18%

21%

Panathinaikos

35%

33%

26%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 1.13 goals and Panathinaikos to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.28 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.70

0-1

3.12

1

4.88

2-3

2.15

2

4.17

4+

4.69

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.12

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.33

2.78

2.94

2-3 goals

2.33

5.07

2.68

4+ goals

1.70

3.55

7.61

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.47

3.36

Un 1.5

3.33

2.78

2.94

Ov 2.5

1.68

7.32

3.72

Un 2.5

3.50

2.71

2.90

Ov 3.5

1.70

3.55

7.61

Un 3.5

2.66

3.80

2.78

Goal-Goal

2.34

2.87

4.45

No Goal

2.40

4.90

2.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

5.73

3.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.92

4.90

2.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Asteras Tripolis vs AEK at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and AEK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

3.75

2.22

18.4

Draw

3.28

3.62

-2.9

AEK

1.98

3.65

-23.1

Over 2.5

2.26

2.84

-9.0

Under 2.5

1.63

1.54

3.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Under 2.5 (18.4 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 54.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Olympiakos

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 May

Panathinaikos

A

2

2

D

O

G

25 Apr

Aris

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Olympiakos

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

AEK

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Aris

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Panathinaikos

H

2

2

D

O

G


AEK in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance as a guest.
AEK, as a guest, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 62.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Panathinaikos

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 May

PAOK

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Olympiakos

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Panathinaikos

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Asteras Tripolis

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Aris

A

3

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Olympiakos

H

1

5

L

O

G

21 Mar

PAOK

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.256 and for the AEK is 0.126.
The home dynamic for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.266 and the dynamic as a guest for the AEK is 0.2.
The offensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.167 and for the AEK is 0.505.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.539 and for the AEK is -0.411.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, AEK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

40%

17%

33%

10%

AEK

50%

34%

1%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 0.87 goals and AEK to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the guest team AEK to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.14 goals and AEK to score 0.8 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

5.00

0-1

2.38

1

4.55

2-3

2.21

2

4.39

4+

7.75

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.72

4

15.62

Un 1.5

2.38

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.83

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.54

Gg

3.33

Ov 3.5

7.75

NoG

1.43

Un 3.5

1.15

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.94

2.10

3.11

2-3 goals

1.37

7.93

6.85

4+ goals

3.58

6.79

1.74

Ov 1.5

1.59

7.64

4.15

Un 1.5

4.94

2.10

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.77

18.58

2.61

Un 2.5

2.58

2.52

4.63

Ov 3.5

3.58

6.79

1.74

Un 3.5

2.11

3.39

4.34

Goal-Goal

2.03

3.95

3.95

No Goal

2.32

3.50

3.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

12.79

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

3.50

4.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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