2021 05 14 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Espanol vs Cartagena at 14 May 2021
Castellon vs Ponferradina at 15 May 2021
Lugo vs Mirandes at 15 May 2021
Las Palmas vs Zaragoza at 15 May 2021
Almeria vs Albacete at 15 May 2021
Mallorca vs Alcorcon at 16 May 2021
Leganes vs Logrones at 16 May 2021
Sabadell vs Tenerife at 16 May 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Vallecano at 16 May 2021
Oviedo vs Malaga at 17 May 2021
Girona vs Sp Gijon at 17 May 2021


Espanol vs Cartagena at 14 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 14 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.84

1.76

2.5

Draw

3.29

4.07

-5.8

Cartagena

4.61

5.38

-3.1

Over 2.5

2.21

2.16

1.0

Under 2.5

1.67

1.86

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Espanol, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Espanol in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 15 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 47 points, 82.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 18 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Zaragoza

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 May

Malaga

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Las Palmas

H

4

0

W

O

N

19 Apr

Almeria

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Leganes

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Albacete

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Apr

Fuenlabrada

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Mar

Castellon

A

3

1

W

O

G


Cartagena in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance as a guest.
Cartagena, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 26.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Castellon

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 May

Fuenlabrada

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Logrones

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Tenerife

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Apr

Alcorcon

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 Apr

Zaragoza

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Espanol is 0.79 and for the Cartagena is 0.424.
The home dynamic for the Espanol is 0.516 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cartagena is -0.555.
The offensive ability for the Espanol is 0.533 and for the Cartagena is 0.681.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is 0.7 and for the Cartagena is 0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

17%

33%

26%

23%

Cartagena

44%

35%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.48 goals and Cartagena to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.56 goals and Cartagena to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.55

1

4.85

2-3

1.96

2

3.91

4+

4.83

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.55

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.93

3.71

4.70

2-3 goals

1.66

4.39

5.92

4+ goals

1.80

3.91

5.31

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.24

5.73

Un 1.5

1.93

3.71

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.49

8.68

4.65

Un 2.5

2.07

2.80

6.26

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.91

5.31

Un 3.5

1.75

4.12

5.42

Goal-Goal

2.25

2.74

5.26

No Goal

1.48

7.04

5.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

6.55

3.94

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

7.04

4.91


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Castellon vs Ponferradina at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

2.13

2.25

-2.5

Draw

3.10

3.58

-4.3

Ponferradina

3.77

3.62

1.1

Over 2.5

2.54

2.35

3.2

Under 2.5

1.50

1.74

-9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 49.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 14 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Cartagena

A

0

1

L

U

N

02 May

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Apr

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Mallorca

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Apr

Alcorcon

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Apr

Oviedo

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Mar

Albacete

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Mar

Espanol

H

1

3

L

O

G


Ponferradina in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 35.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Albacete

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 May

Las Palmas

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Lugo

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Apr

Leganes

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Fuenlabrada

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Girona

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Mar

Logrones

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Mar

Oviedo

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Castellon is 0.032 and for the Ponferradina is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Castellon is -0.068 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is -0.192.
The offensive ability for the Castellon is 0.093 and for the Ponferradina is -0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Castellon is 0.182 and for the Ponferradina is -0.253.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

25%

35%

25%

15%

Ponferradina

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.22 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and the home team Castellon to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.3 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Castellon to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.25

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.24

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.42

3.31

2-3 goals

2.11

3.87

3.72

4+ goals

2.30

3.18

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.65

3.79

Un 1.5

2.46

3.42

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.05

3.16

Un 2.5

2.67

2.63

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.18

3.98

Un 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.53

4.20

No Goal

1.94

5.77

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.83

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.77

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Lugo vs Mirandes at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lugo and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lugo

2.35

2.40

-0.9

Draw

3.02

3.51

-4.6

Mirandes

3.19

3.34

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.49

2.44

0.8

Under 2.5

1.53

1.69

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lugo in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance at home.
Lugo, at home, had 6 wins, 8 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 45.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 15 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 May

Sp Gijon

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Apr

Zaragoza

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Apr

Ponferradina

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

Alcorcon

H

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Mallorca

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Apr

Malaga

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Apr

Las Palmas

A

1

6

L

O

G

28 Mar

Sabadell

H

0

1

L

U

N


Mirandes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance as a guest.
Mirandes, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 43.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 May

Fuenlabrada

H

2

1

W

O

G

01 May

Mallorca

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Almeria

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Tenerife

H

0

0

D

U

N

18 Apr

Albacete

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Apr

Vallecano

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Apr

Sp Gijon

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Lugo is -0.798 and for the Mirandes is 0.08.
The home dynamic for the Lugo is 0.196 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mirandes is -0.2.
The offensive ability for the Lugo is -0.559 and for the Mirandes is 0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lugo is -1 and for the Mirandes is -0.313.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lugo

27%

35%

24%

13%

Mirandes

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.15 goals and Mirandes to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.23 goals and Mirandes to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.12

1

4.44

2-3

2.02

2

3.72

4+

5.46

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.12

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.59

3.34

3.18

2-3 goals

2.26

3.82

3.37

4+ goals

2.54

3.10

3.52

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.59

3.41

Un 1.5

2.59

3.34

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.99

6.95

2.83

Un 2.5

2.82

2.61

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.54

3.10

3.52

Un 3.5

2.38

3.62

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.49

3.89

No Goal

2.08

5.51

2.96

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

5.78

2.82

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

5.51

2.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Las Palmas vs Zaragoza at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Las Palmas

2.71

1.96

14.1

Draw

2.81

3.82

-9.4

Zaragoza

3.02

4.39

-10.3

Over 2.5

2.26

2.18

1.6

Under 2.5

1.65

1.85

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Las Palmas, Over 2.5 (14.1 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Las Palmas in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance at home.
Las Palmas, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 61.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Alcorcon

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 May

Ponferradina

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Espanol

A

0

4

L

O

N

17 Apr

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Oviedo

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Mallorca

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Apr

Lugo

H

6

1

W

O

G

28 Mar

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G


Zaragoza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 19.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 May

Espanol

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Apr

Lugo

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Apr

Sp Gijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Apr

Girona

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Apr

Fuenlabrada

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Apr

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Mar

Logrones

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Las Palmas is 0.105 and for the Zaragoza is 0.216.
The home dynamic for the Las Palmas is 0.153 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zaragoza is -0.683.
The offensive ability for the Las Palmas is -0.233 and for the Zaragoza is -0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Las Palmas is 0.3 and for the Zaragoza is 0.176.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Las Palmas and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Las Palmas

20%

34%

27%

19%

Zaragoza

38%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.16 goals and Zaragoza to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.46 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.60

1

4.93

2-3

1.96

2

3.80

4+

4.72

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.60

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-