2021 05 14 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bielefeld vs Hoffenheim at 15 May 2021
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich at 15 May 2021
Hertha vs FC Koln at 15 May 2021
Leverkusen vs Union Berlin at 15 May 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Stuttgart at 15 May 2021
Schalke 04 vs Ein Frankfurt at 15 May 2021
Augsburg vs Werder Bremen at 15 May 2021
RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg at 16 May 2021
Mainz vs Dortmund at 16 May 2021


Bielefeld vs Hoffenheim at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bielefeld

2.67

2.90

-3.0

Draw

3.68

3.77

-0.6

Hoffenheim

2.52

2.56

-0.6

Over 2.5

1.72

1.88

-4.9

Under 2.5

2.15

2.14

0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bielefeld in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Hertha

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Apr

M’gladbach

A

0

5

L

O

N

20 Apr

Schalke 04

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Augsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Apr

Freiburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Mar

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Mar

Leverkusen

A

2

1

W

O

G


Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Schalke 04

H

4

2

W

O

G

24 Apr

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

M’gladbach

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Leverkusen

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Augsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Bielefeld is 0.234 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.336.
The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.388 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hoffenheim is -0.374.
The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.295 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is 0.664 and for the Hoffenheim is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bielefeld

26%

34%

24%

16%

Hoffenheim

23%

35%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.36 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.42 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.29 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.29

1

5.81

2-3

2.08

2

4.27

4+

3.51

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.75

Un 1.5

4.29

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

3.51

NoG

2.30

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.82

2.56

2-3 goals

2.75

4.04

2.57

4+ goals

3.20

3.39

2.54

Ov 1.5

2.90

3.77

2.56

Un 1.5

2.88

3.82

2.56

Ov 2.5

2.56

6.33

2.22

Un 2.5

3.41

2.59

3.11

Ov 3.5

3.20

3.39

2.54

Un 3.5

2.79

3.97

2.57

Goal-Goal

3.28

2.78

2.97

No Goal

2.51

7.11

2.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.59

5.31

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

7.11

2.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Freiburg vs Bayern Munich at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Freiburg and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Freiburg

8.87

2.72

25.5

Draw

5.76

3.91

8.2

Bayern Munich

1.31

2.65

-38.6

Over 2.5

1.27

1.86

-25.0

Under 2.5

3.70

2.17

19.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.5 %, 8.2 %, 19.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance at home.
Freiburg, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

FC Koln

A

4

1

W

O

G

06 May

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Schalke 04

H

4

0

W

O

N

09 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

M’gladbach

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Mainz

A

0

1

L

U

N


Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 11 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

M’gladbach

H

6

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Mainz

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Apr

Leverkusen

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Union Berlin

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Mar

Stuttgart

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Werder Bremen

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Freiburg is -0.032 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.6.
The home dynamic for the Freiburg is 0.238 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bayern Munich is 0.721.
The offensive ability for the Freiburg is 0.207 and for the Bayern Munich is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Freiburg is -0.609 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.176.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Freiburg and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Freiburg

28%

35%

15%

22%

Bayern Munich

30%

26%

23%

21%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 0.73 goals and Bayern Munich to score 3.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.84 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 2.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.32 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.83

1

5.62

2-3

2.25

2

5.00

4+

3.39

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.83

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

21.74

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

3.39

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.14

3.62

2-3 goals

2.90

4.88

2.22

4+ goals

2.71

3.64

2.81

Ov 1.5

2.82

4.30

2.42

Un 1.5

2.46

3.14

3.62

Ov 2.5

2.50

6.65

2.23

Un 2.5

3.03

2.65

3.41

Ov 3.5

2.71

3.64

2.81

Un 3.5

2.72

4.05

2.59

Goal-Goal

3.40

2.94

2.74

No Goal

2.26

5.95

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.79

5.12

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

2.43

5.95

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Hertha vs FC Koln at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hertha

2.59

2.02

10.9

Draw

3.35

3.97

-4.7

FC Koln

2.83

3.94

-10.0

Over 2.5

2.01

1.86

4.0

Under 2.5

1.85

2.16

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Over 2.5 (10.9 %, 4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hertha in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Schalke 04

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 May

Bielefeld

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 May

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 May

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Leverkusen

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Mar

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N


FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Freiburg

H

1

4

L

O

G

23 Apr

Augsburg

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Apr

RB Leipzig

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Leverkusen

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Mainz

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Dortmund

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Mar

Union Berlin

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Hertha is 0.492 and for the FC Koln is -0.224.
The home dynamic for the Hertha is -0.125 and the dynamic as a guest for the FC Koln is -0.442.
The offensive ability for the Hertha is 0.559 and for the FC Koln is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hertha is -0.118 and for the FC Koln is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hertha

18%

31%

27%

23%

FC Koln

33%

35%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.27 goals and FC Koln to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.56 goals and FC Koln to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Hertha to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

4.41

1

5.99

2-3

2.03

2

4.26

4+

3.55

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.75

Un 1.5

4.41

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.55

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.78

3.55

2-3 goals

1.86

4.51

4.13

4+ goals

2.17

3.44

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.05

4.10

Un 1.5

2.20

3.78

3.55

Ov 2.5

1.77

6.57

3.52

Un 2.5

2.39

2.73

4.62

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.44

4.03

Un 3.5

1.96

4.25

3.93

Goal-Goal

2.42

2.87

4.18

No Goal

1.67

7.55

3.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.35

3.35

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

7.55

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Leverkusen vs Union Berlin at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Union Berlin for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leverkusen

1.88

2.07

-4.9

Draw

3.75

3.94

-1.3

Union Berlin

4.18

3.79

2.5

Over 2.5

1.86

1.83

0.9

Under 2.5

1.99

2.20

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Union Berlin, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leverkusen in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Werder Bremen

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Bayern Munich

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

FC Koln

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Schalke 04

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

14 Mar

Bielefeld

H

1

2

L

O

G


Union Berlin in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Union Berlin in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Union Berlin’s performance as a guest.
Union Berlin, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 35.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Union Berlin scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Union Berlin was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Wolfsburg

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Werder Bremen

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Stuttgart

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Bayern Munich

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Mar

Ein Frankfurt

A

2

5

L

O

G

13 Mar

FC Koln

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Leverkusen is 0.427 and for the Union Berlin is 0.056.
The home dynamic for the Leverkusen is 0.139 and the dynamic as a guest for the Union Berlin is -0.253.
The offensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.233 and for the Union Berlin is 0.259.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leverkusen is 0.245 and for the Union Berlin is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Union Berlin.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leverkusen

19%

31%

25%

25%

Union Berlin

31%

36%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.67 goals and Union Berlin to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.56 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.42

1

5.99

2-3

2.07

2

4.37

4+

3.44

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.59

Un 1.5

4.42

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.83

6+

32.26

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.44

NoG

2.26

Un 3.5