2021 05 14 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Genoa vs Atalanta at 15 May 2021
Roma vs Lazio at 15 May 2021
Spezia vs Torino at 15 May 2021
Juventus vs Inter at 15 May 2021
Milan vs Cagliari at 16 May 2021
Benevento vs Crotone at 16 May 2021
Fiorentina vs Napoli at 16 May 2021
Parma vs Sassuolo at 16 May 2021
Udinese vs Sampdoria at 16 May 2021
Verona vs Bologna at 17 May 2021


Genoa vs Atalanta at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Genoa and Atalanta for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Genoa

11.85

3.09

23.9

Draw

6.67

3.72

11.9

Atalanta

1.24

2.46

-40.0

Over 2.5

1.37

2.07

-24.7

Under 2.5

3.02

1.93

18.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa, Draw, Under 2.5 (23.9 %, 11.9 %, 18.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Genoa in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance at home.
Genoa, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Bologna

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 May

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 May

Lazio

A

3

4

L

O

G

24 Apr

Spezia

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Benevento

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Milan

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G


Atalanta in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance as a guest.
Atalanta, as a guest, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Benevento

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 May

Parma

A

5

2

W

O

G

02 May

Sassuolo

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Bologna

H

5

0

W

O

N

22 Apr

Roma

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Juventus

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Apr

Fiorentina

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Udinese

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Genoa is -0.056 and for the Atalanta is 0.816.
The home dynamic for the Genoa is -0.06 and the dynamic as a guest for the Atalanta is 0.555.
The offensive ability for the Genoa is 1 and for the Atalanta is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Genoa is -0.118 and for the Atalanta is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Genoa and the red line for guest team, Atalanta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Genoa

35%

25%

30%

10%

Atalanta

32%

21%

29%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Genoa to score 0.53 goals and Atalanta to score 2.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.48 goals in the game and the guest team Atalanta to win by 2.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.15 goals and Atalanta to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

3.73

1

6.41

2-3

2.09

2

4.02

4+

3.97

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.73

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.27

2.39

3.62

2-3 goals

2.49

8.87

2.06

4+ goals

4.94

2.45

2.57

Ov 1.5

3.01

4.66

2.21

Un 1.5

3.27

2.39

3.62

Ov 2.5

3.28

4.68

2.08

Un 2.5

2.90

3.11

2.99

Ov 3.5

4.94

2.45

2.57

Un 3.5

2.73

4.50

2.43

Goal-Goal

3.87

2.81

2.59

No Goal

2.64

4.98

2.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.39

3.76

2.28

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

4.98

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Roma vs Lazio at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Roma and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Roma

3.07

2.13

14.4

Draw

3.52

3.73

-1.6

Lazio

2.33

3.82

-16.7

Over 2.5

1.58

1.95

-12.0

Under 2.5

2.37

2.05

6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Roma, Under 2.5 (14.4 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Roma in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance at home.
Roma, at home, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 May

Crotone

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 May

Sampdoria

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Cagliari

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Apr

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Torino

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Sassuolo

A

2

2

D

O

G


Lazio in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Parma

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 May

Fiorentina

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 May

Genoa

H

4

3

W

O

G

26 Apr

Milan

H

3

0

W

O

N

22 Apr

Napoli

A

2

5

L

O

G

18 Apr

Benevento

H

5

3

W

O

G

11 Apr

Verona

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Spezia

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Roma is -0.435 and for the Lazio is 0.44.
The home dynamic for the Roma is 0.445 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lazio is 0.208.
The offensive ability for the Roma is 0.586 and for the Lazio is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Roma is -0.545 and for the Lazio is -0.167.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Roma and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Roma

26%

15%

42%

17%

Lazio

38%

25%

27%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Roma to score 1.34 goals and Lazio to score 1.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Roma to score 1.5 goals and Lazio to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Roma to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

4.55

1

8.33

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

3.62

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.55

5

11.36

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

3.62

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.00

2.20

3.38

2-3 goals

1.53

13.92

3.66

4+ goals

3.17

2.11

4.76

Ov 1.5

1.87

4.65

3.98

Un 1.5

4.00

2.20

3.38

Ov 2.5

2.00

3.89

4.11

Un 2.5

2.27

3.58

3.58

Ov 3.5

3.17

2.11

4.76

Un 3.5

1.88

5.30

3.57

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.73

4.70

No Goal

1.95

5.41

3.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

3.21

4.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

5.41

3.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Torino at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

3.26

2.79

5.2

Draw

3.04

3.53

-4.6

Torino

2.47

2.79

-4.6

Over 2.5

1.82

2.18

-9.1

Under 2.5

2.02

1.85

4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 May

Napoli

H

1

4

L

O

G

01 May

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Bologna

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G


Torino in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Milan

H

0

7

L

O

N

09 May

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 May

Parma

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Apr

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Bologna

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Roma

H

3

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Udinese

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Juventus

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Spezia is -0.435 and for the Torino is 0.024.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.089 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torino is -0.192.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is 0.621 and for the Torino is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -1 and for the Torino is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

34%

24%

32%

11%

Torino

38%

16%

32%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.2 goals and Torino to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.2 goals and Torino to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.69

0-1

3.65

1

6.94

2-3

2.07

2

3.73

4+

4.10

3

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.65

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.45

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

2.11

5.17

2-3 goals

2.25

12.68

2.10

4+ goals

4.69

2.10

3.21

Ov 1.5

2.73

4.71

2.37

Un 1.5

3.01

2.11

5.17

Ov 2.5

3.18

3.95

2.31

Un 2.5

2.54

3.23

3.37

Ov 3.5

4.69

2.10

3.21

Un 3.5

2.48

4.50

2.67

Goal-Goal

4.00

2.65

2.68

No Goal

2.32

4.55

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.63

3.19

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

4.55

3.13


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Juventus vs Inter at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 15 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

2.18

2.64

-8.0

Draw

3.74

3.79

-0.4

Inter

3.21

2.80

4.6

Over 2.5

1.69

2.00

-9.2

Under 2.5

2.22

2.00

5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Inter, Under 2.5 (4.6 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 75.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Sassuolo

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 May

Milan

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 May

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G

25 Apr

Fiorentina

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Parma

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Apr

Atalanta

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Genoa

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Apr

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G


Inter in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 11 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 39 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 May

Roma

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 May

Sampdoria

H

5

1

W

O

G

01 May

Crotone

A

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Spezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Apr

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Juventus is 0.306 and for the Inter is 0.856.
The home dynamic for the Juventus is 0.58 and the dynamic as a guest for the Inter is 0.713.
The offensive ability for the Juventus is 0.233 and for the Inter is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Juventus is -1 and for the Inter is -0.227.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

30%

26%

30%

14%

Inter

32%

26%

26%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.62 goals and Inter to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.29 goals and Inter to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.53

0-1

3.89

1

6.17

2-3

2.07

2

4.13

4+

3.83

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.89

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the bes