2021 05 14 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Montpellier vs Brest at 16 May 2021
Paris SG vs Reims at 16 May 2021
Nice vs Strasbourg at 16 May 2021
Monaco vs Rennes at 16 May 2021
Marseille vs Angers at 16 May 2021
Lorient vs Metz at 16 May 2021
Lille vs St Etienne at 16 May 2021
Dijon vs Nantes at 16 May 2021
Bordeaux vs Lens at 16 May 2021
Nimes vs Lyon at 16 May 2021


Montpellier vs Brest at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Montpellier and Brest for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Montpellier

2.35

1.90

10.1

Draw

3.83

4.12

-1.8

Brest

2.82

4.33

-12.4

Over 2.5

1.60

2.15

-16.0

Under 2.5

2.34

1.87

10.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Montpellier, Under 2.5 (10.1 %, 10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Montpellier in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance at home.
Montpellier, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 15 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 15 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Strasbourg

A

3

2

W

O

G

02 May

St Etienne

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Nice

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Apr

Lille

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Marseille

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Angers

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G


Brest in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance as a guest.
Brest, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Nice

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 May

Nantes

H

1

4

L

O

G

24 Apr

St Etienne

A

2

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Nimes

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Mar

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Montpellier is -0.089 and for the Brest is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Montpellier is -0.174 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brest is -0.63.
The offensive ability for the Montpellier is 1 and for the Brest is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Montpellier is -1 and for the Brest is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Montpellier and the red line for guest team, Brest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Montpellier

25%

18%

43%

14%

Brest

40%

35%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.58 goals and Brest to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Montpellier to score 1.46 goals and Brest to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Montpellier to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.85

1

6.25

2-3

1.87

2

3.64

4+

4.83

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.85

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.56

2.60

2.99

2-3 goals

1.40

8.34

6.00

4+ goals

2.88

2.62

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.64

5.18

5.11

Un 1.5

3.56

2.60

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.66

5.90

4.36

Un 2.5

2.17

3.26

4.28

Ov 3.5

2.88

2.62

3.70

Un 3.5

1.75

4.84

4.51

Goal-Goal

2.02

3.15

5.36

No Goal

1.82

5.51

3.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

4.89

4.60

NG+Un 2.5

1.91

5.51

3.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Paris SG vs Reims at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Reims for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.12

1.87

-35.8

Draw

9.91

3.98

15.0

Reims

21.73

4.65

16.9

Over 2.5

1.36

2.07

-25.2

Under 2.5

3.07

1.93

19.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Reims, Under 2.5 (15 %, 16.9 %, 19.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 12 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 37 points, 68.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Rennes

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 May

Lens

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

St Etienne

H

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Strasbourg

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Mar

Lyon

A

4

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G


Reims in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance as a guest.
Reims, as a guest, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Monaco

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 May

Nimes

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Apr

Marseille

H

1

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Metz

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Nice

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Rennes

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Mar

Lyon

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Paris SG is 0.669 and for the Reims is -0.32.
The home dynamic for the Paris SG is 0.331 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reims is -0.087.
The offensive ability for the Paris SG is 0.674 and for the Reims is -0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Paris SG is -1 and for the Reims is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Reims.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

20%

29%

30%

22%

Reims

39%

36%

19%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 3.18 goals and Reims to score 0.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.51 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.52 goals and Reims to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.83

1

5.46

2-3

1.95

2

3.91

4+

4.41

3

3.89

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.83

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.35

3.58

2-3 goals

1.68

4.98

4.89

4+ goals

1.91

3.20

6.14

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.25

5.21

Un 1.5

2.37

3.35

3.58

Ov 2.5

1.57

6.82

4.65

Un 2.5

2.30

2.86

4.66

Ov 3.5

1.91

3.20

6.14

Un 3.5

1.87

4.28

4.35

Goal-Goal

2.17

2.82

5.40

No Goal

1.66

6.54

4.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

5.46

4.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.84

6.54

3.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nice vs Strasbourg at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

3.47

2.16

17.5

Draw

3.63

3.75

-0.9

Strasbourg

2.08

3.69

-21.0

Over 2.5

1.85

2.37

-11.9

Under 2.5

1.98

1.73

7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice, Under 2.5 (17.5 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Brest

H

3

2

W

O

G

01 May

Lille

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Montpellier

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Dijon

A

0

2

L

U

N

11 Apr

Reims

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Nantes

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Marseille

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lorient

A

1

1

D

U

G


Strasbourg in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance as a guest.
Strasbourg, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Montpellier

H

2

3

L

O

G

30 Apr

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Paris SG

H

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Bordeaux

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Lens

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Mar

Rennes

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Nice is 0.266 and for the Strasbourg is -0.336.
The home dynamic for the Nice is -0.253 and the dynamic as a guest for the Strasbourg is -0.17.
The offensive ability for the Nice is -0.172 and for the Strasbourg is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is -0.636 and for the Strasbourg is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Strasbourg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

26%

29%

33%

12%

Strasbourg

39%

36%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.06 goals and Strasbourg to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Strasbourg to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.3 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Nice to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.24

1

4.83

2-3

1.99

2

3.72

4+

5.32

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.24

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.37

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.78

3.03

3.22

2-3 goals

1.73

4.84

4.61

4+ goals

3.08

3.08

2.85

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.19

3.95

Un 1.5

2.78

3.03

3.22

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.92

3.10

Un 2.5

2.44

2.81

4.28

Ov 3.5

3.08

3.08

2.85

Un 3.5

2.02

3.94

3.96

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.74

4.19

No Goal

1.94

5.37

3.36

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.70

3.22

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

5.37

3.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Monaco vs Rennes at 16 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 16 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monaco

1.70

2.00

-8.8

Draw

3.89

3.88

0.1

Rennes

5.05

4.13

4.4

Over 2.5

1.89

2.13

-6.0

Under 2.5

1.94

1.89

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rennes, Under 2.5 (0.1 %, 4.4 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monaco in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance at home.
Monaco, at home, had 11 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 15 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Reims

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 May

Lyon

H

2

3

L

O

G

25 Apr

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Bordeaux

A

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Apr

Metz

H

4

0

W

O

N

19 Mar

St Etienne

A

4

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Lille

H

0

0

D

U

N


Rennes in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 7 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Paris SG

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 May

Bordeaux

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Apr

Dijon

H

5

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Nantes

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Reims

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G

14 Mar

Strasbourg

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Monaco is 0.774 and for the Rennes is 0.4.
The home dynamic for the Monaco is 0.495 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rennes is 0.094.
The offensive ability for the Monaco is 1 and for the Rennes is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Monaco is 1 and for the Rennes is -0.288.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monaco and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monaco

23%

27%

33%

17%

Rennes

37%

36%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.76 goals and Rennes to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.44 goals and Rennes to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.76

1

5.49

2-3

1.93

2

3.79

4+

4.61

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.76

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-