2021 05 22 Israeli Super League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Holon at 22 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Holon at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Holon for Israeli Super League, which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.17

1.75

Hapoel Holon

4.85

2.34

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

-11.5

-3.00

Hapoel Holon HC

+11.5

3.00

Point Line

163.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

A

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

W

67

65

22

5

W 3

72

67

May 9

H

Hapoel Eilat

W

95

72

21

5

W 2

96

68

May 4

H

Hapoel Haifa

W

85

76

20

5

W 1

82

76

Apr 28

A

Hapoel Be’er Sheva

L

79

93

19

5

L 1

81

93

Apr 24

A

Maccabi Haifa

W

82

78

19

4

W 1

76

82

Apr 19

A

Hapoel Gilboa Galil

L

78

85

18

4

L 1

84

88

Apr 12

A

Hapoel Jerusalem

W

100

76

18

3

W 5

98

74

Mar 21

A

Hapoel Haifa

W

104

67

17

3

W 4

101

67

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hapoel Holon are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

H

Hapoel Jerusalem

W

103

81

17

8

W 1

101

79

May 1

A

Hapoel Tel Aviv

L

98

104

16

8

L 1

98

106

Apr 25

H

Bnei Herzliya

W

90

85

16

7

W 3

88

85

Apr 22

H

Maccabi Rishon LeZion

W

99

94

15

7

W 2

98

91

Apr 19

H

Hapoel Jerusalem

W

103

94

14

7

W 1

101

92

Apr 16

A

Ironi Nes Ziona

L

76

84

13

7

L 1

78

83

Apr 12

H

Hapoel Eilat

W

80

73

13

6

W 5

80

69

Apr 4

A

Ironi Nahariya

W

84

67

12

6

W 4

74

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hapoel Holon.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hapoel Holon and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv (in the first graph) and by Hapoel Holon in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Maccabi Tel Aviv will expected to score 85 points and the Hapoel Holon 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Holon

FG%

0.57

0.58

ASS

20.20

18.30

DRB

27.00

20.80

AST-TO

1.68

1.50

TRB

35.90

28.30

FTM

15.90

16.60

BL

3.30

2.10

FTA

20.40

21.30

PF-Fewer

19.40

22.30

ST

7.30

7.80

TO-Fewer

12.00

12.20

Ftper

0.78

0.78

ORBper

0.33

0.36

ORB

8.90

7.50


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