2021 05 22 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Reims vs Bordeaux at 23 May 2021
Strasbourg vs Lorient at 23 May 2021
Angers vs Lille at 23 May 2021
Rennes vs Nimes at 23 May 2021
Nantes vs Montpellier at 23 May 2021
Metz vs Marseille at 23 May 2021
Lyon vs Nice at 23 May 2021
Lens vs Monaco at 23 May 2021
Brest vs Paris SG at 23 May 2021
St Etienne vs Dijon at 23 May 2021


Reims vs Bordeaux at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

2.53

2.34

3.2

Draw

2.91

3.50

-5.8

Bordeaux

3.19

3.48

-2.6

Over 2.5

2.31

2.55

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.63

1.64

-0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 4 wins, 8 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N

09 May

Monaco

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 May

Nimes

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Apr

Marseille

H

1

3

L

O

G

18 Apr

Metz

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Apr

Nice

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Apr

Rennes

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Mar

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N


Bordeaux in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance as a guest.
Bordeaux, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 13 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Lens

H

3

0

W

O

N

08 May

Nantes

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 May

Rennes

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Lorient

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Apr

Monaco

H

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

St Etienne

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Strasbourg

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Mar

Montpellier

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Reims is -0.684 and for the Bordeaux is -0.184.
The home dynamic for the Reims is -0.174 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bordeaux is -0.127.
The offensive ability for the Reims is -0.333 and for the Bordeaux is 0.016.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reims is -0.11 and for the Bordeaux is 0.036.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

26%

38%

24%

12%

Bordeaux

38%

36%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 1.19 goals and Bordeaux to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.21 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

2.93

1

4.17

2-3

2.07

2

3.75

4+

5.71

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.40

Un 1.5

2.93

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.55

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.71

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.38

3.55

2-3 goals

2.18

3.53

3.87

4+ goals

2.87

3.65

2.65

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.56

3.45

Un 1.5

2.37

3.38

3.55

Ov 2.5

2.03

8.17

2.60

Un 2.5

2.60

2.55

4.47

Ov 3.5

2.87

3.65

2.65

Un 3.5

2.25

3.47

3.73

Goal-Goal

3.10

2.46

3.70

No Goal

1.95

5.40

3.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

6.62

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

5.40

3.46


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Strasbourg vs Lorient at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Strasbourg

2.75

1.99

13.9

Draw

2.13

3.91

-21.4

Lorient

4.65

4.15

2.6

Over 2.5

2.58

2.18

7.1

Under 2.5

1.51

1.85

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Strasbourg, Lorient, Over 2.5 (13.9 %, 2.6 %, 7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Strasbourg in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Nice

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 May

Montpellier

H

2

3

L

O

G

30 Apr

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Nantes

H

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Nimes

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Apr

Paris SG

H

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Bordeaux

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Mar

Lens

H

1

2

L

O

G


Lorient in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance as a guest.
Lorient, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 17 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Metz

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 May

Lyon

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 May

Angers

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Bordeaux

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Lens

A

1

4

L

O

G

04 Apr

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Strasbourg is -0.401 and for the Lorient is 0.167.
The home dynamic for the Strasbourg is -0.512 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lorient is -0.358.
The offensive ability for the Strasbourg is 1 and for the Lorient is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Strasbourg is -0.387 and for the Lorient is -0.513.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Strasbourg

24%

25%

35%

16%

Lorient

38%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.17 goals and Lorient to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.42 goals and Lorient to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.65

1

5.46

2-3

1.93

2

3.73

4+

4.83

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.65

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.82

3.01

3.19

2-3 goals

1.61

5.63

4.98

4+ goals

2.49

2.84

4.06

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.39

4.68

Un 1.5

2.82

3.01

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.69

6.26

4.01

Un 2.5

2.34

2.96

4.27

Ov 3.5

2.49

2.84

4.06

Un 3.5

1.89

4.33

4.17

Goal-Goal

2.23

2.85

5.00

No Goal

1.82

5.81

3.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.79

5.18

4.02

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

5.81

3.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Angers vs Lille at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Angers and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Angers

9.32

3.17

20.8

Draw

4.97

3.30

10.2

Lille

1.35

2.62

-35.9

Over 2.5

1.77

2.54

-17.1

Under 2.5

2.08

1.65

12.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Angers, Draw, Under 2.5 (20.8 %, 10.2 %, 12.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Angers in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance at home.
Angers, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

09 May

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 May

Lorient

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Monaco

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Rennes

H

0

3

L

O

N

11 Apr

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Mar

Brest

A

0

0

D

U

N


Lille in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 13 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 43 points, 79.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in 17 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

St Etienne

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 May

Lens

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 May

Nice

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Apr

Lyon

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Apr

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Apr

Metz

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Apr

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Mar

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Angers is -0.781 and for the Lille is 0.82.
The home dynamic for the Angers is -0.522 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lille is 0.843.
The offensive ability for the Angers is -0.237 and for the Lille is 0.421.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Angers is -0.422 and for the Lille is 0.938.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Angers and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Angers

36%

40%

14%

10%

Lille

36%

36%

2%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Angers to score 0.54 goals and Lille to score 2.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 1.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Angers to score 0.97 goals and Lille to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.63

0-1

2.46

1

3.64

2-3

2.58

2

5.00

4+

4.85

3

5.32

Ov 1.5

1.68

4

7.04

Un 1.5

2.46

5

26.32

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

4.85

NoG

1.68

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.82

3.10

3.10

2-3 goals

2.90

2.71

3.50

4+ goals

5.57

7.10

1.47

Ov 1.5

3.47

3.45

2.37

Un 1.5

2.82

3.10

3.10

Ov 2.5

3.23

13.59

1.62

Un 2.5

3.14

2.21

4.36

Ov 3.5

5.57

7.10

1.47

Un 3.5

2.86

2.90

3.28

Goal-Goal

4.72

2.36

2.74

No Goal

2.59

4.53

2.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.06

9.07

1.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

4.53

3.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rennes vs Nimes at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rennes and Nimes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rennes

1.32

2.03

-26.5

Draw

5.51

3.80

8.2

Nimes

8.97

4.10

13.2

Over 2.5

1.56

2.24

-19.5

Under 2.5

2.39

1.81

13.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nimes, Under 2.5 (8.2 %, 13.2 %, 13.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rennes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance at home.
Rennes, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 May

Paris SG

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 May

Bordeaux

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Apr

Dijon

H

5

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

Nantes

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Apr

Reims

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Mar

Metz

A

3

1

W

O

G


Nimes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance as a guest.
Nimes, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Lyon

H

2

5

L

O

G

09 May

Metz

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 May

Reims

H

2

2

D

O

G

25 Apr

Lens

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Apr

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Apr

Brest

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Apr

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N

21 Mar

Lille

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Rennes is -0.012 and for the Nimes is -0.086.
The home dynamic for the Rennes is -0.363 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nimes is -0.082.
The offensive ability for the Rennes is 0.652 and for the Nimes is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rennes is -0.11 and for the Nimes is -0.482.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rennes and the red line for guest team, Nimes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rennes

23%

30%

31%

16%

Nimes

38%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 2.43 goals and Nimes to score 0.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 1.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.4 goals and Nimes to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.47

1

5.05

2-3

1.96

2

3.76

4+

4.95

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.47

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.95

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-