2021 05 22 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crotone vs Fiorentina at 22 May 2021
Sampdoria vs Parma at 22 May 2021
Cagliari vs Genoa at 22 May 2021
Spezia vs Roma at 23 May 2021
Sassuolo vs Lazio at 23 May 2021
Torino vs Benevento at 23 May 2021
Inter vs Udinese at 23 May 2021
Bologna vs Juventus at 23 May 2021
Atalanta vs Milan at 23 May 2021
Napoli vs Verona at 23 May 2021


Crotone vs Fiorentina at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crotone and Fiorentina for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crotone

3.72

2.69

10.3

Draw

4.05

3.70

2.3

Fiorentina

1.89

2.79

-17.1

Over 2.5

1.39

1.98

-21.4

Under 2.5

2.91

2.02

15.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crotone, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.3 %, 2.3 %, 15.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crotone in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crotone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crotone’s performance at home.
Crotone, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 12 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crotone scored in 11 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crotone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 May

Verona

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 May

Roma

A

0

5

L

O

N

01 May

Inter

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Apr

Parma

A

4

3

W

O

G

21 Apr

Sampdoria

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Apr

Udinese

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Apr

Spezia

A

2

3

L

O

G


Fiorentina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance as a guest.
Fiorentina, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 May

Cagliari

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 May

Lazio

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 May

Bologna

A

3

3

D

O

G

25 Apr

Juventus

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Apr

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Apr

Sassuolo

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Atalanta

H

2

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Crotone is -0.239 and for the Fiorentina is 0.224.
The home dynamic for the Crotone is -0.881 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fiorentina is -0.381.
The offensive ability for the Crotone is 0.059 and for the Fiorentina is -0.126.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crotone is -1 and for the Fiorentina is 0.005.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crotone and the red line for guest team, Fiorentina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crotone

32%

20%

36%

12%

Fiorentina

32%

24%

28%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.28 goals and Fiorentina to score 2.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.41 goals in the game and the guest team Fiorentina to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.29 goals and Fiorentina to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

4.13

1

7.19

2-3

2.07

2

3.97

4+

3.64

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.13

5

10.75

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

3.64

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.78

2.35

3.23

2-3 goals

1.98

10.52

2.51

4+ goals

4.23

2.27

3.09

Ov 1.5

2.45

4.54

2.69

Un 1.5

3.78

2.35

3.23

Ov 2.5

2.64

4.19

2.61

Un 2.5

2.71

3.32

3.03

Ov 3.5

4.23

2.27

3.09

Un 3.5

2.35

4.87

2.71

Goal-Goal

3.05

2.76

3.22

No Goal

2.42

5.24

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.75

3.43

2.90

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

5.24

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sampdoria vs Parma at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Parma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sampdoria

1.77

2.18

-10.6

Draw

4.26

3.45

5.5

Parma

4.12

3.97

0.9

Over 2.5

1.42

2.21

-25.2

Under 2.5

2.80

1.82

19.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Parma, Under 2.5 (5.5 %, 0.9 %, 19.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sampdoria in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance at home.
Sampdoria, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 12 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Udinese

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 May

Spezia

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 May

Inter

A

1

5

L

O

G

02 May

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Apr

Sassuolo

A

0

1

L

U

N

21 Apr

Crotone

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Verona

H

3

1

W

O

G

11 Apr

Napoli

H

0

2

L

U

N


Parma in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance as a guest.
Parma, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 11 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 13 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 14 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 13 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Sassuolo

H

1

3

L

O

G

12 May

Lazio

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 May

Atalanta

H

2

5

L

O

G

03 May

Torino

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Apr

Crotone

H

3

4

L

O

G

21 Apr

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Apr

Cagliari

A

3

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Milan

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Sampdoria is 0.093 and for the Parma is -1.
The home dynamic for the Sampdoria is -0.363 and the dynamic as a guest for the Parma is -0.388.
The offensive ability for the Sampdoria is 0.704 and for the Parma is -0.016.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sampdoria is 0.538 and for the Parma is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sampdoria and the red line for guest team, Parma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sampdoria

28%

18%

38%

15%

Parma

47%

13%

32%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 2.18 goals and Parma to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.33 goals in the game and the home team Sampdoria to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.41 goals and Parma to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Sampdoria to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.52

0-1

3.92

1

8.20

2-3

2.02

2

3.41

4+

4.02

3

4.93

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.92

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.64

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

1.61

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

1.92

6.89

2-3 goals

1.63

21.57

2.95

4+ goals

3.66

1.86

5.30

Ov 1.5

2.00

4.75

3.47

Un 1.5

3.00

1.92

6.89

Ov 2.5

2.37

3.37

3.56

Un 2.5

2.05

3.51

4.38

Ov 3.5

3.66

1.86

5.30

Un 3.5

1.93

4.81

3.66

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.41

3.64

No Goal

1.83

4.67

4.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.02

2.66

3.42

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

4.67

4.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cagliari vs Genoa at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cagliari and Genoa for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cagliari

2.06

2.40

-6.9

Draw

3.60

3.79

-1.4

Genoa

3.54

3.12

3.8

Over 2.5

1.56

2.01

-14.4

Under 2.5

2.38

1.99

8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cagliari in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance at home.
Cagliari, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 May

Milan

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 May

Fiorentina

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 May

Benevento

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 May

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Apr

Roma

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Apr

Udinese

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Apr

Parma

H

4

3

W

O

G

11 Apr

Inter

A

0

1

L

U

N


Genoa in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance as a guest.
Genoa, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 31.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Atalanta

H

3

4

L

O

G

12 May

Bologna

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 May

Sassuolo

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 May

Lazio

A

3

4

L

O

G

24 Apr

Spezia

H

2

0

W

U

N

21 Apr

Benevento

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Apr

Milan

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Apr

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Cagliari is 0.409 and for the Genoa is -0.118.
The home dynamic for the Cagliari is -0.97 and the dynamic as a guest for the Genoa is -0.164.
The offensive ability for the Cagliari is 0.237 and for the Genoa is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cagliari is 0.618 and for the Genoa is -0.067.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cagliari

25%

32%

25%

18%

Genoa

32%

33%

23%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.8 goals and Genoa to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Cagliari to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.35 goals and Genoa to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.80

1

5.46

2-3

2.06

2

4.15

4+

3.97

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.80

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.63

3.29

3.17

2-3 goals

2.21

4.66

2.99

4+ goals

2.57

3.15

3.41

Ov 1.5

2.32

4.01

3.12

Un 1.5

2.63

3.29

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.09

6.20

2.77

Un 2.5

2.80

2.74

3.60

Ov 3.5

2.57

3.15

3.41

Un 3.5

2.34

4.07

3.05

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.78

3.50

No Goal

2.07

6.11

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.09

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.11

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Roma at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Roma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

5.20

2.64

18.6

Draw

4.66

3.72

5.4

Roma

1.56

2.84

-28.9

Over 2.5

1.38

2.12

-25.3

Under 2.5

2.94

1.89

18.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.6 %, 5.4 %, 18.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 13%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 5 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 15 of them and received at least one goal in 16 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 14 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Torino

H

4

1

W

O

G

12 May

Sampdoria

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 May

Napoli

H

1

4

L

O

G

01 May

Verona

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Apr

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Apr

Inter

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Bologna

A

1

4

L

O

G

10 Apr

Crotone

H

3

2

W

O

G


Roma in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance as a guest.
Roma, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 35.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 15 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 12 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 May

Lazio

H

2

0

W

U

N

12 May

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 May

Crotone

H

5

0

W

O

N

02 May

Sampdoria

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Apr

Cagliari

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Apr

Atalanta

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Apr

Torino

A

1

3

L

O

G

11 Apr

Bologna

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Spezia is -0.231 and for the Roma is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.313 and the dynamic as a guest for the Roma is -0.037.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is 0.704 and for the Roma is 0.53.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -1 and for the Roma is 0.036.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Roma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

30%

29%

27%

14%

Roma

36%

21%

29%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.98 goals and Roma to score 2.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.44 goals in the game and the guest team Roma to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.24 goals and Roma to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

3.57

1

5.88

2-3

2.08

2

4.02

4+

4.18

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.57

5

13.33

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG