2021 05 22 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wrexham vs King’s Lynn at 22 May 2021
Aldershot vs Bromley at 22 May 2021
Altrincham vs Yeovil at 22 May 2021
Chesterfield vs Dag and Red at 22 May 2021
Eastleigh vs Boreham Wood at 22 May 2021
Maidenhead vs Halifax at 22 May 2021
Notts County vs Weymouth at 22 May 2021
Stockport vs Woking at 22 May 2021
Torquay vs Barnet at 22 May 2021
Wealdstone vs Solihull at 22 May 2021
Sutton vs Hartlepool at 23 May 2021


Wrexham vs King’s Lynn at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

1.27

1.82

-23.8

Draw

5.59

4.20

5.9

King’s Lynn

9.25

4.72

10.4

Over 2.5

1.56

1.95

-12.8

Under 2.5

2.34

2.05

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (5.9 %, 10.4 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 15 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 May

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 May

Boreham Wood

A

3

2

W

O

G

08 May

Yeovil

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 May

Maidenhead

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 May

Solihull

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Chesterfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Apr

Woking

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Apr

Halifax

A

4

0

W

O

N


King’s Lynn in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 15 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 18.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 18 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 May

Chesterfield

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 May

Boreham Wood

A

1

5

L

O

G

01 May

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Apr

Stockport

H

0

4

L

O

N

24 Apr

Dag and Red

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Apr

Aldershot

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Halifax

A

2

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.247 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.82.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.284 and the dynamic as a guest for the King’s Lynn is -0.493.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.333 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.04 and for the King’s Lynn is -0.554.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

22%

23%

27%

28%

King’s Lynn

39%

37%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 2.44 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 1.89 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.6 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.88

1

5.78

2-3

2.04

2

4.39

4+

3.97

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.02

Un 1.5

3.88

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.04

3.15

2-3 goals

1.59

5.62

5.20

4+ goals

1.68

3.82

7.00

Ov 1.5

1.62

4.84

5.70

Un 1.5

2.84

3.04

3.15

Ov 2.5

1.45

7.77

5.58

Un 2.5

2.51

2.83

4.05

Ov 3.5

1.68

3.82

7.00

Un 3.5

1.87

4.34

4.24

Goal-Goal

1.92

3.12

6.29

No Goal

1.74

6.13

3.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

5.92

5.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.13

3.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aldershot vs Bromley at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

4.03

2.54

14.6

Draw

3.65

3.70

-0.4

Bromley

1.78

2.96

-22.4

Over 2.5

1.78

2.02

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.00

1.98

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot, Under 2.5 (14.6 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aldershot in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance at home.
Aldershot, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 45.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aldershot was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 May

Eastleigh

H

1

3

L

O

G

15 May

Hartlepool

H

1

3

L

O

G

11 May

Yeovil

H

2

0

W

U

N

01 May

Sutton

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Apr

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Apr

King’s Lynn

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Apr

Barnet

A

1

3

L

O

G


Bromley in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 36 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Notts County

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 May

Wealdstone

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 May

Torquay

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 May

Hartlepool

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Chesterfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Apr

Halifax

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Apr

Woking

A

4

3

W

O

G


The form score for the Aldershot is -0.514 and for the Bromley is 0.469.
The home dynamic for the Aldershot is -0.383 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is 0.299.
The offensive ability for the Aldershot is 1 and for the Bromley is 0.486.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aldershot is -0.04 and for the Bromley is 0.451.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

25%

35%

23%

17%

Bromley

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 0.95 goals and Bromley to score 1.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Bromley to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.32 goals and Bromley to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.88

1

5.35

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

3.98

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.63

2.97

2-3 goals

2.49

4.01

2.86

4+ goals

2.61

3.30

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.74

2.96

Un 1.5

2.58

3.63

2.97

Ov 2.5

2.20

6.50

2.56

Un 2.5

3.02

2.61

3.50

Ov 3.5

2.61

3.30

3.18

Un 3.5

2.52

3.87

2.90

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.70

3.36

No Goal

2.16

6.52

2.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.43

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

6.52

2.65


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Altrincham vs Yeovil at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Altrincham and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Altrincham

2.56

2.23

5.8

Draw

3.37

3.83

-3.6

Yeovil

2.74

3.45

-7.5

Over 2.5

1.91

1.99

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.94

2.01

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Altrincham in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance at home.
Altrincham, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 May

Solihull

A

0

4

L

O

N

01 May

Notts County

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Barnet

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Sutton

H

0

4

L

O

N

10 Apr

Halifax

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Mar

Maidenhead

A

1

0

W

U

N


Yeovil in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 31.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 May

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 May

King’s Lynn

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 May

Aldershot

A

0

2

L

U

N

08 May

Wrexham

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 May

Halifax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 May

Wealdstone

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Apr

Solihull

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Apr

Solihull

A

1

5

L

O

G


The form score for the Altrincham is -1 and for the Yeovil is -0.078.
The home dynamic for the Altrincham is -0.473 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.134.
The offensive ability for the Altrincham is 0.059 and for the Yeovil is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Altrincham is -1 and for the Yeovil is -0.067.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Altrincham and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Altrincham

24%

30%

25%

21%

Yeovil

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.31 goals and Yeovil to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Altrincham to score 1.42 goals and Yeovil to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Altrincham to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.83

1

5.46

2-3

2.07

2

4.20

4+

3.92

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.75

3.35

2.97

2-3 goals

2.06

4.52

3.41

4+ goals

2.14

3.36

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.04

3.66

Un 1.5

2.75

3.35

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.59

3.34

Un 2.5

2.87

2.70

3.56

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.36

4.25

Un 3.5

2.26

4.03

3.24

Goal-Goal

2.46

2.81

4.19

No Goal

2.02

6.22

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.37

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.22

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Chesterfield vs Dag and Red at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Dag and Red for Conference (England), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

2.07

2.25

-3.9

Draw

3.90

3.80

0.7

Dag and Red

3.09

3.41

-3.0

Over 2.5

2.01

1.98

0.8

Under 2.5

1.79

2.02

-6.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Over 2.5 (0.7 %, 0.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Wealdstone

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 May

King’s Lynn

H

4

1

W

O

G

08 May

Woking

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 May

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Apr

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Apr

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G


Dag and Red in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance as a guest.
Dag and Red, as a guest, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Halifax

H

3

0

W

O

N

11 May

Stockport

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 May

Wealdstone

A

5

0

W

O

N

03 May

Woking

H

3

1

W

O

G

01 May

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

King’s Lynn

A

3

0

W

O

N

17 Apr

Solihull

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Apr

Eastleigh

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Chesterfield is 0.109 and for the Dag and Red is 1.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is 0.104 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dag and Red is 0.119.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.281 and for the Dag and Red is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is -0.387 and for the Dag and Red is 0.834.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Dag and Red.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

23%

32%

25%

20%

Dag and Red

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.39 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.42 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.92

1

5.46

2-3

2.05

2

4.13

4+

3.91

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.