# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Wrexham vs King’s Lynn at 22 May 2021**** Aldershot vs Bromley at 22 May 2021**** Altrincham vs Yeovil at 22 May 2021**** Chesterfield vs Dag and Red at 22 May 2021**** Eastleigh vs Boreham Wood at 22 May 2021**** Maidenhead vs Halifax at 22 May 2021**** Notts County vs Weymouth at 22 May 2021**** Stockport vs Woking at 22 May 2021**** Torquay vs Barnet at 22 May 2021**** Wealdstone vs Solihull at 22 May 2021**** Sutton vs Hartlepool at 23 May 2021**

###
Wrexham vs King’s Lynn at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wrexham** and **King’s Lynn** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wrexham |
1.27 |
1.82 |
-23.8 |

Draw |
5.59 |
4.20 |
5.9 |

King’s Lynn |
9.25 |
4.72 |
10.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.95 |
-12.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.05 |
6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (5.9 %, 10.4 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** at home**.

Wrexham,** at home**, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 57.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 May |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 May |
Boreham Wood |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
Yeovil |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 May |
Maidenhead |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 May |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Woking |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**King’s Lynn** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **King’s Lynn** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance** as a guest**.

King’s Lynn,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 15 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 18.3% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 May |
Chesterfield |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 May |
Boreham Wood |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Apr |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wrexham** is **0.247** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.82.**

The home dynamic for the **Wrexham** is **0.284** and the dynamic as a guest for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.493.**

The offensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **0.333** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.311.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **-0.04** and for the **King’s Lynn** is **-0.554.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wrexham** and the red line for guest team, **King’s Lynn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wrexham |
22% |
23% |
27% |
28% |

King’s Lynn |
39% |
37% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **2.44 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **0.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the home team **Wrexham ** to win by **1.89** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.6 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Wrexham ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.04 |
3.15 |

2-3 goals |
1.59 |
5.62 |
5.20 |

4+ goals |
1.68 |
3.82 |
7.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |
4.84 |
5.70 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.04 |
3.15 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
7.77 |
5.58 |

Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.83 |
4.05 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.68 |
3.82 |
7.00 |

Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
4.34 |
4.24 |

Goal-Goal |
1.92 |
3.12 |
6.29 |

No Goal |
1.74 |
6.13 |
3.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
5.92 |
5.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.13 |
3.33 |

####
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###
Aldershot vs Bromley at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aldershot** and **Bromley** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aldershot |
4.03 |
2.54 |
14.6 |

Draw |
3.65 |
3.70 |
-0.4 |

Bromley |
1.78 |
2.96 |
-22.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.02 |
-6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.00 |
1.98 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aldershot, Under 2.5 (14.6 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aldershot** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aldershot** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance** at home**.

Aldershot,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 45.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aldershot scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 May |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 May |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 May |
Yeovil |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 May |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Apr |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
King’s Lynn |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Apr |
Barnet |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bromley** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bromley** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance** as a guest**.

Bromley,** as a guest**, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Notts County |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 May |
Wealdstone |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 May |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 May |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Chesterfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Woking |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Aldershot** is **-0.514** and for the **Bromley** is **0.469.**

The home dynamic for the **Aldershot** is **-0.383** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bromley** is **0.299.**

The offensive ability for the **Aldershot** is **1** and for the **Bromley** is **0.486.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Aldershot** is **-0.04** and for the **Bromley** is **0.451.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aldershot** and the red line for guest team, **Bromley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aldershot |
25% |
35% |
23% |
17% |

Bromley |
29% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aldershot** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Bromley** to score **1.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the guest team **Bromley ** to win by **0.77** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aldershot** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bromley** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.98 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.63 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
4.01 |
2.86 |

4+ goals |
2.61 |
3.30 |
3.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.53 |
3.74 |
2.96 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.63 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.50 |
2.56 |

Un 2.5 |
3.02 |
2.61 |
3.50 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.30 |
3.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.87 |
2.90 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.70 |
3.36 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
6.52 |
2.60 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.43 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.52 |
2.65 |

####
Go to Top

###
Altrincham vs Yeovil at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Altrincham** and **Yeovil** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Altrincham |
2.56 |
2.23 |
5.8 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.83 |
-3.6 |

Yeovil |
2.74 |
3.45 |
-7.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.99 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.01 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Altrincham (5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Altrincham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Altrincham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance** at home**.

Altrincham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 May |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

01 May |
Notts County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Barnet |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Apr |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Mar |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Yeovil** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Yeovil** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance** as a guest**.

Yeovil,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 31.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 May |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 May |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 May |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

08 May |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 May |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 May |
Wealdstone |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Apr |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Altrincham** is **-1** and for the **Yeovil** is **-0.078.**

The home dynamic for the **Altrincham** is **-0.473** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Yeovil** is **-0.134.**

The offensive ability for the **Altrincham** is **0.059** and for the **Yeovil** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Altrincham** is **-1** and for the **Yeovil** is **-0.067.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Altrincham** and the red line for guest team, **Yeovil. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Altrincham |
24% |
30% |
25% |
21% |

Yeovil |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Altrincham** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Yeovil** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Altrincham** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Yeovil** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Altrincham ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.75 |
3.35 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.06 |
4.52 |
3.41 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.36 |
4.25 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.04 |
3.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.75 |
3.35 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.59 |
3.34 |

Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
2.70 |
3.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.36 |
4.25 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
4.03 |
3.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.46 |
2.81 |
4.19 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
6.22 |
2.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
5.37 |
3.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.22 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Chesterfield vs Dag and Red at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Chesterfield** and **Dag and Red** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Chesterfield |
2.07 |
2.25 |
-3.9 |

Draw |
3.90 |
3.80 |
0.7 |

Dag and Red |
3.09 |
3.41 |
-3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.98 |
0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.02 |
-6.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Over 2.5 (0.7 %, 0.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Chesterfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chesterfield** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance** at home**.

Chesterfield,** at home**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 May |
King’s Lynn |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
Woking |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 May |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 May |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Apr |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Apr |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Dag and Red** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dag and Red** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance** as a guest**.

Dag and Red,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Halifax |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

11 May |
Stockport |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 May |
Wealdstone |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 May |
Woking |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 May |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
King’s Lynn |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Solihull |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Apr |
Eastleigh |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Chesterfield** is **0.109** and for the **Dag and Red** is **1.**

The home dynamic for the **Chesterfield** is **0.104** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Dag and Red** is **0.119.**

The offensive ability for the **Chesterfield** is **0.281** and for the **Dag and Red** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Chesterfield** is **-0.387** and for the **Dag and Red** is **0.834.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Chesterfield** and the red line for guest team, **Dag and Red. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Chesterfield |
23% |
32% |
25% |
20% |

Dag and Red |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Chesterfield** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Dag and Red** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Chesterfield ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Chesterfield** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Dag and Red** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.