# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Dortmund vs Leverkusen at 22 May 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg at 22 May 2021**** FC Koln vs Schalke 04 at 22 May 2021**** Hoffenheim vs Hertha at 22 May 2021**** Stuttgart vs Bielefeld at 22 May 2021**** Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig at 22 May 2021**** Werder Bremen vs M’gladbach at 22 May 2021**** Wolfsburg vs Mainz at 22 May 2021**** Bayern Munich vs Augsburg at 22 May 2021**

###
Dortmund vs Leverkusen at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dortmund** and **Leverkusen** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dortmund |
1.55 |
1.97 |
-13.8 |

Draw |
4.71 |
4.02 |
3.6 |

Leverkusen |
5.47 |
4.12 |
6.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.28 |
1.82 |
-23.2 |

Under 2.5 |
3.64 |
2.22 |
17.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 6 %, 17.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** at home**.

Dortmund,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 May |
Mainz |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Werder Bremen |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Stuttgart |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
FC Koln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** as a guest**.

Leverkusen,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 May |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Dortmund** is **1** and for the **Leverkusen** is **0.282.**

The home dynamic for the **Dortmund** is **0.313** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leverkusen** is **0.082.**

The offensive ability for the **Dortmund** is **1** and for the **Leverkusen** is **-0.421.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Dortmund** is **0.04** and for the **Leverkusen** is **0.316.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dortmund** and the red line for guest team, **Leverkusen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dortmund |
18% |
31% |
25% |
26% |

Leverkusen |
32% |
37% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dortmund** to score **2.75 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.81** goals in the game and the home team **Dortmund ** to win by **1.69** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dortmund** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Leverkusen** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Dortmund ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.52 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.42 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.52 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |

NoG |
2.26 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.23 |
3.88 |
3.40 |

2-3 goals |
1.87 |
4.31 |
4.27 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
3.70 |
4.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.06 |
4.38 |

Un 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.88 |
3.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.96 |
3.82 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.65 |
4.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.70 |
4.56 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
4.16 |
3.96 |

Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.91 |
4.50 |

No Goal |
1.66 |
7.75 |
3.71 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
5.63 |
3.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.75 |
3.40 |

####
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###
Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ein Frankfurt** and **Freiburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ein Frankfurt |
2.05 |
1.81 |
6.5 |

Draw |
4.19 |
4.26 |
-0.4 |

Freiburg |
3.08 |
4.72 |
-11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.28 |
1.74 |
-20.7 |

Under 2.5 |
3.65 |
2.36 |
15.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ein Frankfurt, Under 2.5 (6.5 %, 15 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** at home**.

Ein Frankfurt,** at home**, had 9 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 May |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Dortmund |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
Union Berlin |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Freiburg** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Freiburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Freiburg,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Freiburg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Bayern Munich |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 May |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 May |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Apr |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
M’gladbach |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Augsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **-0.336** and for the **Freiburg** is **0.127.**

The home dynamic for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.831** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Freiburg** is **-0.313.**

The offensive ability for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.704** and for the **Freiburg** is **0.093.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **-0.503** and for the **Freiburg** is **-0.585.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ein Frankfurt** and the red line for guest team, **Freiburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ein Frankfurt |
16% |
30% |
19% |
35% |

Freiburg |
35% |
35% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **2.2 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.81** goals in the game and the home team **Ein Frankfurt ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Freiburg** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **Ein Frankfurt ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.50 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
3.21 |

3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.24 |
Un 1.5 |
4.50 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.45 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.09 |
3.83 |
3.83 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
4.41 |
4.49 |

4+ goals |
1.63 |
4.39 |
6.24 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.40 |
5.06 |

Un 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.83 |
3.83 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
8.11 |
4.68 |

Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.59 |
4.78 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.63 |
4.39 |
6.24 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.20 |
4.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.10 |
3.05 |
5.09 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
7.95 |
4.35 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
6.11 |
4.09 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
7.95 |
3.58 |

####
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###
FC Koln vs Schalke 04 at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Koln** and **Schalke 04** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Koln |
1.38 |
1.86 |
-18.7 |

Draw |
5.59 |
4.15 |
6.2 |

Schalke 04 |
7.34 |
4.57 |
8.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
1.81 |
-20.5 |

Under 2.5 |
3.30 |
2.24 |
14.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Schalke 04, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 8.3 %, 14.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** at home**.

FC Koln,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 22.9% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Hertha |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 May |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Leverkusen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Mar |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Schalke 04** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Schalke 04** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance** as a guest**.

Schalke 04,** as a guest**, had no wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

12 May |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

08 May |
Hoffenheim |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Apr |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
Augsburg |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Mar |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **FC Koln** is **-0.239** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.265.**

The home dynamic for the **FC Koln** is **-0.821** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.821.**

The offensive ability for the **FC Koln** is **0.311** and for the **Schalke 04** is **0.093.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **FC Koln** is **-0.387** and for the **Schalke 04** is **-0.617.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Koln** and the red line for guest team, **Schalke 04. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Koln |
16% |
30% |
25% |
29% |

Schalke 04 |
35% |
36% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **2.85 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.64** goals in the game and the home team **FC Koln ** to win by **2.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.66 ** goals and **Schalke 04** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the home team **FC Koln ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.55 |

1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
3.44 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.49 |
Un 1.5 |
4.55 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.24 |

Gg |
1.83 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.12 |
3.86 |
3.73 |

2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.57 |
4.70 |

4+ goals |
1.85 |
3.78 |
5.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.24 |
4.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.86 |
3.73 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
7.19 |
4.26 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.72 |
4.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.85 |
3.78 |
5.11 |

Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.32 |
4.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.20 |
2.96 |
4.82 |

No Goal |
1.56 |
7.98 |
4.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.69 |
3.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.98 |
3.77 |

####
Go to Top

###
Hoffenheim vs Hertha at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hoffenheim** and **Hertha** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hoffenheim |
1.94 |
2.16 |
-5.3 |

Draw |
3.95 |
3.92 |
0.2 |

Hertha |
3.56 |
3.53 |
0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.39 |
1.86 |
-18.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.16 |
12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Hertha, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 0.2 %, 12.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 11.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** at home**.

Hoffenheim,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 May |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Apr |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Apr |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Mar |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** as a guest**.

Hertha,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 May |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 May |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 May |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 May |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Apr |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Mar |
Leverkusen |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Hoffenheim** is **0.287** and for the **Hertha** is **0.486.**

The home dynamic for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.204** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Hertha** is **-0.343.**

The offensive ability for the **Hoffenheim** is **0.43** and for the **Hertha** is **-0.093.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Hoffenheim** is **-0.11** and for the **Hertha** is **0.482.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hoffenheim** and the red line for guest team, **Hertha. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hoffenheim |
20% |
32% |
24% |
23% |

Hertha |
32% |
34% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **2.09 ** goals and **Hertha** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.42** goals in the game and the home team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **0.76** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hoffenheim** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Hertha** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Hoffenheim ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.42 |
4+ |
3.48 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |