# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bielefeld vs Hoffenheim at 15 May 2021**** Freiburg vs Bayern Munich at 15 May 2021**** Hertha vs FC Koln at 15 May 2021**** Leverkusen vs Union Berlin at 15 May 2021**

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Stuttgart at 15 May 2021**** Schalke 04 vs Ein Frankfurt at 15 May 2021**** Augsburg vs Werder Bremen at 15 May 2021**** RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg at 16 May 2021**** Mainz vs Dortmund at 16 May 2021**

###
Bielefeld vs Hoffenheim at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bielefeld** and **Hoffenheim** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bielefeld |
2.67 |
2.90 |
-3.0 |

Draw |
3.68 |
3.77 |
-0.6 |

Hoffenheim |
2.52 |
2.56 |
-0.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.88 |
-4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.14 |
0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bielefeld** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bielefeld** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance** at home**.

Bielefeld,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Mar |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Mar |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** as a guest**.

Hoffenheim,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bielefeld** is **0.234** and for the **Hoffenheim** is **0.336.**

The home dynamic for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.388** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.374.**

The offensive ability for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.295** and for the **Hoffenheim** is **0.385.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bielefeld** is **0.664** and for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bielefeld** and the red line for guest team, **Hoffenheim. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bielefeld |
26% |
34% |
24% |
16% |

Hoffenheim |
23% |
35% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.29 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.51 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.75 |
Un 1.5 |
4.29 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.51 |

NoG |
2.30 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.82 |
2.56 |

2-3 goals |
2.75 |
4.04 |
2.57 |

4+ goals |
3.20 |
3.39 |
2.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.77 |
2.56 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.82 |
2.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |
6.33 |
2.22 |

Un 2.5 |
3.41 |
2.59 |
3.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.20 |
3.39 |
2.54 |

Un 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.97 |
2.57 |

Goal-Goal |
3.28 |
2.78 |
2.97 |

No Goal |
2.51 |
7.11 |
2.17 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.31 |
2.35 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
7.11 |
2.32 |

####
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###
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Freiburg** and **Bayern Munich** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Freiburg |
8.87 |
2.72 |
25.5 |

Draw |
5.76 |
3.91 |
8.2 |

Bayern Munich |
1.31 |
2.65 |
-38.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.27 |
1.86 |
-25.0 |

Under 2.5 |
3.70 |
2.17 |
19.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Freiburg, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.5 %, 8.2 %, 19.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** at home**.

Freiburg,** at home**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 May |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Apr |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Mainz |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Bayern Munich** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bayern Munich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance** as a guest**.

Bayern Munich,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
M’gladbach |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Stuttgart |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Werder Bremen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Freiburg** is **-0.032** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.6.**

The home dynamic for the **Freiburg** is **0.238** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.721.**

The offensive ability for the **Freiburg** is **0.207** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Freiburg** is **-0.609** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.176.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Freiburg** and the red line for guest team, **Bayern Munich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Freiburg |
28% |
35% |
15% |
22% |

Bayern Munich |
30% |
26% |
23% |
21% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **0.73 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **3.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.84** goals in the game and the guest team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **2.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Freiburg** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
3.39 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
21.74 |
Un 2.5 |
2.17 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.14 |
3.62 |

2-3 goals |
2.90 |
4.88 |
2.22 |

4+ goals |
2.71 |
3.64 |
2.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.82 |
4.30 |
2.42 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.14 |
3.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
6.65 |
2.23 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.65 |
3.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.64 |
2.81 |

Un 3.5 |
2.72 |
4.05 |
2.59 |

Goal-Goal |
3.40 |
2.94 |
2.74 |

No Goal |
2.26 |
5.95 |
2.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.79 |
5.12 |
2.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.95 |
2.74 |

####
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###
Hertha vs FC Koln at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hertha** and **FC Koln** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hertha |
2.59 |
2.02 |
10.9 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.97 |
-4.7 |

FC Koln |
2.83 |
3.94 |
-10.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.86 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.16 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Hertha, Over 2.5 (10.9 %, 4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** at home**.

Hertha,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 May |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 May |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 May |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Leverkusen |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Mar |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Koln,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Hertha** is **0.492** and for the **FC Koln** is **-0.224.**

The home dynamic for the **Hertha** is **-0.125** and the dynamic as a guest for the **FC Koln** is **-0.442.**

The offensive ability for the **Hertha** is **0.559** and for the **FC Koln** is **0.407.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Hertha** is **-0.118** and for the **FC Koln** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hertha** and the red line for guest team, **FC Koln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hertha |
18% |
31% |
27% |
23% |

FC Koln |
33% |
35% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.27 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hertha** to score **1.56 ** goals and **FC Koln** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and the home team **Hertha ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
4.41 |

1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.55 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.75 |
Un 1.5 |
4.41 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.20 |
3.78 |
3.55 |

2-3 goals |
1.86 |
4.51 |
4.13 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.44 |
4.03 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.96 |
4.05 |
4.10 |

Un 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.78 |
3.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.57 |
3.52 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.73 |
4.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.44 |
4.03 |

Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
4.25 |
3.93 |

Goal-Goal |
2.42 |
2.87 |
4.18 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
7.55 |
3.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.35 |
3.35 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.55 |
3.53 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leverkusen vs Union Berlin at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leverkusen** and **Union Berlin** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leverkusen |
1.88 |
2.07 |
-4.9 |

Draw |
3.75 |
3.94 |
-1.3 |

Union Berlin |
4.18 |
3.79 |
2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.83 |
0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.20 |
-4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** at home**.

Leverkusen,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Bielefeld |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Union Berlin** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Union Berlin** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance** as a guest**.

Union Berlin,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Werder Bremen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Stuttgart |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Apr |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Mar |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
FC Koln |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Leverkusen** is **0.427** and for the **Union Berlin** is **0.056.**

The home dynamic for the **Leverkusen** is **0.139** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Union Berlin** is **-0.253.**

The offensive ability for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.233** and for the **Union Berlin** is **0.259.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leverkusen** is **0.245** and for the **Union Berlin** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leverkusen** and the red line for guest team, **Union Berlin. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leverkusen |
19% |
31% |
25% |
25% |

Union Berlin |
31% |
36% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Union Berlin** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
4.42 |

1 |
5.99 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.44 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.59 |
Un 1.5 |
4.42 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |

6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |

NoG |
2.26 |
Un 3.5 |