# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Genoa vs Atalanta at 15 May 2021**** Roma vs Lazio at 15 May 2021**** Spezia vs Torino at 15 May 2021**** Juventus vs Inter at 15 May 2021**** Milan vs Cagliari at 16 May 2021**** Benevento vs Crotone at 16 May 2021**** Fiorentina vs Napoli at 16 May 2021**** Parma vs Sassuolo at 16 May 2021**** Udinese vs Sampdoria at 16 May 2021**** Verona vs Bologna at 17 May 2021**

###
Genoa vs Atalanta at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Genoa** and **Atalanta** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Genoa |
11.85 |
3.09 |
23.9 |

Draw |
6.67 |
3.72 |
11.9 |

Atalanta |
1.24 |
2.46 |
-40.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.37 |
2.07 |
-24.7 |

Under 2.5 |
3.02 |
1.93 |
18.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Genoa, Draw, Under 2.5 (23.9 %, 11.9 %, 18.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** at home**.

Genoa,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 May |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 May |
Lazio |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Milan |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** as a guest**.

Atalanta,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 May |
Parma |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Apr |
Bologna |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

22 Apr |
Roma |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Fiorentina |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Udinese |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Genoa** is **-0.056** and for the **Atalanta** is **0.816.**

The home dynamic for the **Genoa** is **-0.06** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Atalanta** is **0.555.**

The offensive ability for the **Genoa** is **1** and for the **Atalanta** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Genoa** is **-0.118** and for the **Atalanta** is **0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Genoa** and the red line for guest team, **Atalanta. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Genoa |
35% |
25% |
30% |
10% |

Atalanta |
32% |
21% |
29% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Genoa** to score **0.53 ** goals and **Atalanta** to score **2.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.48** goals in the game and the guest team **Atalanta ** to win by **2.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Genoa** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Atalanta** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.93 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
2.27 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.27 |
2.39 |
3.62 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
8.87 |
2.06 |

4+ goals |
4.94 |
2.45 |
2.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.01 |
4.66 |
2.21 |

Un 1.5 |
3.27 |
2.39 |
3.62 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.28 |
4.68 |
2.08 |

Un 2.5 |
2.90 |
3.11 |
2.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.94 |
2.45 |
2.57 |

Un 3.5 |
2.73 |
4.50 |
2.43 |

Goal-Goal |
3.87 |
2.81 |
2.59 |

No Goal |
2.64 |
4.98 |
2.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.39 |
3.76 |
2.28 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
4.98 |
2.68 |

####
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###
Roma vs Lazio at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Roma** and **Lazio** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Roma |
3.07 |
2.13 |
14.4 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.73 |
-1.6 |

Lazio |
2.33 |
3.82 |
-16.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.95 |
-12.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.37 |
2.05 |
6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Roma, Under 2.5 (14.4 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Roma** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Roma** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance** at home**.

Roma,** at home**, had 12 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 40 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Inter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 May |
Crotone |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 May |
Sampdoria |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Torino |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Lazio** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lazio** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance** as a guest**.

Lazio,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 51.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lazio scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Parma |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 May |
Fiorentina |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 May |
Genoa |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Apr |
Milan |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

22 Apr |
Napoli |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Benevento |
H |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Verona |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Roma** is **-0.435** and for the **Lazio** is **0.44.**

The home dynamic for the **Roma** is **0.445** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lazio** is **0.208.**

The offensive ability for the **Roma** is **0.586** and for the **Lazio** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Roma** is **-0.545** and for the **Lazio** is **-0.167.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Roma** and the red line for guest team, **Lazio. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Roma |
26% |
15% |
42% |
17% |

Lazio |
38% |
25% |
27% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Roma** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Lazio** to score **1.64 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Roma** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Lazio** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and the home team **Roma ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
4.55 |

1 |
8.33 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
3.62 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.55 |

5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.62 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.00 |
2.20 |
3.38 |

2-3 goals |
1.53 |
13.92 |
3.66 |

4+ goals |
3.17 |
2.11 |
4.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.87 |
4.65 |
3.98 |

Un 1.5 |
4.00 |
2.20 |
3.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
3.89 |
4.11 |

Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.17 |
2.11 |
4.76 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
5.30 |
3.57 |

Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.73 |
4.70 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
5.41 |
3.32 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
3.21 |
4.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.41 |
3.32 |

####
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###
Spezia vs Torino at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Spezia** and **Torino** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Spezia |
3.26 |
2.79 |
5.2 |

Draw |
3.04 |
3.53 |
-4.6 |

Torino |
2.47 |
2.79 |
-4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.18 |
-9.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
1.85 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Spezia, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** at home**.

Spezia,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 May |
Napoli |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Genoa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Inter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** as a guest**.

Torino,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 35.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Milan |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |

09 May |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 May |
Parma |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Apr |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Roma |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Juventus |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Spezia** is **-0.435** and for the **Torino** is **0.024.**

The home dynamic for the **Spezia** is **-0.089** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Torino** is **-0.192.**

The offensive ability for the **Spezia** is **0.621** and for the **Torino** is **0.281.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Spezia** is **-1** and for the **Torino** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Spezia** and the red line for guest team, **Torino. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Spezia |
34% |
24% |
32% |
11% |

Torino |
38% |
16% |
32% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Torino** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Torino** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.69 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
6.94 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
4.67 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
2.11 |
5.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.25 |
12.68 |
2.10 |

4+ goals |
4.69 |
2.10 |
3.21 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.73 |
4.71 |
2.37 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
2.11 |
5.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.18 |
3.95 |
2.31 |

Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
3.23 |
3.37 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |
2.10 |
3.21 |

Un 3.5 |
2.48 |
4.50 |
2.67 |

Goal-Goal |
4.00 |
2.65 |
2.68 |

No Goal |
2.32 |
4.55 |
2.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.63 |
3.19 |
2.43 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
4.55 |
3.13 |

####
Go to Top

###
Juventus vs Inter at 15 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Juventus** and **Inter** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **15 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Juventus |
2.18 |
2.64 |
-8.0 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.79 |
-0.4 |

Inter |
3.21 |
2.80 |
4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.00 |
-9.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.00 |
5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Inter, Under 2.5 (4.6 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** at home**.

Juventus,** at home**, had 13 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 41 points, 75.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Sassuolo |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 May |
Milan |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 May |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Fiorentina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Parma |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Genoa |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Apr |
Napoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Inter** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Inter** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance** as a guest**.

Inter,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 39 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 May |
Roma |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
Sampdoria |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 May |
Crotone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Verona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Spezia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Apr |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Apr |
Sassuolo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Juventus** is **0.306** and for the **Inter** is **0.856.**

The home dynamic for the **Juventus** is **0.58** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Inter** is **0.713.**

The offensive ability for the **Juventus** is **0.233** and for the **Inter** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Juventus** is **-1** and for the **Inter** is **-0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Juventus** and the red line for guest team, **Inter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Juventus |
30% |
26% |
30% |
14% |

Inter |
32% |
26% |
26% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Inter** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.83** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Inter** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
6.17 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the bes