2021 05 14 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sociedad vs Valladolid at 16 May 2021
Valencia vs Eibar at 16 May 2021
Getafe vs Levante at 16 May 2021
Cadiz vs Elche at 16 May 2021
Barcelona vs Celta at 16 May 2021
Ath Madrid vs Osasuna at 16 May 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Real Madrid at 16 May 2021
Alaves vs Granada at 16 May 2021
Betis vs Huesca at 16 May 2021
Villarreal vs Sevilla at 16 May 2021


Sociedad vs Valladolid at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sociedad and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sociedad

1.71

1.90

-5.8

Draw

3.73

4.07

-2.2

Valladolid

5.52

4.37

4.8

Over 2.5

2.06

1.99

1.7

Under 2.5

1.80

2.01

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sociedad in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance at home.
Sociedad, at home, had 8 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Ath Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 May

Elche

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 May

Huesca

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Celta

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Sevilla

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Valencia

A

2

2

D

O

G

07 Apr

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G


Valladolid in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 9 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 May

Villarreal

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 May

Valencia

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 May

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Apr

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Apr

Barcelona

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Sociedad is 0.073 and for the Valladolid is -0.336.
The home dynamic for the Sociedad is 0.146 and the dynamic as a guest for the Valladolid is -0.268.
The offensive ability for the Sociedad is 0.586 and for the Valladolid is 0.237.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sociedad is -0.155 and for the Valladolid is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sociedad and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sociedad

21%

27%

29%

23%

Valladolid

40%

32%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.67 goals and Valladolid to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sociedad to score 1.55 goals and Valladolid to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Sociedad to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.89

1

5.71

2-3

2.02

2

4.17

4+

4.02

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.38

3.13

3.84

2-3 goals

1.66

5.56

4.58

4+ goals

2.09

3.32

4.53

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.54

4.56

Un 1.5

2.38

3.13

3.84

Ov 2.5

1.66

6.72

4.03

Un 2.5

2.25

2.91

4.73

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.32

4.53

Un 3.5

1.85

4.40

4.30

Goal-Goal

2.27

2.93

4.58

No Goal

1.66

6.34

4.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

5.23

3.73

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

6.34

3.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valencia vs Eibar at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Eibar for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valencia

2.84

2.15

11.3

Draw

3.40

3.91

-3.8

Eibar

2.52

3.60

-11.9

Over 2.5

2.03

1.97

1.5

Under 2.5

1.82

2.03

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (11.3 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valencia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 May

Valladolid

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 May

Barcelona

H

2

3

L

O

G

24 Apr

Alaves

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Osasuna

A

1

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Betis

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Sociedad

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Apr

Cadiz

A

1

2

L

O

G


Eibar in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance as a guest.
Eibar, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 May

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 May

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Alaves

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Apr

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Apr

Granada

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Apr

Ath Madrid

A

0

5

L

O

N

10 Apr

Levante

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Valencia is -0.274 and for the Eibar is -0.016.
The home dynamic for the Valencia is 0.203 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is -0.404.
The offensive ability for the Valencia is 0.533 and for the Eibar is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valencia is -0.545 and for the Eibar is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Eibar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valencia

23%

28%

29%

20%

Eibar

34%

34%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.16 goals and Eibar to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.46 goals and Eibar to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Valencia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.95

1

5.71

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.86

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.95

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.24

3.20

2-3 goals

1.88

5.05

3.71

4+ goals

2.38

3.16

3.81

Ov 1.5

2.02

4.18

3.74

Un 1.5

2.64

3.24

3.20

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.21

3.33

Un 2.5

2.57

2.82

3.91

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.16

3.81

Un 3.5

2.08

4.25

3.52

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.86

4.06

No Goal

1.89

6.28

3.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.06

3.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.28

3.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Getafe vs Levante at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Getafe and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Getafe

1.68

2.02

-10.0

Draw

3.79

3.79

0.0

Levante

5.43

4.17

5.6

Over 2.5

2.21

2.00

4.8

Under 2.5

1.67

2.00

-9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Over 2.5 (5.6 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Getafe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance at home.
Getafe, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Celta

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 May

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 May

Villarreal

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Apr

Huesca

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Apr

Barcelona

A

2

5

L

O

G

18 Apr

Real Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N


Levante in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Barcelona

H

3

3

D

O

G

08 May

Alaves

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Apr

Celta

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Sevilla

H

0

1

L

U

N

18 Apr

Villarreal

H

1

5

L

O

G

10 Apr

Eibar

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Apr

Huesca

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Getafe is -0.5 and for the Levante is -0.584.
The home dynamic for the Getafe is -0.096 and the dynamic as a guest for the Levante is -0.17.
The offensive ability for the Getafe is -0.648 and for the Levante is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Getafe is -0.273 and for the Levante is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Getafe and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Getafe

19%

35%

20%

26%

Levante

33%

41%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.58 goals and Levante to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.51 goals and Levante to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.62

0-1

3.86

1

5.13

2-3

2.05

2

4.13

4+

3.92

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.88

Un 1.5

3.86

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

4.05

3.28

2-3 goals

2.10

3.41

4.35

4+ goals

1.72

4.47

5.10

Ov 1.5

1.95

3.71

4.58

Un 1.5

2.23

4.05

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.59

8.77

3.88

Un 2.5

2.75

2.42

4.47

Ov 3.5

1.72

4.47

5.10

Un 3.5

2.14

3.60

3.91

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.70

4.86

No Goal

1.73

7.20

3.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

6.96

3.58

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

7.20

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cadiz vs Elche at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cadiz and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cadiz

3.22

2.19

14.6

Draw

3.08

3.73

-5.7

Elche

2.47

3.64

-13.0

Over 2.5

2.40

2.03

7.6

Under 2.5

1.59

1.97

-12.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cadiz, Over 2.5 (14.6 %, 7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cadiz in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cadiz in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cadiz’s performance at home.
Cadiz, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Cadiz scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cadiz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Osasuna

A

2

3

L

O

G

08 May

Huesca

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 May

Granada

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Real Madrid

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Apr

Celta

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G


Elche in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 May

Sociedad

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Cadiz is 0.105 and for the Elche is -0.496.
The home dynamic for the Cadiz is -0.217 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.63.
The offensive ability for the Cadiz is 0.322 and for the Elche is -0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cadiz is -0.245 and for the Elche is -0.631.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cadiz and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cadiz

22%

35%

22%

22%

Elche

31%

39%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cadiz to score 0.98 goals and Elche to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cadiz to score 1.43 goals and Elche to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Cadiz to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.83

1

5.18

2-3

2.05

2

4.08

4+

3.98

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.83

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-