2021 05 11 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod at 11 May 2021
Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Parma Perm at 11 May 2021
Lokomotiv Kuban vs Khimki at 11 May 2021
Unics vs Zielona Gora at 12 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



CSKA Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod for VTB United League, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.06

1.07

Nizhny Novgorod

10.5

14.73

CSKA Moscow HC

-15.5

-11.50

Nizhny Novgorod HC

+15.5

11.50

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

85

84

17

7

W 1

87

87

Apr 17

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

94

103

16

7

L 1

92

91

Apr 11

H

Astana

W

100

77

16

6

W 1

94

82

Apr 5

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

77

81

15

6

L 1

87

80

Mar 27

H

UNICS

W

102

86

15

5

W 4

112

86

Mar 22

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

94

72

14

5

W 3

90

75

Mar 15

H

BC Khimki

W

92

73

13

5

W 2

93

71

Mar 7

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

67

12

5

W 1

97

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

CSKA Moscow

L

84

85

14

10

L 3

89

74

Apr 21

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

84

86

14

9

L 2

80

89

Apr 17

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

62

70

14

8

L 1

70

69

Apr 14

A

BC Khimki

W

69

64

14

7

W 6

69

62

Apr 11

A

Parma

W

72

67

13

7

W 5

74

70

Apr 3

A

Avtodor

W

99

93

12

7

W 4

94

91

Mar 28

A

Enisey

W

96

86

11

7

W 3

90

91

Mar 14

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

78

57

10

7

W 2

75

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Nizhny Novgorod in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 86 points and the Nizhny Novgorod 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Nizhny Novgorod

FG%

0.58

0.54

ASS

19.50

18.40

DRB

22.30

20.70

AST-TO

1.65

1.46

TRB

32.60

29.20

FTM

19.40

13.10

BL

3.50

1.70

FTA

24.80

17.40

PF-Fewer

20.30

23.20

ST

7.00

7.30

TO-Fewer

11.80

12.60

Ftper

0.78

0.76

ORBper

0.46

0.41

ORB

10.30

8.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Parma Perm at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zenit Saint Petersburg and Parma Perm for VTB United League, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.12

1.09

Parma Perm

6.9

12.11

Zenit Saint Petersburg HC

-12.5

-11.00

Parma Perm HC

+12.5

11.00

Point Line

154.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit Saint Petersburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 17

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

70

62

20

4

W 1

72

64

Apr 14

A

Parma

L

76

78

19

4

L 1

78

82

Apr 5

H

CSKA Moscow

W

81

77

19

3

W 4

86

68

Mar 23

A

Avtodor

W

89

62

18

3

W 3

84

61

Mar 20

H

Enisey

W

84

71

17

3

W 2

79

75

Mar 15

H

Parma

W

89

84

16

3

W 1

91

88

Mar 8

H

BC Khimki

L

78

81

15

3

L 1

78

79

Feb 13

A

CSKA Moscow

W

74

71

15

2

W 1

78

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Parma Perm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 20

A

UNICS

L

51

69

10

14

L 2

56

69

Apr 17

H

Avtodor

L

93

100

10

13

L 1

88

98

Apr 14

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

78

76

10

12

W 1

88

75

Apr 11

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

67

72

9

12

L 1

69

74

Apr 4

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

74

65

9

11

W 2

71

72

Mar 29

A

Astana

W

84

80

8

11

W 1

79

85

Mar 18

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

68

85

7

11

L 3

66

75

Mar 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

84

89

7

10

L 2

95

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit Saint Petersburg and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Parma Perm.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Parma Perm and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit Saint Petersburg.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zenit Saint Petersburg (in the first graph) and by Parma Perm in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zenit Saint Petersburg will expected to score 81 points and the Parma Perm 75 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zenit Saint Petersburg

Parma Perm

FG%

0.57

0.55

ASS

19.20

20.00

DRB

22.80

20.70

AST-TO

1.39

1.34

TRB

31.00

27.90

FTM

18.00

13.90

BL

2.80

2.30

FTA

22.20

18.20

PF-Fewer

21.40

22.00

ST

7.30

6.50

TO-Fewer

13.80

14.90

Ftper

0.81

0.76

ORBper

0.36

0.35

ORB

8.30

7.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Lokomotiv Kuban vs Khimki at 11 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Khimki for VTB United League, which will take place on 11 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.28

