2021 05 11 Turkey Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Karsiyaka vs Besiktas at 11 May 2021
Fenerbahce vs Darussafaka at 13 May 2021
Efes vs Gaziantep at 14 May 2021
Tofas vs Besiktas at 14 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Karsiyaka vs Besiktas at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Karsiyaka and Besiktas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Karsiyaka

2.07

1.67

Besiktas

1.7

2.50

Karsiyaka HC

+2.5

-3.50

Besiktas HC

-2.5

3.50

Point Line

169.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 30

A

Ormanspor

W

101

61

21

8

W 1

92

66

Apr 10

H

Galatasaray

L

92

94

20

8

L 4

87

92

Apr 4

A

Fenerbahce

L

59

117

20

7

L 3

63

108

Mar 27

H

Bursaspor

L

84

85

20

6

L 2

82

87

Mar 21

H

Anadolu Efes

L

89

98

20

5

L 1

96

89

Mar 13

A

Afyon

W

75

69

20

4

W 4

70

69

Mar 6

H

Buyukcekmece

W

117

82

19

4

W 3

111

83

Feb 27

A

Bahcesehir

W

96

83

18

4

W 2

96

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 30

H

Afyon

W

104

75

18

11

W 5

97

75

Apr 21

A

Buyukcekmece

W

104

89

17

11

W 4

99

90

Apr 15

H

Bahcesehir

W

83

77

16

11

W 3

83

78

Mar 28

A

Turk Telekom

W

94

85

15

11

W 2

94

90

Mar 20

H

Darussafaka

W

98

93

14

11

W 1

101

92

Mar 13

A

Tofas

L

86

89

13

11

L 1

86

84

Mar 6

H

Socar Spor

W

96

94

13

10

W 3

96

96

Feb 28

A

Gaziantep

W

84

77

12

10

W 2

91

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Karsiyaka (in the first graph) and by Besiktas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Karsiyaka will expected to score 83 points and the Besiktas 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Karsiyaka

Besiktas

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

19.20

20.10

DRB

23.90

22.40

AST-TO

1.67

1.58

TRB

33.20

32.90

FTM

16.40

16.00

BL

1.80

3.00

FTA

22.80

20.80

PF-Fewer

18.80

20.60

ST

6.20

7.00

TO-Fewer

11.50

12.70

Ftper

0.72

0.77

ORBper

0.39

0.47

ORB

9.30

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Fenerbahce vs Darussafaka at 13 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fenerbahce and Darussafaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 13 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fenerbahce

1.12

2.14

Darussafaka

5.9

1.88

Fenerbahce HC

+13.5

2.00

Darussafaka HC

-13.5

-2.00

Point Line

162.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fenerbahce are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 7

H

Anadolu Efes

L

84

88

22

8

L 1

91

80

May 4

H

Galatasaray

W

104

79

22

7

W 1

98

77

Apr 11

A

Bursaspor

L

77

82

21

7

L 1

75

84

Apr 4

H

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

117

59

21

6

W 6

125

57

Mar 28

A

Afyon

W

97

87

20

6

W 5

90

87

Mar 21

H

Buyukcekmece

W

81

70

19

6

W 4

77

71

Mar 14

A

Bahcesehir

W

78

61

18

6

W 3

78

61

Mar 7

H

Turk Telekom

W

99

77

17

6

W 2

99

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

A

Anadolu Efes

L

74

84

16

14

L 1

80

77

Apr 21

H

Socar Spor

W

99

78

16

13

W 1

100

80

Apr 18

A

Tofas

L

89

101

15

13

L 1

90

95

Apr 3

A

Gaziantep

W

82

76

15

12

W 2

89

82

Mar 28

H

Fethiye

W

96

81

14

12

W 1

90

86

Mar 20

A

Besiktas

L

93

98

13

12

L 1

94

93

Mar 13

H

Ormanspor

W

90

68

13

11

W 2

82

73

Mar 6

A

Galatasaray

W

98

87

12

11

W 1

92

85

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fenerbahce and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fenerbahce.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fenerbahce (in the first graph) and by Darussafaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fenerbahce will expected to score 83 points and the Darussafaka 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fenerbahce

Darussafaka

FG%

0.60

0.51

ASS

21.60

19.00

DRB

24.00

21.30

AST-TO

1.77

1.62

TRB

31.60

32.80

FTM

13.30

16.50

BL

2.00

2.80

FTA

17.00

21.10

PF-Fewer

16.60

23.60

ST

6.30

8.40

TO-Fewer

12.20

11.70

Ftper

0.78

0.78

ORBper

0.31

0.54

ORB

7.50

11.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Efes vs Gaziantep at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Efes and Gaziantep for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 14 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Efes

1.17

1.35

Gaziantep

4.9

3.88

Efes HC

+11.5

-7.00

Gaziantep HC

-11.5

7.00

Point Line

157.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

H

Darussafaka

W

84

74

29

1

W 7

86

73

May 7

A

Fenerbahce

W

88

84

28

1

W 6

94

78

Apr 12

H

Tofas

W

87

85

27

1

W 5

88

80

Apr 4

A

Bursaspor

W

95

76

26

1

W 4

93

78

Mar 27

H

Socar Spor

W

87

80

25

1

W 3

87

82

Mar 21

A

Pinar Karsiyaka

W

98

89

24

1

W 2

105

86

Mar 14

H

Gaziantep

W

102

63

23

1

W 1

110

68

Mar 7

A

Afyon

L

85

103

22

1

L 1

79

103

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 7

H

Bahcesehir

W

88

77

15

15

W 2

88

78

Apr 24

A

Buyukcekmece

W

90

71

14

15

W 1

85

72

Apr 11

A

Turk Telekom

L

66

84

13

15

L 3

66

89

Apr 3

H

Darussafaka

L

76

82

13

14

L 2

78

81

Mar 27

A

Tofas

L

72

84

13

13

L 1

72

79

Mar 21

H

Socar Spor

W

76

64

13

12

W 1

76

66

Mar 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

63

102

12

12

L 1

68

93

Mar 7

A

Fethiye

W

90

60

12

11

W 1

84

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Efes (in the first graph) and by Gaziantep in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Efes will expected to score 82 points and the Gaziantep 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Efes

Gaziantep

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

22.70

20.30

DRB

24.40

24.10

AST-TO

2.34

1.75

TRB

33.20

33.70

FTM

12.80

12.00

BL

3.10

2.50

FTA

16.90

17.60

PF-Fewer

16.00

20.40

ST

6.90

6.80

TO-Fewer

9.70

11.60

Ftper

0.76

0.69

ORBper

0.36

0.40

ORB

8.80

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tofas vs Besiktas at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tofas and Besiktas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 14 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tofas

1.57

2.58

Besiktas

2.35

1.63

Tofas HC

-3.5

4.00

Besiktas HC

+3.5

-4.00

Point Line

164.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tofas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

Turk Telekom

W

95

87

19

11

W 3

95

92

Apr 18

H

Darussafaka

W

101

89

18

11

W 2

104

88

Apr 15

A

Socar Spor

W

83

62

17

11

W 1

83

64

Apr 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

85

87

16

11

L 1

92

79

Mar 27

H

Gaziantep

W

84

72

16

10

W 3

91

77

Mar 20

A

Fethiye

W

101

76

15

10

W 2

95

80

Mar 13

H

Besiktas

W

89

86

14

10

W 1

90

82

Mar 6

A

Ormanspor

L

76

77

13

10

L 1

70

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Besiktas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 30

H

Afyon

W

104

75

18

11

W 5

97

75

Apr 21

A

Buyukcekmece

W

104

89

17

11

W 4

99

90

Apr 15

H

Bahcesehir

W

83

77

16

11

W 3

83

78

Mar 28

A

Turk Telekom

W

94

85

15

11

W 2

94

90

Mar 20

H

Darussafaka

W

98

93

14

11

W 1

101

92

Mar 13

A

Tofas

L

86

89

13

11

L 1

86

84

Mar 6

H

Socar Spor

W

96

94

13

10

W 3

96

96

Feb 28

A

Gaziantep

W

84

77

12

10

W 2

91

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tofas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Besiktas.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Besiktas and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tofas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tofas (in the first graph) and by Besiktas in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tofas will expected to score 84 points and the Besiktas 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tofas

Besiktas

FG%

0.57

0.54

ASS

22.00

20.10

DRB

21.80

22.40

AST-TO

1.90

1.58

TRB

30.50

32.90

FTM

12.70

16.00

BL

2.60

3.00

FTA

16.70

20.80

PF-Fewer

20.70

20.60

ST

8.40

7.00

TO-Fewer

11.60

12.70

Ftper

0.76

0.77

ORBper

0.40

0.47

ORB

8.70

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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