# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Newcastle vs Man City at 14 May 2021**** Burnley vs Leeds at 15 May 2021**** Southampton vs Fulham at 15 May 2021**** Brighton vs West Ham at 15 May 2021**** West Brom vs Liverpool at 16 May 2021**** Tottenham vs Wolves at 16 May 2021**** Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa at 16 May 2021**** Everton vs Sheffield United at 16 May 2021**

###
Newcastle vs Man City at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **14 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
11.28 |
4.78 |
12.1 |

Draw |
6.00 |
4.29 |
6.6 |

Man City |
1.28 |
1.79 |
-22.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.86 |
-11.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.16 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.1 %, 6.6 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 39.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 May |
Leicester |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
West Ham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Mar |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 13 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 42 points, 82.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Crystal Palace |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Aston Villa |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Mar |
Southampton |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Mar |
Man United |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Newcastle** is **0.435** and for the **Man City** is **0.384.**

The home dynamic for the **Newcastle** is **-0.217** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Man City** is **0.887.**

The offensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **0.559** and for the **Man City** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **-1** and for the **Man City** is **0.09.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
41% |
27% |
24% |
8% |

Man City |
16% |
30% |
27% |
27% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **0.51 ** goals and **Man City** to score **2.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.08** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **2.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.66 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **0.68** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.35 |

1 |
6.06 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.75 |

3 |
3.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.35 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.35 |
3.54 |
1.89 |

2-3 goals |
4.11 |
6.19 |
1.68 |

4+ goals |
6.21 |
3.10 |
1.93 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.65 |
4.60 |
1.76 |

Un 1.5 |
5.35 |
3.54 |
1.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.22 |
6.23 |
1.66 |

Un 2.5 |
5.70 |
3.16 |
1.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.21 |
3.10 |
1.93 |

Un 3.5 |
4.43 |
5.01 |
1.74 |

Goal-Goal |
4.30 |
2.96 |
2.33 |

No Goal |
5.42 |
7.75 |
1.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.59 |
4.80 |
1.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.70 |
7.75 |
1.62 |

####
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###
Burnley vs Leeds at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **Leeds** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
3.08 |
2.75 |
3.9 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.76 |
-1.3 |

Leeds |
2.30 |
2.70 |
-6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.01 |
-9.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
1.99 |
4.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Under 2.5 (3.9 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 May |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 May |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Apr |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Everton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Mar |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** as a guest**.

Leeds,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, no draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 May |
Tottenham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 May |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Apr |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
Man City |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Burnley** is **-0.194** and for the **Leeds** is **0.4.**

The home dynamic for the **Burnley** is **-0.103** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leeds** is **-0.094.**

The offensive ability for the **Burnley** is **1** and for the **Leeds** is **0.281.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Burnley** is **-0.091** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **Leeds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
28% |
33% |
23% |
16% |

Leeds |
28% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.81** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.37 |
2.77 |

2-3 goals |
2.59 |
4.33 |
2.62 |

4+ goals |
2.90 |
3.35 |
2.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.93 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.37 |
2.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.47 |
2.36 |

Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.66 |
3.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.90 |
3.35 |
2.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.93 |
2.67 |

Goal-Goal |
3.11 |
2.76 |
3.15 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.11 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.29 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
6.11 |
2.47 |

####
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###
Southampton vs Fulham at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southampton** and **Fulham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southampton |
2.06 |
2.04 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.57 |
3.86 |
-2.1 |

Fulham |
3.67 |
3.97 |
-2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.04 |
-1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.96 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southampton (0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** at home**.

Southampton,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 47.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Crystal Palace |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Apr |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Mar |
Man City |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** as a guest**.

Fulham,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 May |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Apr |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Aston Villa |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Mar |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Mar |
Man City |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

07 Mar |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Southampton** is **-0.089** and for the **Fulham** is **-0.816.**

The home dynamic for the **Southampton** is **-0.196** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fulham** is **-0.079.**

The offensive ability for the **Southampton** is **0.207** and for the **Fulham** is **-0.089.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Southampton** is **-1** and for the **Fulham** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southampton** and the red line for guest team, **Fulham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southampton |
20% |
32% |
27% |
20% |

Fulham |
35% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Southampton ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Fulham** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Southampton ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.61 |
3.51 |

2-3 goals |
1.88 |
4.30 |
4.26 |

4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.44 |
3.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
3.98 |
4.16 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.61 |
3.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.01 |
3.48 |

Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.71 |
4.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.44 |
3.95 |

Un 3.5 |
2.00 |
4.04 |
3.97 |

Goal-Goal |
2.47 |
2.76 |
4.28 |

No Goal |
1.72 |
6.75 |
3.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.69 |
3.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.75 |
3.54 |

####
Go to Top

###
Brighton vs West Ham at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brighton** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brighton |
2.93 |
2.55 |
5.1 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.76 |
-2.4 |

West Ham |
2.45 |
2.92 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.02 |
0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.98 |
-4.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brighton, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** at home**.

Brighton,** at home**, had 3 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Leeds |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Everton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Mar |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 52.9% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 May |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Arsenal |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Mar |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Brighton** is **-0.258** and for the **West Ham** is **0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **Brighton** is **-0.31** and the dynamic as a guest for the **West Ham** is **0.177.**

The offensive ability for the **Brighton** is **-0.145** and for the **West Ham** is **0.259.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brighton** is **0.209** and for the **West Ham** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brighton** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brighton |
27% |
32% |
26% |
16% |

West Ham |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.13 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.31 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |