2021 05 14 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pacos Ferreira vs Gil Vicente at 14 May 2021
Farense vs Tondela at 15 May 2021
Rio Ave vs Porto at 15 May 2021
Boavista vs Portimonense at 15 May 2021
Benfica vs Sp Lisbon at 15 May 2021
Sp Braga vs Moreirense at 15 May 2021
Maritimo vs Guimaraes at 16 May 2021
Belenenses vs Santa Clara at 16 May 2021
Famalicao vs Nacional at 16 May 2021


Pacos Ferreira vs Gil Vicente at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 14 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

2.40

2.24

3.0

Draw

3.13

3.66

-4.6

Gil Vicente

3.07

3.55

-4.4

Over 2.5

2.37

2.24

2.4

Under 2.5

1.59

1.81

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (3 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 10 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 33 points, 68.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Maritimo

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 May

Sp Braga

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Apr

Belenenses

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Rio Ave

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Farense

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Apr

Boavista

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Apr

Benfica

H

0

5

L

O

N

04 Apr

Famalicao

A

0

2

L

U

N


Gil Vicente in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance as a guest.
Gil Vicente, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Sp Braga

H

1

1

D

U

G

05 May

Maritimo

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Farense

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Apr

Belenenses

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Apr

Famalicao

H

0

3

L

O

N

17 Apr

Benfica

A

2

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Moreirense

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Rio Ave

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.032 and for the Gil Vicente is 0.096.
The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.466 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gil Vicente is -0.162.
The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.322 and for the Gil Vicente is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.573 and for the Gil Vicente is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Gil Vicente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

26%

34%

23%

18%

Gil Vicente

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.17 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.33 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.28

1

4.67

2-3

2.08

2

4.02

4+

4.67

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.28

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.35

3.28

2-3 goals

2.11

3.91

3.70

4+ goals

2.23

3.63

3.63

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.82

3.68

Un 1.5

2.52

3.35

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.84

7.56

3.10

Un 2.5

2.74

2.59

4.01

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.63

3.63

Un 3.5

2.25

3.67

3.52

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.63

4.06

No Goal

1.96

5.73

3.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

6.03

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.73

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Farense vs Tondela at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Farense and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Farense

1.68

2.56

-20.5

Draw

3.82

3.62

1.4

Tondela

4.98

3.00

13.3

Over 2.5

1.98

2.28

-6.6

Under 2.5

1.83

1.78

1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Tondela, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 13.3 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Farense in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance at home.
Farense, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 May

Porto

A

1

5

L

O

G

06 May

Guimaraes

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Gil Vicente

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Portimonense

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Apr

Sp Lisbon

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

Sp Braga

H

1

2

L

O

G


Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 11 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Belenenses

H

1

3

L

O

G

07 May

Boavista

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Apr

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Apr

Famalicao

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Apr

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Moreirense

A

3

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Porto

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Guimaraes

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Farense is -0.113 and for the Tondela is -0.016.
The home dynamic for the Farense is -0.445 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tondela is -0.547.
The offensive ability for the Farense is 0.269 and for the Tondela is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Farense is -0.209 and for the Tondela is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Farense and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Farense

29%

35%

21%

15%

Tondela

34%

32%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Farense to score 1.69 goals and Tondela to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Farense to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Farense to score 1.22 goals and Tondela to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.21

1

4.67

2-3

2.08

2

4.00

4+

4.76

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.21

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.27

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.18

3.32

2-3 goals

2.53

4.17

2.74

4+ goals

2.56

3.33

3.23

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.88

2.88

Un 1.5

2.60

3.18

3.32

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.98

2.50

Un 2.5

2.94

2.64

3.56

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.33

3.23

Un 3.5

2.55

3.72

2.94

Goal-Goal

3.14

2.65

3.29

No Goal

2.19

5.42

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.37

5.65

2.49

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

5.42

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rio Ave vs Porto at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

6.28

3.92

9.6

Draw

4.18

3.76

2.7

Porto

1.51

2.09

-18.4

Over 2.5

1.83

2.05

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.97

1.95

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rio Ave, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.6 %, 2.7 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Santa Clara

A

0

1

L

U

N

05 May

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Portimonense

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Maritimo

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Sp Braga

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Boavista

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Apr

Gil Vicente

H

0

2

L

U

N


Porto in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 72.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 May

Farense

H

5

1

W

O

G

06 May

Benfica

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Apr

Famalicao

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Apr

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Apr

Guimaraes

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Nacional

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Tondela

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Santa Clara

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Rio Ave is -0.492 and for the Porto is 0.784.
The home dynamic for the Rio Ave is -0.146 and the dynamic as a guest for the Porto is 0.804.
The offensive ability for the Rio Ave is -1 and for the Porto is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rio Ave is -0.245 and for the Porto is -0.339.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

35%

37%

18%

10%

Porto

20%

37%

19%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 0.69 goals and Porto to score 1.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.24 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.04 goals and Porto to score 1.47 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.68

1

4.95

2-3

2.08

2

4.17

4+

4.05

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.63

3.89

2.14

2-3 goals

3.91

3.51

2.18

4+ goals

4.26

4.19

1.90

Ov 1.5

4.02

3.71

2.07

Un 1.5

3.63

3.89

2.14

Ov 2.5

3.37

8.27

1.72

Un 2.5

4.61

2.47

2.64

Ov 3.5

4.26

4.19

1.90

Un 3.5

3.80

3.64

2.16

Goal-Goal

4.21

2.66

2.58

No Goal

3.62

6.83

1.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.10

6.53

1.91

NG+Un 2.5

3.38

6.83

1.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Boavista vs Portimonense at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

2.46

2.35

1.9

Draw

3.22

3.64

-3.6

Portimonense

2.87

3.33

-4.8

Over 2.5

2.12

2.23

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.72

1.81

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Boavista (1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 8.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

11 May

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 May

Tondela

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 May

Santa Clara

A

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Maritimo

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Apr

Pacos Ferreira

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Apr

Rio Ave

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Apr

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N


Portimonense in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 May

Moreirense

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 May

Belenenses

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 May

Rio Ave

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Apr

Benfica

H

1

5

L

O

G

18 Apr

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Apr

Guimaraes

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Apr

Nacional

A

5

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Boavista is -0.315 and for the Portimonense is -0.344.
The home dynamic for the Boavista is -0.338 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portimonense is -0.419.
The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.145 and for the Portimonense is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -0.664 and for the Portimonense is -0.288.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

26%

34%

22%

17%

Portimonense

34%

37%

18%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.23 goals and Portimonense to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.3 goals and Portimonense to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.30

1

4.69

2-3

2.09

2

4.03

4+

4.57

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.30

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals