# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Leicester vs Tottenham at 23 May 2021**** Wolves vs Man United at 23 May 2021**** West Ham vs Southampton at 23 May 2021**** Sheffield United vs Burnley at 23 May 2021**** Liverpool vs Crystal Palace at 23 May 2021**** Leeds vs West Brom at 23 May 2021**** Fulham vs Newcastle at 23 May 2021**** Aston Villa vs Chelsea at 23 May 2021**** Arsenal vs Brighton at 23 May 2021**** Man City vs Everton at 23 May 2021**

###
Leicester vs Tottenham at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leicester** and **Tottenham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **23 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leicester |
2.05 |
2.57 |
-9.9 |

Draw |
3.94 |
3.65 |
2.0 |

Tottenham |
3.36 |
2.96 |
4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
2.07 |
-14.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
1.94 |
9.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Tottenham, Under 2.5 (2 %, 4 %, 9.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** at home**.

Leicester,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 May |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 May |
Man United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 May |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Apr |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Apr |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
West Brom |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

11 Apr |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Apr |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Tottenham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tottenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Tottenham,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 May |
Aston Villa |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 May |
Wolves |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 May |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 May |
Sheffield United |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Apr |
Southampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Apr |
Everton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Man United |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Leicester** is **0.012** and for the **Tottenham** is **0.241.**

The home dynamic for the **Leicester** is **-0.284** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tottenham** is **0.172.**

The offensive ability for the **Leicester** is **1** and for the **Tottenham** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Leicester** is **-0.572** and for the **Tottenham** is **-0.036.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leicester** and the red line for guest team, **Tottenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leicester |
26% |
40% |
12% |
23% |

Tottenham |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and the home team **Leicester ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.71 |
3.21 |

2-3 goals |
3.18 |
3.27 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.05 |
4.57 |
3.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.65 |
2.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.71 |
3.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
8.64 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.38 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.05 |
4.57 |
3.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.82 |
3.43 |
2.83 |

Goal-Goal |
3.14 |
2.66 |
3.28 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.18 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.77 |
2.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
6.18 |
2.64 |

####
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###
Wolves vs Man United at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Man United** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **23 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
2.46 |
3.15 |
-8.9 |

Draw |
3.66 |
3.91 |
-1.7 |

Man United |
2.89 |
2.34 |
8.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.92 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.08 |
2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Man United, Under 2.5 (8.1 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 46.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 May |
Everton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 May |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 May |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 May |
West Brom |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Apr |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Apr |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Apr |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Apr |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** as a guest**.

Man United,** as a guest**, had 11 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 40 points, 74.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 May |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 May |
Liverpool |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

11 May |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 May |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

18 Apr |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wolves** is **-0.336** and for the **Man United** is **0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Wolves** is **-0.443** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Man United** is **0.716.**

The offensive ability for the **Wolves** is **-0.059** and for the **Man United** is **0.563.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wolves** is **-0.572** and for the **Man United** is **-0.585.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Man United. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
33% |
27% |
27% |
13% |

Man United |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.76** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Man United** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.68 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.68 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.83 |
3.19 |
2.35 |

2-3 goals |
2.65 |
5.45 |
2.27 |

4+ goals |
3.83 |
2.99 |
2.47 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.98 |
4.20 |
2.34 |

Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
3.19 |
2.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.77 |
5.73 |
2.15 |

Un 2.5 |
3.72 |
2.89 |
2.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |
2.99 |
2.47 |

Un 3.5 |
2.96 |
4.39 |
2.30 |

Goal-Goal |
3.24 |
2.86 |
2.93 |

No Goal |
3.08 |
6.27 |
1.94 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.68 |
4.66 |
2.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
6.27 |
2.12 |

####
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###
West Ham vs Southampton at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Ham** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **23 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Ham |
1.71 |
1.84 |
-4.1 |

Draw |
3.99 |
3.92 |
0.4 |

Southampton |
4.79 |
4.95 |
-0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.61 |
2.05 |
-13.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.34 |
1.95 |
8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 8.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** at home**.

West Ham,** at home**, had 9 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 31 points, 57.4% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 May |
West Brom |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 May |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 May |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 May |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 May |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

15 May |
Fulham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 May |
Crystal Palace |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 May |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Apr |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Apr |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Apr |
West Brom |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Apr |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **West Ham** is **-0.198** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.045.**

The home dynamic for the **West Ham** is **0.274** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Southampton** is **-0.194.**

The offensive ability for the **West Ham** is **0.356** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.06.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **West Ham** is **-1** and for the **Southampton** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Ham** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Ham |
16% |
39% |
16% |
29% |

Southampton |
40% |
36% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **2 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.95** goals in the game and the home team **West Ham ** to win by **1.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Ham** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **West Ham ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.81 |
4.27 |
4.70 |

2-3 goals |
2.03 |
3.37 |
4.74 |

4+ goals |
1.58 |
5.09 |
5.83 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
3.80 |
5.06 |

Un 1.5 |
1.81 |
4.27 |
4.70 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
10.36 |
4.20 |

Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.47 |
5.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.58 |
5.09 |
5.83 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.66 |
4.73 |

Goal-Goal |
2.40 |
2.66 |
4.83 |

No Goal |
1.49 |
7.55 |
5.08 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.66 |
3.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
7.55 |
4.31 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sheffield United vs Burnley at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sheffield United** and **Burnley** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **23 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sheffield United |
2.84 |
3.30 |
-4.9 |

Draw |
3.60 |
3.88 |
-2.0 |

Burnley |
2.41 |
2.28 |
2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.98 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.02 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Under 2.5 (2.4 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sheffield United** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Sheffield United** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance** at home**.

Sheffield United,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 13 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 24.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 May |
Newcastle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 May |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 May |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 May |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Apr |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Apr |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Apr |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** as a guest**.

Burnley,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 May |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 May |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

10 May |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 May |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Wolves |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Apr |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Apr |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.457** and for the **Burnley** is **-0.29.**

The home dynamic for the **Sheffield United** is **-1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Burnley** is **-0.134.**

The offensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **-0.333** and for the **Burnley** is **-0.126.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sheffield United** is **0.04** and for the **Burnley** is **-0.098.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sheffield United** and the red line for guest team, **Burnley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sheffield United |
33% |
27% |
33% |
7% |

Burnley |
24% |
32% |
24% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Burnley** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sheffield United** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Burnley** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.98 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |