2021 05 14 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Notts County vs Bromley at 15 May 2021
Maidenhead vs Sutton at 15 May 2021
Yeovil vs King’s Lynn at 15 May 2021
Weymouth vs Altrincham at 15 May 2021
Eastleigh vs Barnet at 15 May 2021
Dag and Red vs Halifax at 15 May 2021
Chesterfield vs Wealdstone at 15 May 2021
Boreham Wood vs Wrexham at 15 May 2021
Aldershot vs Hartlepool at 15 May 2021
Solihull vs Woking at 15 May 2021


Notts County vs Bromley at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

2.07

2.65

-10.6

Draw

3.51

3.66

-1.2

Bromley

3.21

2.87

3.7

Over 2.5

1.84

2.01

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.95

1.99

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bromley (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Maidenhead

A

4

0

W

O

N

08 May

Barnet

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 May

Sutton

H

3

2

W

O

G

01 May

Altrincham

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Torquay

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Apr

Eastleigh

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Apr

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G


Bromley in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 May

Torquay

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 May

Hartlepool

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Woking

A

4

3

W

O

G

10 Apr

Dag and Red

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Notts County is 0.532 and for the Bromley is 0.616.
The home dynamic for the Notts County is 0.089 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is 0.192.
The offensive ability for the Notts County is 0.648 and for the Bromley is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is -0.518 and for the Bromley is 0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

24%

38%

23%

15%

Bromley

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.51 goals and Bromley to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.3 goals and Bromley to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.95

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.23

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.83

3.05

2-3 goals

2.68

3.78

2.77

4+ goals

2.84

3.33

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.61

2.80

Un 1.5

2.43

3.83

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.55

2.36

Un 2.5

3.01

2.55

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.84

3.33

2.88

Un 3.5

2.59

3.80

2.85

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.67

3.12

No Goal

2.14

6.79

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

5.55

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

6.79

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Sutton at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

4.50

3.00

11.1

Draw

3.64

3.64

0.0

Sutton

1.72

2.55

-18.9

Over 2.5

1.80

2.01

-5.8

Under 2.5

1.93

1.99

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead (11.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Notts County

H

0

4

L

O

N

08 May

Hartlepool

A

4

2

W

O

G

03 May

Wrexham

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

King’s Lynn

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Weymouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Woking

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Wealdstone

A

6

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G


Sutton in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Woking

H

3

2

W

O

G

08 May

Weymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 May

Notts County

A

2

3

L

O

G

01 May

Aldershot

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Apr

Barnet

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Altrincham

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Apr

Torquay

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Maidenhead is 0.065 and for the Sutton is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is -0.089 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sutton is 0.494.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.207 and for the Sutton is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.609 and for the Sutton is -0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

24%

42%

21%

12%

Sutton

25%

34%

25%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 0.87 goals and Sutton to score 1.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Sutton to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.22 goals and Sutton to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.05

1

5.38

2-3

2.00

2

3.94

4+

3.95

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.05

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

4.05

3.01

2-3 goals

3.21

3.55

2.46

4+ goals

3.47

3.42

2.39

Ov 1.5

3.29

3.51

2.43

Un 1.5

2.38

4.05

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.84

6.76

2.00

Un 2.5

3.19

2.48

3.53

Ov 3.5

3.47

3.42

2.39

Un 3.5

2.88

3.70

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.92

2.65

2.72

No Goal

2.30

7.08

2.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.95

5.78

2.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

7.08

2.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Yeovil vs King’s Lynn at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

1.45

1.96

-17.9

Draw

4.65

4.05

3.2

King’s Lynn

5.97

4.12

7.5

Over 2.5

1.55

1.96

-13.5

Under 2.5

2.35

2.04

6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 7.5 %, 6.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 56.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Aldershot

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 May

Wrexham

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 May

Halifax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 May

Wealdstone

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Solihull

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Solihull

A

1

5

L

O

G

17 Apr

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Mar

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G


King’s Lynn in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 14 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 19.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Chesterfield

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 May

Boreham Wood

A

1

5

L

O

G

01 May

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Stockport

H

0

4

L

O

N

24 Apr

Dag and Red

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Apr

Aldershot

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Halifax

A

2

4

L

O

G

13 Apr

Stockport

A

0

4

L

O

N


The form score for the Yeovil is -0.331 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.664.
The home dynamic for the Yeovil is 0.103 and the dynamic as a guest for the King’s Lynn is -0.645.
The offensive ability for the Yeovil is -0.322 and for the King’s Lynn is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is -0.245 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

24%

24%

26%

26%

King’s Lynn

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 2.24 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.53 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.80

1

5.68

2-3

2.08

2

4.39

4+

3.92

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

3.02

2.92

2-3 goals

1.71

5.47

4.33

4+ goals

1.80

3.59

6.07

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.63

4.81

Un 1.5

3.06

3.02

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.15

4.75

Un 2.5

2.73

2.81

3.61

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.59

6.07

Un 3.5

2.02

4.25

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.03

3.05

5.57

No Goal

1.90

5.91

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.66

5.59

4.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

5.91

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Weymouth vs Altrincham at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Weymouth and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Weymouth

2.27

2.66

-6.5

Draw

3.39

3.68

-2.3

Altrincham

3.10

2.84

3.0

Over 2.5

2.02

2.02

0.0

Under 2.5

1.83

1.98

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Weymouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance at home.
Weymouth, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 35.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 May

Sutton

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 May

Barnet

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Woking

A

4

2

W

O

G

27 Apr

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Apr

Aldershot

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Apr

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Halifax

A

2

3

L

O

G


Altrincham in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 41.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 May

Solihull

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 May

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Barnet

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Sutton

H

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Halifax

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Mar

King’s Lynn

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Weymouth is -0.331 and for the Altrincham is -0.8.
The home dynamic for the Weymouth is -0.302 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is 0.064.
The offensive ability for the Weymouth is -0.172 and for the Altrincham is -0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Weymouth is -0.636 and for the Altrincham is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Weymouth and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Weymouth

24%

37%

23%

15%

Altrincham

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.36 goals and Altrincham to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Weymouth to score 1.29 goals and Altrincham to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.92

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.21

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-