2021 05 22 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Valencia vs Fuenlabrada at 22 May 2021
Tenerife vs Barcelona at 22 May 2021
Manresa vs Baskonia at 23 May 2021
Real Betis vs Gran Canaria at 23 May 2021
Andorra vs Gipuzkoa at 23 May 2021
San Pablo Burgos vs Obradoiro at 23 May 2021
Murcia vs Zaragoza at 23 May 2021
Unicaja Malaga vs Real Madrid at 23 May 2021
Bilbao vs Joventut Badalona at 23 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Valencia vs Fuenlabrada at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.11

1.87

Fuenlabrada

7.2

2.15

Valencia HC

-11.5

-2.00

Fuenlabrada HC

+11.5

2.00

Point Line

170.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

86

92

23

12

L 1

85

93

May 9

A

Real Madrid

W

79

69

23

11

W 6

86

66

May 2

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

100

89

22

11

W 5

93

89

Apr 30

A

UCAM Murcia

W

80

66

21

11

W 4

81

67

Apr 25

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

99

90

20

11

W 3

94

93

Apr 16

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

97

82

19

11

W 2

96

84

Apr 11

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

85

76

18

11

W 1

79

75

Apr 4

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

89

102

17

11

L 4

86

98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fuenlabrada are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

101

77

12

23

W 1

99

82

May 15

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

L

82

87

11

23

L 2

78

90

May 6

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

71

85

11

22

L 1

73

89

May 2

H

Iberostar Tenerife

W

98

65

11

21

W 2

103

61

Apr 30

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

87

86

10

21

W 1

81

86

Apr 25

H

Real Madrid

L

76

90

9

21

L 1

82

86

Apr 11

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

89

83

9

20

W 2

89

78

Apr 3

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

84

82

8

20

W 1

83

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fuenlabrada.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fuenlabrada and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Fuenlabrada in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 85 points and the Fuenlabrada 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

Fuenlabrada

FG%

0.59

0.51

ASS

19.60

14.70

DRB

21.60

21.40

AST-TO

1.54

1.07

TRB

28.60

31.90

FTM

14.10

15.00

BL

1.70

3.10

FTA

17.40

20.50

PF-Fewer

16.60

21.80

ST

6.40

8.20

TO-Fewer

12.70

13.70

Ftper

0.81

0.73

ORBper

0.32

0.49

ORB

7.00

10.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Tenerife vs Barcelona at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Tenerife

3

1.90

Barcelona

1.42

2.11

Tenerife HC

+5.5

-1.50

Barcelona HC

-5.5

1.50

Point Line

163.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Tenerife are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

91

60

27

8

W 1

84

60

May 2

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

65

98

26

8

L 1

65

100

Apr 29

H

Acunsa GBC

W

98

69

26

7

W 1

93

76

Apr 24

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

85

90

25

7

L 1

82

86

Apr 21

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

86

67

25

6

W 2

81

70

Apr 18

H

Unicaja

W

79

61

24

6

W 1

79

60

Apr 13

A

Real Madrid

L

76

84

23

6

L 1

82

80

Apr 11

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

101

77

23

5

W 6

94

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

H

Baskonia

W

87

74

31

4

W 6

91

74

May 9

A

Coosur Real Betis

W

109

58

30

4

W 5

106

62

May 6

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

76

70

29

4

W 4

75

72

Apr 25

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

79

63

28

4

W 3

82

66

Apr 17

H

Manresa

W

97

89

27

4

W 2

92

88

Apr 14

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

92

74

26

4

W 1

91

75

Apr 11

H

Real Madrid

L

85

87

25

4

L 1

92

83

Apr 4

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

93

77

25

3

W 16

93

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Tenerife and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Tenerife.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Tenerife (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Tenerife will expected to score 80 points and the Barcelona 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Tenerife

Barcelona

FG%

0.54

0.48

ASS

16.00

15.10

DRB

19.50

18.10

AST-TO

1.24

1.13

TRB

28.30

26.70

FTM

12.90

13.50

BL

2.20

2.30

FTA

17.20

17.50

PF-Fewer

20.90

20.80

ST

6.50

8.20

TO-Fewer

12.90

13.40

Ftper

0.75

0.77

ORBper

0.45

0.48

ORB

8.70

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Manresa vs Baskonia at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Baskonia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Manresa

