2021 05 22 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Olimpia Milano vs Reyer Venezia at 22 May 2021
Brindisi vs Virtus Bologna at 23 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Olimpia Milano vs Reyer Venezia at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.14

1.37

Reyer Venezia

6.1

3.70

Olimpia Milano HC

-11.5

-6.50

Reyer Venezia HC

+11.5

6.50

Point Line

155.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 16

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

74

65

26

6

W 7

76

68

May 14

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

93

79

25

6

W 6

95

82

May 13

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

88

62

24

6

W 5

90

64

May 10

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

74

66

23

6

W 4

71

63

Apr 25

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

88

81

22

6

W 3

87

80

Apr 17

H

Virtus Bologna

W

94

84

21

6

W 2

98

78

Apr 14

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

85

73

20

6

W 1

82

65

Apr 11

A

Enel Brindisi

L

71

80

19

6

L 3

75

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

93

91

23

11

W 1

90

81

May 18

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

73

86

22

11

L 2

71

76

May 16

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

60

75

22

10

L 1

58

67

May 14

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

83

78

22

9

W 7

80

69

May 13

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

92

91

21

9

W 6

89

81

May 10

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

71

65

20

9

W 5

72

69

Apr 25

H

Universo Treviso

W

82

62

19

9

W 4

75

59

Apr 18

H

Fortitudo Bologna

W

92

76

18

9

W 3

92

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 81 points and the Reyer Venezia 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.56

0.55

ASS

17.90

17.70

DRB

24.60

24.80

AST-TO

1.67

1.31

TRB

32.30

32.60

FTM

15.60

11.60

BL

2.80

2.60

FTA

18.60

16.90

PF-Fewer

18.20

22.90

ST

7.20

7.10

TO-Fewer

10.70

13.50

Ftper

0.84

0.69

ORBper

0.31

0.31

ORB

7.70

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brindisi vs Virtus Bologna at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Virtus Bologna for Serie A, which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

1.72

1.89

Virtus Bologna

2.18

2.12

Brindisi HC

-2.5

-1.50

Virtus Bologna HC

+2.5

1.50

Point Line

168.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 17

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

79

77

24

8

W 4

80

78

May 14

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

86

54

23

8

W 3

88

55

May 13

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

85

64

22

8

W 2

86

65

May 10

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

108

84

21

8

W 1

103

83

May 7

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

73

83

20

8

L 3

75

86

May 5

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

90

97

20

7

L 2

87

86

Apr 18

H

Vanoli Cremona

L

67

78

20

6

L 1

64

74

Apr 14

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

86

62

20

5

W 8

85

62

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 17

A

Universo Treviso

W

105

100

22

9

W 3

96

96

May 14

H

Universo Treviso

W

88

83

21

9

W 2

81

79

May 13

H

Universo Treviso

W

91

72

20

9

W 1

83

69

May 10

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

L

83

91

19

9

L 1

85

95

Apr 21

H

Universo Treviso

W

97

68

19

8

W 1

89

65

Apr 17

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

84

94

18

8

L 1

92

88

Apr 11

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

67

18

7

W 4

82

68

Apr 3

A

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

W

108

77

17

7

W 3

104

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Virtus Bologna in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 81 points and the Virtus Bologna 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brindisi

Virtus Bologna

FG%

0.53

0.56

ASS

16.40

23.00

DRB

26.50

26.70

AST-TO

1.43

1.67

TRB

36.00

35.50

FTM

16.80

14.30

BL

2.50

2.80

FTA

22.30

19.20

PF-Fewer

17.90

20.20

ST

6.60

7.70

TO-Fewer

11.50

13.80

Ftper

0.76

0.74

ORBper

0.36

0.33

ORB

9.50

8.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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