2021 05 22 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dortmund vs Leverkusen at 22 May 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg at 22 May 2021
FC Koln vs Schalke 04 at 22 May 2021
Hoffenheim vs Hertha at 22 May 2021
Stuttgart vs Bielefeld at 22 May 2021
Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig at 22 May 2021
Werder Bremen vs M’gladbach at 22 May 2021
Wolfsburg vs Mainz at 22 May 2021
Bayern Munich vs Augsburg at 22 May 2021


Dortmund vs Leverkusen at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dortmund and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dortmund

1.55

1.97

-13.8

Draw

4.71

4.02

3.6

Leverkusen

5.47

4.12

6.0

Over 2.5

1.28

1.82

-23.2

Under 2.5

3.64

2.22

17.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leverkusen, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 6 %, 17.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dortmund in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance at home.
Dortmund, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Mainz

A

3

1

W

O

G

08 May

RB Leipzig

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Union Berlin

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Werder Bremen

H

4

1

W

O

G

10 Apr

Stuttgart

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

FC Koln

A

2

2

D

O

G


Leverkusen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 47.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Union Berlin

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 May

Werder Bremen

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Apr

Ein Frankfurt

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Apr

Bayern Munich

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Apr

FC Koln

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Apr

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Schalke 04

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Mar

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Dortmund is 1 and for the Leverkusen is 0.282.
The home dynamic for the Dortmund is 0.313 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leverkusen is 0.082.
The offensive ability for the Dortmund is 1 and for the Leverkusen is -0.421.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dortmund is 0.04 and for the Leverkusen is 0.316.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dortmund

18%

31%

25%

26%

Leverkusen

32%

37%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 2.75 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.81 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 1.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.6 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.54

0-1

4.52

1

6.10

2-3

2.05

2

4.37

4+

3.42

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.52

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.82

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.22

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.42

NoG

2.26

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.88

3.40

2-3 goals

1.87

4.31

4.27

4+ goals

1.96

3.70

4.56

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.06

4.38

Un 1.5

2.23

3.88

3.40

Ov 2.5

1.68

6.96

3.82

Un 2.5

2.49

2.65

4.55

Ov 3.5

1.96

3.70

4.56

Un 3.5

1.97

4.16

3.96

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.91

4.50

No Goal

1.66

7.75

3.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

5.63

3.59

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

7.75

3.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Freiburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

2.05

1.81

6.5

Draw

4.19

4.26

-0.4

Freiburg

3.08

4.72

-11.3

Over 2.5

1.28

1.74

-20.7

Under 2.5

3.65

2.36

15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ein Frankfurt, Under 2.5 (6.5 %, 15 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had 9 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 34 points, 70.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Schalke 04

A

3

4

L

O

G

09 May

Mainz

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Leverkusen

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Apr

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

M’gladbach

A

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Wolfsburg

H

4

3

W

O

G

03 Apr

Dortmund

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Mar

Union Berlin

H

5

2

W

O

G


Freiburg in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance as a guest.
Freiburg, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Bayern Munich

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 May

FC Koln

A

4

1

W

O

G

06 May

Hertha

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Apr

Hoffenheim

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Schalke 04

H

4

0

W

O

N

09 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Apr

M’gladbach

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.336 and for the Freiburg is 0.127.
The home dynamic for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.831 and the dynamic as a guest for the Freiburg is -0.313.
The offensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.704 and for the Freiburg is 0.093.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.503 and for the Freiburg is -0.585.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Freiburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

16%

30%

19%

35%

Freiburg

35%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 2.2 goals and Freiburg to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.81 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.73 goals and Freiburg to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.50

1

6.10

2-3

2.14

2

4.93

4+

3.21

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.24

Un 1.5

4.50

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.74

6+

27.78

Un 2.5

2.35

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.21

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.45

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.09

3.83

3.83

2-3 goals

1.82

4.41

4.49

4+ goals

1.63

4.39

6.24

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.40

5.06

Un 1.5

2.09

3.83

3.83

Ov 2.5

1.51

8.11

4.68

Un 2.5

2.47

2.59

4.78

Ov 3.5

1.63

4.39

6.24

Un 3.5

1.90

4.20

4.25

Goal-Goal

2.10

3.05

5.09

No Goal

1.55

7.95

4.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

6.11

4.09

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

7.95

3.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Koln vs Schalke 04 at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Koln and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Koln

1.38

1.86

-18.7

Draw

5.59

4.15

6.2

Schalke 04

7.34

4.57

8.3

Over 2.5

1.32

1.81

-20.5

Under 2.5

3.30

2.24

14.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Schalke 04, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 8.3 %, 14.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance at home.
FC Koln, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 22.9% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Hertha

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 May

Freiburg

H

1

4

L

O

G

23 Apr

Augsburg

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Apr

RB Leipzig

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Leverkusen

A

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Mainz

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Wolfsburg

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Mar

Dortmund

H

2

2

D

O

G


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 12 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Ein Frankfurt

H

4

3

W

O

G

12 May

Hertha

H

1

2

L

O

G

08 May

Hoffenheim

A

2

4

L

O

G

20 Apr

Bielefeld

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Freiburg

A

0

4

L

O

N

11 Apr

Augsburg

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Leverkusen

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Mar

M’gladbach

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the FC Koln is -0.239 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.265.
The home dynamic for the FC Koln is -0.821 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.821.
The offensive ability for the FC Koln is 0.311 and for the Schalke 04 is 0.093.
Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Koln is -0.387 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.617.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Koln and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Koln

16%

30%

25%

29%

Schalke 04

35%

36%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 2.85 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.64 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 2.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.66 goals and Schalke 04 to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.54

0-1

4.55

1

6.13

2-3

2.04

2

4.42

4+

3.44

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.49

Un 1.5

4.55

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.24

Gg

1.83

Ov 3.5

3.44

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.12

3.86

3.73

2-3 goals

1.76

4.57

4.70

4+ goals

1.85

3.78

5.11

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.24

4.84

Un 1.5

2.12

3.86

3.73

Ov 2.5

1.60

7.19

4.26

Un 2.5

2.32

2.72

4.96

Ov 3.5

1.85

3.78

5.11

Un 3.5

1.86

4.32

4.35

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.96

4.82

No Goal

1.56

7.98

4.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.69

3.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.77

7.98

3.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hoffenheim vs Hertha at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hoffenheim

1.94

2.16

-5.3

Draw

3.95

3.92

0.2

Hertha

3.56

3.53

0.2

Over 2.5

1.39

1.86

-18.2

Under 2.5

2.93

2.16

12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Hertha, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 0.2 %, 12.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance at home.
Hoffenheim, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Bielefeld

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 May

Schalke 04

H

4

2

W

O

G

24 Apr

Freiburg

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

M’gladbach

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

RB Leipzig

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Leverkusen

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Apr

Augsburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Mar

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G


Hertha in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance as a guest.
Hertha, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

FC Koln

H

0

0

D

U

N

12 May

Schalke 04

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 May

Bielefeld

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 May

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 May

Mainz

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Apr

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Leverkusen

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Hoffenheim is 0.287 and for the Hertha is 0.486.
The home dynamic for the Hoffenheim is -0.204 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hertha is -0.343.
The offensive ability for the Hoffenheim is 0.43 and for the Hertha is -0.093.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.11 and for the Hertha is 0.482.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hoffenheim

20%

32%

24%

23%

Hertha

32%

34%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 2.09 goals and Hertha to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.42 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.51 goals and Hertha to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

4.24

1

5.85

2-3

2.10

2

4.42

4+

3.48

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.24

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5