2.52

1.70

Baskonia

1.55

2.42

Manresa HC

+3.5

-3.00

Baskonia HC

-3.5

3.00

Point Line

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 9

H

Acunsa GBC

W

91

83

16

19

W 1

87

92

May 2

A

Coosur Real Betis

L

70

86

15

19

L 2

68

91

Apr 28

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

68

96

15

18

L 1

66

92

Apr 24

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

102

101

15

17

W 1

95

101

Apr 17

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

89

97

14

17

L 1

100

91

Apr 15

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

92

82

14

16

W 1

86

81

Apr 10

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

87

90

13

16

L 1

86

92

Apr 3

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

108

96

13

15

W 1

102

100

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

87

23

12

L 2

83

82

May 16

H

Unicaja

L

70

79

23

11

L 1

70

78

May 13

A

Acunsa GBC

W

81

63

23

10

W 1

77

70

May 11

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

71

79

22

10

L 2

69

76

Apr 18

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

83

94

22

9

L 1

83

88

Apr 15

H

Movistar Estudiantes

W

96

92

22

8

W 1

90

92

Apr 11

A

UCAM Murcia

L

87

92

21

8

L 1

88

94

Apr 4

A

MoraBanc Andorra

W

82

68

21

7

W 1

85

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 81 points and the Baskonia 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Manresa

Baskonia

FG%

0.55

0.53

ASS

15.80

16.70

DRB

22.20

21.50

AST-TO

1.15

1.23

TRB

30.90

30.60

FTM

17.60

9.90

BL

3.60

2.30

FTA

22.80

13.20

PF-Fewer

20.50

20.00

ST

8.50

7.30

TO-Fewer

13.70

13.60

Ftper

0.77

0.74

ORBper

0.39

0.42

ORB

8.70

9.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Real Betis vs Gran Canaria at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Gran Canaria for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Betis

2.37

1.89

Gran Canaria

1.62

2.13

Real Betis HC

+3.5

-1.50

Gran Canaria HC

-3.5

1.50

Point Line

164.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

77

101

11

24

L 2

77

103

May 9

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

58

109

11

23

L 1

65

102

May 2

H

Manresa

W

86

70

11

22

W 1

82

69

Apr 29

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

77

95

10

22

L 1

77

90

Apr 25

H

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

88

87

10

21

W 2

87

89

Apr 18

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

96

82

9

21

W 1

90

82

Apr 15

H

UCAM Murcia

L

55

84

8

21

L 1

55

86

Apr 10

A

Acunsa GBC

W

91

68

8

20

W 1

87

75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

H

Valencia Basket

W

92

86

17

18

W 2

94

82

May 12

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

92

71

16

18

W 1

87

74

May 9

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

81

86

15

18

L 1

84

90

May 2

H

UCAM Murcia

W

91

81

15

17

W 2

92

83

Apr 25

H

San Pablo Burgos

W

83

74

14

17

W 1

83

70

Apr 18

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

88

89

13

17

L 2

87

92

Apr 14

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

74

92

13

16

L 1

83

86

Apr 11

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

103

84

13

15

W 4

100

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Gran Canaria in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 80 points and the Gran Canaria 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Betis

Gran Canaria

FG%

0.50

0.54

ASS

13.60

15.90

DRB

20.40

20.90

AST-TO

1.04

1.31

TRB

30.80

29.60

FTM

14.90

12.90

BL

2.50

3.10

FTA

19.60

17.30

PF-Fewer

19.70

19.80

ST

7.80

7.20

TO-Fewer

13.10

12.10

Ftper

0.76

0.75

ORBper

0.51

0.42

ORB

10.40

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Andorra vs Gipuzkoa at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Andorra and Gipuzkoa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Andorra

1.2

1.47

Gipuzkoa

4.8

3.14

Andorra HC

-10.5

-5.50

Gipuzkoa HC

+10.5

5.50

Point Line

157.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Andorra are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

92

99

16

19

L 1

89

95

May 15

A

UCAM Murcia

W

79

76

16

18

W 4

80

78

May 12

A

Unicaja

W

92

85

15

18

W 3

92

84

May 9

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

86

81

14

18

W 2