1.39

Khimki

3.75

3.55

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-9.5

-6.50

Khimki HC

+9.5

6.50

Point Line

173.5

170.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

A

UNICS

W

98

77

17

6

W 9

107

78

Apr 17

H

CSKA Moscow

W

103

94

16

6

W 8

109

82

Apr 12

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

75

15

6

W 7

97

84

Apr 3

H

Astana

W

90

84

14

6

W 6

84

90

Mar 28

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

105

94

13

6

W 5

100

98

Mar 18

H

Parma

W

85

68

12

6

W 4

87

71

Mar 13

H

Avtodor

W

104

89

11

6

W 3

98

87

Feb 27

H

Enisey

W

100

98

10

6

W 2

94

103

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

H

Avtodor

L

80

84

12

12

L 1

76

82

Apr 21

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

81

65

12

11

W 1

78

72

Apr 17

A

Kalev/Cramo

L

84

91

11

11

L 2

80

94

Apr 14

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

64

69

11

10

L 1

66

71

Apr 12

H

Enisey

W

89

83

11

9

W 3

84

88

Mar 28

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

89

65

10

9

W 2

86

72

Mar 22

A

Zielona Gora

W

89

70

9

9

W 1

84

66

Mar 15

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

92

8

9

L 1

77

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 87 points and the Khimki 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 172.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

Khimki

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

22.30

19.60

DRB

25.00

22.50

AST-TO

1.81

1.63

TRB

33.90

31.40

FTM

16.70

16.40

BL

3.50

3.50

FTA

22.00

20.70

PF-Fewer

20.00

22.30

ST

6.80

7.00

TO-Fewer

12.30

12.00

Ftper

0.76

0.79

ORBper

0.36

0.40

ORB

9.00

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unics vs Zielona Gora at 12 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unics and Zielona Gora for VTB United League, which will take place on 12 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unics

1.26

5.04

Zielona Gora

4.05

1.25

Unics HC

-9.5

8.50

Zielona Gora HC

+9.5

-8.50

Point Line

164.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 25

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

77

98

18

6

L 1

75

86

Apr 22

A

Enisey

W

84

77

18

5

W 3

79

81

Apr 20

H

Parma

W

69

51

17

5

W 2

71

54

Apr 17

A

Astana

W

87

74

16

5

W 1

82

79

Mar 27

A

CSKA Moscow

L

86

102

15

5

L 1

91

89

Mar 13

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

76

49

15

4

W 10

73

51

Feb 27

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

87

56

14

4

W 9

89

58

Feb 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

59

58

13

4

W 8

67

57

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zielona Gora are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Apr 22

A

Astana

L

82

88

13

11

L 3

77

94

Mar 22

H

BC Khimki

L

70

89

13

10

L 2

70

87

Mar 16

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

88

95

13

9

L 1

84

99

Mar 11

H

Enisey

W

117

79

13

8

W 3

110

83

Mar 8

H

Parma

W

95

92

12

8

W 2

97

96

Feb 28

A

BC Khimki

W

99

94

11

8

W 1

100

92

Feb 7

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

93

97

10

8

L 1

96

100

Feb 1

H

CSKA Moscow

W

93

90

10

7

W 4

98

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zielona Gora.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zielona Gora and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unics (in the first graph) and by Zielona Gora in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unics will expected to score 84 points and the Zielona Gora 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unics

Zielona Gora

FG%

0.55

0.57

ASS

16.20

19.00

DRB

20.80

21.30

AST-TO

1.34

1.41

TRB

30.00

31.20

FTM

14.30

14.80

BL

1.60

2.30

FTA

18.70

19.80

PF-Fewer

21.90

21.80

ST

8.30

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.10

13.50

Ftper

0.77

0.74

ORBper

0.44

0.46

ORB

9.20

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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