# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crotone vs Fiorentina at 22 May 2021**** Sampdoria vs Parma at 22 May 2021**** Cagliari vs Genoa at 22 May 2021**** Spezia vs Roma at 23 May 2021**** Sassuolo vs Lazio at 23 May 2021**** Torino vs Benevento at 23 May 2021**** Inter vs Udinese at 23 May 2021**** Bologna vs Juventus at 23 May 2021**** Atalanta vs Milan at 23 May 2021**** Napoli vs Verona at 23 May 2021**

###
Crotone vs Fiorentina at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crotone** and **Fiorentina** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crotone |
3.72 |
2.69 |
10.3 |

Draw |
4.05 |
3.70 |
2.3 |

Fiorentina |
1.89 |
2.79 |
-17.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.39 |
1.98 |
-21.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.02 |
15.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crotone, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.3 %, 2.3 %, 15.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crotone** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crotone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance** at home**.

Crotone,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crotone scored in 11 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 May |
Benevento |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 May |
Verona |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 May |
Roma |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

01 May |
Inter |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Parma |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Sampdoria |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Udinese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Fiorentina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fiorentina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance** as a guest**.

Fiorentina,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 May |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 May |
Cagliari |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 May |
Lazio |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 May |
Bologna |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

25 Apr |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Apr |
Verona |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Atalanta |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Crotone** is **-0.239** and for the **Fiorentina** is **0.224.**

The home dynamic for the **Crotone** is **-0.881** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Fiorentina** is **-0.381.**

The offensive ability for the **Crotone** is **0.059** and for the **Fiorentina** is **-0.126.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crotone** is **-1** and for the **Fiorentina** is **0.005.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crotone** and the red line for guest team, **Fiorentina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crotone |
32% |
20% |
36% |
12% |

Fiorentina |
32% |
24% |
28% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Fiorentina** to score **2.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.41** goals in the game and the guest team **Fiorentina ** to win by **0.85** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crotone** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Fiorentina** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.71 |
0-1 |
4.13 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
3.64 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |

5 |
10.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.64 |

NoG |
1.85 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.78 |
2.35 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
10.52 |
2.51 |

4+ goals |
4.23 |
2.27 |
3.09 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
4.54 |
2.69 |

Un 1.5 |
3.78 |
2.35 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.64 |
4.19 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
3.32 |
3.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.23 |
2.27 |
3.09 |

Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
4.87 |
2.71 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.76 |
3.22 |

No Goal |
2.42 |
5.24 |
2.52 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
3.43 |
2.90 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.24 |
2.75 |

####
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###
Sampdoria vs Parma at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sampdoria** and **Parma** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sampdoria |
1.77 |
2.18 |
-10.6 |

Draw |
4.26 |
3.45 |
5.5 |

Parma |
4.12 |
3.97 |
0.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.42 |
2.21 |
-25.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.80 |
1.82 |
19.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Parma, Under 2.5 (5.5 %, 0.9 %, 19.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sampdoria** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sampdoria** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance** at home**.

Sampdoria,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 May |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 May |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 May |
Inter |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

02 May |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Sassuolo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Crotone |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Verona |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Napoli |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Parma** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Parma** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance** as a guest**.

Parma,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Parma scored in 13 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 May |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 May |
Lazio |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 May |
Atalanta |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

03 May |
Torino |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Apr |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Apr |
Cagliari |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Milan |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sampdoria** is **0.093** and for the **Parma** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Sampdoria** is **-0.363** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Parma** is **-0.388.**

The offensive ability for the **Sampdoria** is **0.704** and for the **Parma** is **-0.016.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sampdoria** is **0.538** and for the **Parma** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sampdoria** and the red line for guest team, **Parma. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sampdoria |
28% |
18% |
38% |
15% |

Parma |
47% |
13% |
32% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sampdoria** to score **2.18 ** goals and **Parma** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.33** goals in the game and the home team **Sampdoria ** to win by **1.03** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sampdoria** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Parma** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Sampdoria ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.52 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
8.20 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.41 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.93 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
12.50 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.64 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
1.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
1.92 |
6.89 |

2-3 goals |
1.63 |
21.57 |
2.95 |

4+ goals |
3.66 |
1.86 |
5.30 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.00 |
4.75 |
3.47 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
1.92 |
6.89 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
3.37 |
3.56 |

Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
3.51 |
4.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |
1.86 |
5.30 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
4.81 |
3.66 |

Goal-Goal |
3.21 |
2.41 |
3.64 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
4.67 |
4.20 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.02 |
2.66 |
3.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
4.67 |
4.20 |

####
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###
Cagliari vs Genoa at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cagliari** and **Genoa** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **22 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cagliari |
2.06 |
2.40 |
-6.9 |

Draw |
3.60 |
3.79 |
-1.4 |

Genoa |
3.54 |
3.12 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.01 |
-14.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
1.99 |
8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Genoa, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 8.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cagliari** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cagliari** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance** at home**.

Cagliari,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cagliari scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 May |
Milan |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 May |
Fiorentina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 May |
Benevento |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 May |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Apr |
Roma |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Apr |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Apr |
Parma |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Inter |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** as a guest**.

Genoa,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Atalanta |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 May |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 May |
Sassuolo |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 May |
Lazio |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Apr |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Benevento |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Apr |
Milan |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Juventus |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Cagliari** is **0.409** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.118.**

The home dynamic for the **Cagliari** is **-0.97** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Genoa** is **-0.164.**

The offensive ability for the **Cagliari** is **0.237** and for the **Genoa** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cagliari** is **0.618** and for the **Genoa** is **-0.067.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cagliari** and the red line for guest team, **Genoa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cagliari |
25% |
32% |
25% |
18% |

Genoa |
32% |
33% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cagliari** to score **1.8 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.01** goals in the game and the home team **Cagliari ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cagliari** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.63 |
3.29 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.21 |
4.66 |
2.99 |

4+ goals |
2.57 |
3.15 |
3.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.32 |
4.01 |
3.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.29 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.20 |
2.77 |

Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.74 |
3.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.15 |
3.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
4.07 |
3.05 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.78 |
3.50 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.11 |
2.83 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.09 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.11 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Spezia vs Roma at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Spezia** and **Roma** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **23 May 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Spezia |
5.20 |
2.64 |
18.6 |

Draw |
4.66 |
3.72 |
5.4 |

Roma |
1.56 |
2.84 |
-28.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.38 |
2.12 |
-25.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.94 |
1.89 |
18.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.6 %, 5.4 %, 18.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 13%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** at home**.

Spezia,** at home**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Torino |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 May |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 May |
Napoli |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

01 May |
Verona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Apr |
Genoa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Apr |
Inter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Bologna |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Apr |
Crotone |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Roma** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Roma** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance** as a guest**.

Roma,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 May |
Lazio |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 May |
Inter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 May |
Crotone |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 May |
Sampdoria |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Apr |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Apr |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Apr |
Torino |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Apr |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Spezia** is **-0.231** and for the **Roma** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Spezia** is **-0.313** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Roma** is **-0.037.**

The offensive ability for the **Spezia** is **0.704** and for the **Roma** is **0.53.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Spezia** is **-1** and for the **Roma** is **0.036.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Spezia** and the red line for guest team, **Roma. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Spezia |
30% |
29% |
27% |
14% |

Roma |
36% |
21% |
29% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Roma** to score **2.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.44** goals in the game and the guest team **Roma ** to win by **1.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Roma** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.09 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
5.88 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |