# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Notts County vs Bromley at 15 May 2021**** Maidenhead vs Sutton at 15 May 2021**** Yeovil vs King’s Lynn at 15 May 2021**** Weymouth vs Altrincham at 15 May 2021**** Eastleigh vs Barnet at 15 May 2021**** Dag and Red vs Halifax at 15 May 2021**** Chesterfield vs Wealdstone at 15 May 2021**** Boreham Wood vs Wrexham at 15 May 2021**** Aldershot vs Hartlepool at 15 May 2021**** Solihull vs Woking at 15 May 2021**

###
Notts County vs Bromley at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Notts County** and **Bromley** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Notts County |
2.07 |
2.65 |
-10.6 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.66 |
-1.2 |

Bromley |
3.21 |
2.87 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.01 |
-4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.99 |
-1.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bromley (3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** at home**.

Notts County,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Maidenhead |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 May |
Barnet |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 May |
Sutton |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

01 May |
Altrincham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Apr |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Torquay |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bromley** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bromley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance** as a guest**.

Bromley,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 May |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 May |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Chesterfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Woking |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Dag and Red |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Notts County** is **0.532** and for the **Bromley** is **0.616.**

The home dynamic for the **Notts County** is **0.089** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bromley** is **0.192.**

The offensive ability for the **Notts County** is **0.648** and for the **Bromley** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Notts County** is **-0.518** and for the **Bromley** is **0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Notts County** and the red line for guest team, **Bromley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Notts County |
24% |
38% |
23% |
15% |

Bromley |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Notts County** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Bromley** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Notts County ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Notts County** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Bromley** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.23 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.83 |
3.05 |

2-3 goals |
2.68 |
3.78 |
2.77 |

4+ goals |
2.84 |
3.33 |
2.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.61 |
2.80 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.83 |
3.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.55 |
2.36 |

Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.55 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
3.33 |
2.88 |

Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.80 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.67 |
3.12 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
6.79 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.55 |
2.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
6.79 |
2.68 |

####
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###
Maidenhead vs Sutton at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maidenhead** and **Sutton** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maidenhead |
4.50 |
3.00 |
11.1 |

Draw |
3.64 |
3.64 |
0.0 |

Sutton |
1.72 |
2.55 |
-18.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.01 |
-5.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.99 |
-1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Maidenhead (11.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** at home**.

Maidenhead,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

08 May |
Hartlepool |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 May |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Weymouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Woking |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Wealdstone |
A |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Sutton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sutton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance** as a guest**.

Sutton,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Woking |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 May |
Notts County |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Apr |
Barnet |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Altrincham |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Apr |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Maidenhead** is **0.065** and for the **Sutton** is **0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.089** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sutton** is **0.494.**

The offensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.207** and for the **Sutton** is **0.726.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.609** and for the **Sutton** is **-0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maidenhead** and the red line for guest team, **Sutton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maidenhead |
24% |
42% |
21% |
12% |

Sutton |
25% |
34% |
25% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **0.87 ** goals and **Sutton** to score **1.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Sutton ** to win by **0.87** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Sutton** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.31 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.38 |
4.05 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
3.21 |
3.55 |
2.46 |

4+ goals |
3.47 |
3.42 |
2.39 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.29 |
3.51 |
2.43 |

Un 1.5 |
2.38 |
4.05 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.76 |
2.00 |

Un 2.5 |
3.19 |
2.48 |
3.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.47 |
3.42 |
2.39 |

Un 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.70 |
2.62 |

Goal-Goal |
3.92 |
2.65 |
2.72 |

No Goal |
2.30 |
7.08 |
2.36 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.95 |
5.78 |
2.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
7.08 |
2.54 |

####
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###
Yeovil vs King’s Lynn at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Yeovil** and **King’s Lynn** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Yeovil |
1.45 |
1.96 |
-17.9 |

Draw |
4.65 |
4.05 |
3.2 |

King’s Lynn |
5.97 |
4.12 |
7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.96 |
-13.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.04 |
6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 7.5 %, 6.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Yeovil** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Yeovil** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance** at home**.

Yeovil,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 May |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 May |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 May |
Wealdstone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**King’s Lynn** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **King’s Lynn** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance** as a guest**.

King’s Lynn,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 19.3% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Chesterfield |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 May |
Boreham Wood |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Apr |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Yeovil** is **-0.331** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.664.**

The home dynamic for the **Yeovil** is **0.103** and the dynamic as a guest for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.645.**

The offensive ability for the **Yeovil** is **-0.322** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Yeovil** is **-0.245** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Yeovil** and the red line for guest team, **King’s Lynn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Yeovil |
24% |
24% |
26% |
26% |

King’s Lynn |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Yeovil** to score **2.24 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.01** goals in the game and the home team **Yeovil ** to win by **1.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Yeovil** to score **1.53 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Yeovil ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.02 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
1.71 |
5.47 |
4.33 |

4+ goals |
1.80 |
3.59 |
6.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.63 |
4.81 |

Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.02 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
7.15 |
4.75 |

Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.81 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
3.59 |
6.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.02 |
4.25 |
3.70 |

Goal-Goal |
2.03 |
3.05 |
5.57 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
5.91 |
3.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
5.59 |
4.56 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.91 |
2.96 |

####
Go to Top

###
Weymouth vs Altrincham at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Weymouth** and **Altrincham** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Weymouth |
2.27 |
2.66 |
-6.5 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.68 |
-2.3 |

Altrincham |
3.10 |
2.84 |
3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.02 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.98 |
-4.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Altrincham (3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Weymouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Weymouth** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance** at home**.

Weymouth,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 35.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 May |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 May |
Barnet |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Woking |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Apr |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Apr |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Altrincham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Altrincham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance** as a guest**.

Altrincham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 41.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 May |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 May |
Notts County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Barnet |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Mar |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Weymouth** is **-0.331** and for the **Altrincham** is **-0.8.**

The home dynamic for the **Weymouth** is **-0.302** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Altrincham** is **0.064.**

The offensive ability for the **Weymouth** is **-0.172** and for the **Altrincham** is **-0.281.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Weymouth** is **-0.636** and for the **Altrincham** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Weymouth** and the red line for guest team, **Altrincham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Weymouth |
24% |
37% |
23% |
15% |

Altrincham |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Weymouth** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Altrincham** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Weymouth** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Altrincham** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.21 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |