2021 05 22 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Valladolid vs Ath Madrid at 22 May 2021
Celta vs Betis at 22 May 2021
Eibar vs Barcelona at 22 May 2021
Elche vs Ath Bilbao at 22 May 2021
Huesca vs Valencia at 22 May 2021
Osasuna vs Sociedad at 22 May 2021
Real Madrid vs Villarreal at 22 May 2021
Granada vs Getafe at 23 May 2021
Sevilla vs Alaves at 23 May 2021


Valladolid vs Ath Madrid at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Ath Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

10.25

2.60

28.7

Draw

5.73

3.73

9.4

Ath Madrid

1.33

2.88

-40.5

Over 2.5

1.71

1.86

-4.7

Under 2.5

2.23

2.17

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Draw, Under 2.5 (28.7 %, 9.4 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 13 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Sociedad

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 May

Villarreal

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 May

Valencia

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 May

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

28 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Apr

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G


Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Ath Madrid, as a guest, had 10 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 64.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Osasuna

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 May

Sociedad

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 May

Barcelona

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 May

Elche

A

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Apr

Huesca

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Apr

Eibar

H

5

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Valladolid is -0.7 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.69.
The home dynamic for the Valladolid is -0.711 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Madrid is 0.582.
The offensive ability for the Valladolid is 0.281 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.486.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -1 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.316.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Ath Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

25%

31%

26%

18%

Ath Madrid

20%

44%

22%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 0.51 goals and Ath Madrid to score 2.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the guest team Ath Madrid to win by 1.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.38 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.00

0-1

4.57

1

5.92

2-3

2.02

2

4.13

4+

3.52

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.57

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.67

Ov 3.5

3.52

NoG

2.51

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.53

4.38

2.05

2-3 goals

2.42

3.70

3.16

4+ goals

2.43

3.38

3.42

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.58

3.25

Un 1.5

3.53

4.38

2.05

Ov 2.5

2.01

6.40

2.89

Un 2.5

3.97

2.51

2.86

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.38

3.42

Un 3.5

2.68

3.89

2.71

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.75

4.00

No Goal

2.62

7.98

2.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.55

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.82

7.98

2.03


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Celta vs Betis at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Betis for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Celta

3.21

2.21

14.1

Draw

3.77

3.80

-0.2

Betis

2.13

3.51

-18.5

Over 2.5

1.60

2.00

-12.5

Under 2.5

2.35

2.00

7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Celta, Under 2.5 (14.1 %, 7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Celta in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance at home.
Celta, at home, had 9 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Barcelona

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 May

Getafe

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 May

Villarreal

A

4

2

W

O

G

30 Apr

Levante

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Osasuna

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

Sociedad

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Apr

Sevilla

H

3

4

L

O

G


Betis in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance as a guest.
Betis, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 42.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 May

Eibar

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 May

Granada

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 May

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Real Madrid

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Apr

Ath Bilbao

H

0

0

D

U

N

18 Apr

Valencia

H

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Celta is 0.7 and for the Betis is 0.51.
The home dynamic for the Celta is -0.333 and the dynamic as a guest for the Betis is 0.067.
The offensive ability for the Celta is 1 and for the Betis is 0.158.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Celta is 0.075 and for the Betis is 0.347.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Betis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Celta

23%

32%

25%

20%

Betis

32%

36%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.26 goals and Betis to score 1.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the guest team Betis to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.43 goals and Betis to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Celta to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.86

1

5.38

2-3

2.05

2

4.13

4+

3.92

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.55

3.12

2-3 goals

2.08

4.16

3.58

4+ goals

2.22

3.45

3.86

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.88

3.67

Un 1.5

2.51

3.55

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.85

6.76

3.21

Un 2.5

2.75

2.64

3.88

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.45

3.86

Un 3.5

2.21

3.93

3.41

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.75

4.05

No Goal

1.92

6.51

3.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.53

3.15

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.51

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Eibar vs Barcelona at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Eibar and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eibar

4.47

3.10

9.9

Draw

4.40

3.60

5.1

Barcelona

1.68

2.51

-19.7

Over 2.5

1.38

1.95

-21.2

Under 2.5

2.98

2.06

15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eibar, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.9 %, 5.1 %, 15 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eibar in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance at home.
Eibar, at home, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 24.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Valencia

A

1

4

L

O

G

13 May

Betis

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 May

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 May

Alaves

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Apr

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Apr

Granada

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Apr

Ath Madrid

A

0

5

L

O

N

10 Apr

Levante

H

0

1

L

U

N


Barcelona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had 12 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 38 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 16 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Celta

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 May

Levante

A

3

3

D

O

G

08 May

Ath Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 May

Valencia

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Apr

Granada

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

Getafe

H

5

2

W

O

G

10 Apr

Real Madrid

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Eibar is -0.255 and for the Barcelona is 0.045.
The home dynamic for the Eibar is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barcelona is 0.634.
The offensive ability for the Eibar is 0.704 and for the Barcelona is 0.486.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Eibar is 0.04 and for the Barcelona is -0.513.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eibar and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eibar

26%

39%

18%

16%

Barcelona

20%

39%

23%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.11 goals and Barcelona to score 2.34 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.45 goals in the game and the guest team Barcelona to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.25 goals and Barcelona to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.87

0-1

4.26

1

5.49

2-3

2.03

2

3.98

4+

3.66

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.71

Un 1.5

4.26

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.69

Ov 3.5

3.66

NoG

2.43

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

4.43

2.30

2-3 goals

3.47

3.20

2.50

4+ goals

2.68

3.90

2.70

Ov 1.5

3.14

3.42

2.57

Un 1.5

2.94

4.43

2.30

Ov 2.5

2.49

7.36

2.16

Un 2.5

4.15

2.35

3.00

Ov 3.5

2.68

3.90

2.70

Un 3.5

3.28

3.52

2.43

Goal-Goal

3.39

2.63

3.07

No Goal

2.74

7.75

1.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

6.23

2.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.84

7.75

2.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Elche vs Ath Bilbao at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

2.14

2.30

-3.3

Draw

3.59

3.79

-1.5

Ath Bilbao

3.45

3.32

1.1

Over 2.5

1.94

1.94

0.0

Under 2.5

1.92

2.06

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Bilbao (1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 10%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Elche in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Cadiz

A

3

1

W

O

G

11 May

Alaves

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 May

Sociedad

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 May

Ath Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Apr

Huesca

A

1

3

L

O

G


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Real Madrid

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 May

Huesca

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 May

Osasuna

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 May

Sevilla

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Apr

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

25 Apr

Ath Madrid

H

2

1

W

O

G

21 Apr

Betis

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Apr

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Elche is -0.279 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.004.
The home dynamic for the Elche is -0.323 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is -0.216.
The offensive ability for the Elche is -0.037 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.126.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Elche is -0.538 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.554.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

23%

31%

26%

20%

Ath Bilbao

28%

39%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 1.48 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.42 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.10

1

5.62

2-3

2.03

2

4.13

4+

3.79

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.10

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.79

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.