2021 05 22 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Promitheas vs GS Lavrio at 22 May 2021
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens at 23 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Promitheas vs GS Lavrio at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.38

3.72

GS Lavrio

3.15

1.37

Promitheas HC

-5.5

6.50

GS Lavrio HC

+5.5

-6.50

Point Line

160.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

A

Lavrio B.C.

W

86

79

19

7

W 3

87

74

May 17

H

Peristeri

W

86

58

18

7

W 2

90

63

May 14

A

Peristeri

W

90

79

17

7

W 1

94

85

May 12

H

Peristeri

L

66

83

16

7

L 1

69

90

Apr 28

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

90

85

16

6

W 1

88

89

Apr 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

61

83

15

6

L 1

66

70

Apr 14

H

AEK Athens

W

80

78

15

5

W 6

83

72

Apr 11

H

Messolonghi

W

84

68

14

5

W 5

79

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

H

Promitheas Patras

L

79

86

19

6

L 1

80

93

May 13

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

88

84

19

5

W 4

88

83

May 11

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

87

68

18

5

W 3

87

67

Apr 28

H

Larisa

W

81

75

17

5

W 2

77

78

Apr 14

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

105

77

16

5

W 1

102

80

Apr 10

A

Panathinaikos

L

69

105

15

5

L 1

75

89

Apr 3

A

AEK Athens

W

97

94

15

4

W 7

100

87

Mar 20

A

Messolonghi

W

79

75

14

4

W 6

75

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 80 points and the GS Lavrio 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

GS Lavrio

FG%

0.52

0.55

ASS

17.40

18.40

DRB

22.30

22.40

AST-TO

1.43

1.45

TRB

27.60

30.50

FTM

14.50

15.40

BL

3.20

2.80

FTA

20.30

21.80

PF-Fewer

18.40

22.00

ST

6.30

7.40

TO-Fewer

12.20

12.70

Ftper

0.71

0.71

ORBper

0.24

0.36

ORB

5.30

8.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and AEK Athens for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

1.19

1.48

AEK Athens

5

3.10

Panathinaikos HC

-10.5

-5.50

AEK Athens HC

+10.5

5.50

Point Line

166.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

H

AEK Athens

W

78

72

23

2

W 13

81

67

May 14

A

Ionikos Nikaias

W

90

61

22

2

W 12

86

61

May 12

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

102

64

21

2

W 11

97

64

Apr 28

A

AEK Athens

W

104

95

20

2

W 10

108

88

Apr 24

A

Promitheas Patras

W

83

61

19

2

W 9

84

66

Apr 20

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

100

66

18

2

W 8

97

69

Apr 18

A

P.A.O.K.

W

74

68

17

2

W 7

73

66

Apr 10

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

105

69

16

2

W 6

106

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

A

Panathinaikos

L

72

78

16

10

L 1

78

66

May 16

H

P.A.O.K.

W

87

81

16

9

W 1

86

79

May 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

73

81

15

9

L 1

72

79

May 11

H

P.A.O.K.

W

102

89

15

8

W 1

100

87

Apr 28

H

Panathinaikos

L

95

104

14

8

L 4

103

88

Apr 14

A

Promitheas Patras

L

78

80

14

7

L 3

79

87

Apr 10

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

72

79

14

6

L 2

72

78

Apr 3

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

94

97

14

5

L 1

95

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by AEK Athens.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by AEK Athens and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by AEK Athens in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 82 points and the AEK Athens 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

AEK Athens

FG%

0.61

0.54

ASS

20.60

17.30

DRB

25.60

22.50

AST-TO

1.53

1.37

TRB

35.00

32.30

FTM

14.10

15.50

BL

3.00

2.90

FTA

18.70

21.10

PF-Fewer

20.50

23.10

ST

7.50

6.70

TO-Fewer

13.50

12.60

Ftper

0.76

0.73

ORBper

0.37

0.44

ORB

9.40

9.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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