2021 05 22 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Leicester vs Tottenham at 23 May 2021
Wolves vs Man United at 23 May 2021
West Ham vs Southampton at 23 May 2021
Sheffield United vs Burnley at 23 May 2021
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace at 23 May 2021
Leeds vs West Brom at 23 May 2021
Fulham vs Newcastle at 23 May 2021
Aston Villa vs Chelsea at 23 May 2021
Arsenal vs Brighton at 23 May 2021
Man City vs Everton at 23 May 2021


Leicester vs Tottenham at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Tottenham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leicester

2.05

2.57

-9.9

Draw

3.94

3.65

2.0

Tottenham

3.36

2.96

4.0

Over 2.5

1.60

2.07

-14.2

Under 2.5

2.39

1.94

9.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Tottenham, Under 2.5 (2 %, 4 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 May

Chelsea

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 May

Man United

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 May

Newcastle

H

2

4

L

O

G

30 Apr

Southampton

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Apr

Crystal Palace

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Apr

West Brom

H

3

0

W

O

N

11 Apr

West Ham

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Apr

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N


Tottenham in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tottenham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance as a guest.
Tottenham, as a guest, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 May

Aston Villa

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 May

Wolves

H

2

0

W

U

N

08 May

Leeds

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 May

Sheffield United

H

4

0

W

O

N

21 Apr

Southampton

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Apr

Everton

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Apr

Man United

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Apr

Newcastle

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Leicester is 0.012 and for the Tottenham is 0.241.
The home dynamic for the Leicester is -0.284 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tottenham is 0.172.
The offensive ability for the Leicester is 1 and for the Tottenham is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leicester is -0.572 and for the Tottenham is -0.036.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Tottenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leicester

26%

40%

12%

23%

Tottenham

30%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.76 goals and Tottenham to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Leicester to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.31 goals and Tottenham to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.46

1

4.74

2-3

2.20

2

4.41

4+

3.91

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.46

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.71

3.21

2-3 goals

3.18

3.27

2.63

4+ goals

2.05

4.57

3.41

Ov 1.5

2.65

3.65

2.87

Un 1.5

2.39

3.71

3.21

Ov 2.5

2.08

8.64

2.48

Un 2.5

3.31

2.38

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.05

4.57

3.41

Un 3.5

2.82

3.43

2.83

Goal-Goal

3.14

2.66

3.28

No Goal

2.15

6.18

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

6.77

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

6.18

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wolves vs Man United at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Man United for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolves

2.46

3.15

-8.9

Draw

3.66

3.91

-1.7

Man United

2.89

2.34

8.1

Over 2.5

1.75

1.92

-5.1

Under 2.5

2.17

2.08

2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Man United, Under 2.5 (8.1 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolves in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 May

Everton

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 May

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 May

Brighton

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 May

West Brom

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Burnley

H

0

4

L

O

N

17 Apr

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Apr

Fulham

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Apr

West Ham

H

2

3

L

O

G


Man United in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance as a guest.
Man United, as a guest, had 11 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 40 points, 74.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 May

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 May

Liverpool

H

2

4

L

O

G

11 May

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 May

Aston Villa

A

3

1

W

O

G

25 Apr

Leeds

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Apr

Burnley

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Tottenham

A

3

1

W

O

G

04 Apr

Brighton

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Wolves is -0.336 and for the Man United is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Wolves is -0.443 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man United is 0.716.
The offensive ability for the Wolves is -0.059 and for the Man United is 0.563.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolves is -0.572 and for the Man United is -0.585.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Man United.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolves

33%

27%

27%

13%

Man United

24%

32%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.46 goals and Man United to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.2 goals and Man United to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

4.02

1

5.85

2-3

2.08

2

4.33

4+

3.68

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.02

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.68

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.83

3.19

2.35

2-3 goals

2.65

5.45

2.27

4+ goals

3.83

2.99

2.47

Ov 1.5

2.98

4.20

2.34

Un 1.5

3.83

3.19

2.35

Ov 2.5

2.77

5.73

2.15

Un 2.5

3.72

2.89

2.59

Ov 3.5

3.83

2.99

2.47

Un 3.5

2.96

4.39

2.30

Goal-Goal

3.24

2.86

2.93

No Goal

3.08

6.27

1.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.68

4.66

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

3.04

6.27

2.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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West Ham vs Southampton at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between West Ham and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Ham

1.71

1.84

-4.1

Draw

3.99

3.92

0.4

Southampton

4.79

4.95

-0.7

Over 2.5

1.61

2.05

-13.3

Under 2.5

2.34

1.95

8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 8.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Ham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance at home.
West Ham, at home, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 May

West Brom

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 May

Brighton

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 May

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 May

Burnley

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Apr

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Leicester

H

3

2

W

O

G

05 Apr

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G


Southampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 May

Leeds

H

0

2

L

U

N

15 May

Fulham

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 May

Crystal Palace

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 May

Liverpool

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Apr

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Apr

Tottenham

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Apr

West Brom

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Apr

Burnley

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the West Ham is -0.198 and for the Southampton is -0.045.
The home dynamic for the West Ham is 0.274 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is -0.194.
The offensive ability for the West Ham is 0.356 and for the Southampton is -0.06.
Finally, the defensive ability for the West Ham is -1 and for the Southampton is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Ham and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Ham

16%

39%

16%

29%

Southampton

40%

36%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 2 goals and Southampton to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.95 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.57 goals and Southampton to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team West Ham to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.55

1

4.63

2-3

2.09

2

4.33

4+

4.18

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.55

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.81

4.27

4.70

2-3 goals

2.03

3.37

4.74

4+ goals

1.58

5.09

5.83

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.80

5.06

Un 1.5

1.81

4.27

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.50

10.36

4.20

Un 2.5

2.34

2.47

5.97

Ov 3.5

1.58

5.09

5.83

Un 3.5

1.94

3.66

4.73

Goal-Goal

2.40

2.66

4.83

No Goal

1.49

7.55

5.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

7.66

3.46

NG+Un 2.5

1.69

7.55

4.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield United vs Burnley at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and Burnley for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield United

2.84

3.30

-4.9

Draw

3.60

3.88

-2.0

Burnley

2.41

2.28

2.4

Over 2.5

1.72

1.98

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.15

2.02

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Under 2.5 (2.4 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield United in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 24.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 May

Newcastle

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 May

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 May

Crystal Palace

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 May

Tottenham

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Apr

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Apr

Arsenal

H

0

3

L

O

N

03 Apr

Leeds

A

1

2

L

O

G


Burnley in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance as a guest.
Burnley, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 May

Liverpool

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 May

Leeds

H

0

4

L

O

N

10 May

Fulham

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 May

West Ham

H

1

2

L

O

G

25 Apr

Wolves

A

4

0

W

O

N

18 Apr

Man United

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Newcastle

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Apr

Southampton

A

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Sheffield United is -0.457 and for the Burnley is -0.29.
The home dynamic for the Sheffield United is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burnley is -0.134.
The offensive ability for the Sheffield United is -0.333 and for the Burnley is -0.126.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sheffield United is 0.04 and for the Burnley is -0.098.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield United

33%

27%

33%

7%

Burnley

24%

32%

24%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.3 goals and Burnley to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.13 goals and Burnley to score 1.41 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

4.02

1

5.85

2-3

2.00

2

4.07

4+

3.98

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.45

Un 1.5

4.02

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at