# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Pacos Ferreira vs Gil Vicente at 14 May 2021**** Farense vs Tondela at 15 May 2021**** Rio Ave vs Porto at 15 May 2021**** Boavista vs Portimonense at 15 May 2021**** Benfica vs Sp Lisbon at 15 May 2021**** Sp Braga vs Moreirense at 15 May 2021**** Maritimo vs Guimaraes at 16 May 2021**** Belenenses vs Santa Clara at 16 May 2021**** Famalicao vs Nacional at 16 May 2021**

###
Pacos Ferreira vs Gil Vicente at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pacos Ferreira** and **Gil Vicente** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **14 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.40 |
2.24 |
3.0 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.66 |
-4.6 |

Gil Vicente |
3.07 |
3.55 |
-4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.24 |
2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.81 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (3 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** at home**.

Pacos Ferreira,** at home**, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 68.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 May |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Apr |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Rio Ave |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Farense |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** as a guest**.

Gil Vicente,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 May |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 May |
Maritimo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 May |
Farense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Apr |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Benfica |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Moreirense |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.032** and for the **Gil Vicente** is **0.096.**

The home dynamic for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.466** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.162.**

The offensive ability for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.322** and for the **Gil Vicente** is **0.356.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.573** and for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.167.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pacos Ferreira** and the red line for guest team, **Gil Vicente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pacos Ferreira |
26% |
34% |
23% |
18% |

Gil Vicente |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Gil Vicente** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Gil Vicente** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.99 |
0-1 |
3.28 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.28 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.35 |
3.28 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.91 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.23 |
3.63 |
3.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.82 |
3.68 |

Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.35 |
3.28 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.56 |
3.10 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.59 |
4.01 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.23 |
3.63 |
3.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.67 |
3.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.63 |
4.06 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
5.73 |
3.18 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.03 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.73 |
3.12 |

####
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###
Farense vs Tondela at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Farense** and **Tondela** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Farense |
1.68 |
2.56 |
-20.5 |

Draw |
3.82 |
3.62 |
1.4 |

Tondela |
4.98 |
3.00 |
13.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.28 |
-6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.78 |
1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Tondela, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 13.3 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** at home**.

Farense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 May |
Porto |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

06 May |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Apr |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** as a guest**.

Tondela,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 11 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 May |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Apr |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Apr |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Moreirense |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Porto |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Apr |
Guimaraes |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Farense** is **-0.113** and for the **Tondela** is **-0.016.**

The home dynamic for the **Farense** is **-0.445** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tondela** is **-0.547.**

The offensive ability for the **Farense** is **0.269** and for the **Tondela** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Farense** is **-0.209** and for the **Tondela** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Farense** and the red line for guest team, **Tondela. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Farense |
29% |
35% |
21% |
15% |

Tondela |
34% |
32% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Farense ** to win by **0.92** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.21 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.18 |
3.32 |

2-3 goals |
2.53 |
4.17 |
2.74 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.33 |
3.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.88 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.18 |
3.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.98 |
2.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
2.64 |
3.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.33 |
3.23 |

Un 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.72 |
2.94 |

Goal-Goal |
3.14 |
2.65 |
3.29 |

No Goal |
2.19 |
5.42 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.65 |
2.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.42 |
2.83 |

####
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###
Rio Ave vs Porto at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rio Ave** and **Porto** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rio Ave |
6.28 |
3.92 |
9.6 |

Draw |
4.18 |
3.76 |
2.7 |

Porto |
1.51 |
2.09 |
-18.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.05 |
-5.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.95 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rio Ave, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 2.7 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** at home**.

Rio Ave,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 May |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Boavista |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Gil Vicente |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** as a guest**.

Porto,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 72.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 May |
Farense |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 May |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Apr |
Famalicao |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Apr |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Apr |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Tondela |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Santa Clara |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.492** and for the **Porto** is **0.784.**

The home dynamic for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.146** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Porto** is **0.804.**

The offensive ability for the **Rio Ave** is **-1** and for the **Porto** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.245** and for the **Porto** is **-0.339.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rio Ave** and the red line for guest team, **Porto. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rio Ave |
35% |
37% |
18% |
10% |

Porto |
20% |
37% |
19% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **0.69 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **1.24** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.63 |
3.89 |
2.14 |

2-3 goals |
3.91 |
3.51 |
2.18 |

4+ goals |
4.26 |
4.19 |
1.90 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.02 |
3.71 |
2.07 |

Un 1.5 |
3.63 |
3.89 |
2.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.37 |
8.27 |
1.72 |

Un 2.5 |
4.61 |
2.47 |
2.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |
4.19 |
1.90 |

Un 3.5 |
3.80 |
3.64 |
2.16 |

Goal-Goal |
4.21 |
2.66 |
2.58 |

No Goal |
3.62 |
6.83 |
1.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.10 |
6.53 |
1.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
6.83 |
1.93 |

####
Go to Top

###
Boavista vs Portimonense at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Boavista** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Boavista |
2.46 |
2.35 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.64 |
-3.6 |

Portimonense |
2.87 |
3.33 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.23 |
-2.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.81 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Boavista (1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 8.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Boavista** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boavista** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance** at home**.

Boavista,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

11 May |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 May |
Tondela |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 May |
Santa Clara |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Apr |
Rio Ave |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 May |
Moreirense |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 May |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Rio Ave |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Apr |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Guimaraes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Apr |
Nacional |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Boavista** is **-0.315** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.344.**

The home dynamic for the **Boavista** is **-0.338** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portimonense** is **-0.419.**

The offensive ability for the **Boavista** is **0.145** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.281.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Boavista** is **-0.664** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.288.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Boavista** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Boavista |
26% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

Portimonense |
34% |
37% |
18% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.30 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.30 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |