2021 05 14 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Newcastle vs Man City at 14 May 2021
Burnley vs Leeds at 15 May 2021
Southampton vs Fulham at 15 May 2021
Brighton vs West Ham at 15 May 2021
West Brom vs Liverpool at 16 May 2021
Tottenham vs Wolves at 16 May 2021
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa at 16 May 2021
Everton vs Sheffield United at 16 May 2021


Newcastle vs Man City at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 14 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

11.28

4.78

12.1

Draw

6.00

4.29

6.6

Man City

1.28

1.79

-22.3

Over 2.5

1.53

1.86

-11.6

Under 2.5

2.48

2.16

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.1 %, 6.6 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 May

Leicester

A

4

2

W

O

G

02 May

Arsenal

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Liverpool

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

West Ham

H

3

2

W

O

G

11 Apr

Burnley

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Tottenham

H

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Brighton

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Mar

Aston Villa

H

1

1

D

U

G


Man City in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 13 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 42 points, 82.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Chelsea

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 May

Crystal Palace

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Aston Villa

A

2

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Mar

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

10 Mar

Southampton

H

5

2

W

O

G

07 Mar

Man United

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Newcastle is 0.435 and for the Man City is 0.384.
The home dynamic for the Newcastle is -0.217 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 0.887.
The offensive ability for the Newcastle is 0.559 and for the Man City is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newcastle is -1 and for the Man City is 0.09.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

41%

27%

24%

8%

Man City

16%

30%

27%

27%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 0.51 goals and Man City to score 2.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.08 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 2.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 0.98 goals and Man City to score 1.66 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.35

1

6.06

2-3

2.00

2

4.31

4+

3.75

3

3.72

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.35

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.87

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.35

3.54

1.89

2-3 goals

4.11

6.19

1.68

4+ goals

6.21

3.10

1.93

Ov 1.5

4.65

4.60

1.76

Un 1.5

5.35

3.54

1.89

Ov 2.5

4.22

6.23

1.66

Un 2.5

5.70

3.16

1.97

Ov 3.5

6.21

3.10

1.93

Un 3.5

4.43

5.01

1.74

Goal-Goal

4.30

2.96

2.33

No Goal

5.42

7.75

1.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.59

4.80

1.95

NG+Un 2.5

4.70

7.75

1.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burnley vs Leeds at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

3.08

2.75

3.9

Draw

3.59

3.76

-1.3

Leeds

2.30

2.70

-6.4

Over 2.5

1.70

2.01

-9.1

Under 2.5

2.19

1.99

4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Under 2.5 (3.9 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 May

Fulham

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 May

West Ham

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Wolves

A

4

0

W

O

N

18 Apr

Man United

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Newcastle

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Apr

Southampton

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Mar

Everton

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Mar

Arsenal

H

1

1

D

U

G


Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 8 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Tottenham

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 May

Brighton

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Apr

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Man City

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Apr

Sheffield United

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Mar

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Mar

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Burnley is -0.194 and for the Leeds is 0.4.
The home dynamic for the Burnley is -0.103 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leeds is -0.094.
The offensive ability for the Burnley is 1 and for the Leeds is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -0.091 and for the Leeds is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

28%

33%

23%

16%

Leeds

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.26 goals and Leeds to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.26 goals and Leeds to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.76

1

5.35

2-3

2.10

2

4.24

4+

3.88

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.76

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.37

2.77

2-3 goals

2.59

4.33

2.62

4+ goals

2.90

3.35

2.80

Ov 1.5

2.69

3.93

2.68

Un 1.5

2.92

3.37

2.77

Ov 2.5

2.37

6.47

2.36

Un 2.5

3.26

2.66

3.16

Ov 3.5

2.90

3.35

2.80

Un 3.5

2.70

3.93

2.67

Goal-Goal

3.11

2.76

3.15

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.45

5.29

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.55

6.11

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Southampton vs Fulham at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and Fulham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southampton

2.06

2.04

0.5

Draw

3.57

3.86

-2.1

Fulham

3.67

3.97

-2.1

Over 2.5

1.99

2.04

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.84

1.96

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance at home.
Southampton, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Crystal Palace

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 May

Liverpool

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Apr

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Tottenham

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Apr

West Brom

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Burnley

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Mar

Brighton

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Mar

Man City

A

2

5

L

O

G


Fulham in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance as a guest.
Fulham, as a guest, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 May

Burnley

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Apr

Arsenal

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Apr

Wolves

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Aston Villa

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Mar

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Mar

Man City

H

0

3

L

O

N

07 Mar

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Southampton is -0.089 and for the Fulham is -0.816.
The home dynamic for the Southampton is -0.196 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is -0.079.
The offensive ability for the Southampton is 0.207 and for the Fulham is -0.089.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Southampton is -1 and for the Fulham is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Fulham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southampton

20%

32%

27%

20%

Fulham

35%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.48 goals and Fulham to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.47 goals and Fulham to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.85

1

5.32

2-3

2.00

2

4.02

4+

4.15

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.85

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

3.61

3.51

2-3 goals

1.88

4.30

4.26

4+ goals

2.19

3.44

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.97

3.98

4.16

Un 1.5

2.28

3.61

3.51

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.01

3.48

Un 2.5

2.42

2.71

4.59

Ov 3.5

2.19

3.44

3.95

Un 3.5

2.00

4.04

3.97

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.76

4.28

No Goal

1.72

6.75

3.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.69

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.75

3.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Brighton vs West Ham at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brighton

2.93

2.55

5.1

Draw

3.45

3.76

-2.4

West Ham

2.45

2.92

-6.6

Over 2.5

2.04

2.02

0.5

Under 2.5

1.81

1.98

-4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brighton, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brighton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance at home.
Brighton, at home, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Wolves

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 May

Leeds

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Apr

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Everton

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Mar

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G


West Ham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 May

Burnley

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Leicester

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Arsenal

H

3

3

D

O

G

14 Mar

Man United

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Brighton is -0.258 and for the West Ham is 0.016.
The home dynamic for the Brighton is -0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Ham is 0.177.
The offensive ability for the Brighton is -0.145 and for the West Ham is 0.259.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brighton is 0.209 and for the West Ham is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brighton

27%

32%

26%

16%

West Ham

29%

34%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.13 goals and West Ham to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.31 goals and West Ham to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.80

1

5.41

2-3

2.07

2

4.15

4+

3.95

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.80

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-