2021 05 22 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg at 22 May 2021
Unics vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 23 May 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



CSKA Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg at 22 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between CSKA Moscow and Zenit Saint Petersburg for VTB United League, which will take place on 22 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

CSKA Moscow

1.45

1.27

Zenit Saint Petersburg

2.82

4.67

CSKA Moscow HC

-4.5

-8.00

Zenit Saint Petersburg HC

+4.5

8.00

Point Line

153.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

104

107

20

9

L 1

118

105

May 17

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

78

73

20

8

W 2

88

72

May 15

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

79

75

19

8

W 1

81

77

May 13

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

72

76

18

8

L 1

74

78

May 11

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

84

59

18

7

W 2

86

61

Apr 25

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

85

84

17

7

W 1

87

87

Apr 17

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

94

103

16

7

L 1

92

91

Apr 11

H

Astana

W

100

77

16

6

W 1

94

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zenit Saint Petersburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 19

H

CSKA Moscow

W

107

104

23

5

W 1

113

91

May 17

H

CSKA Moscow

L

73

78

22

5

L 1

77

68

May 13

A

Parma

W

98

62

22

4

W 3

100

65

May 11

H

Parma

W

86

66

21

4

W 2

88

69

Apr 17

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

70

62

20

4

W 1

72

64

Apr 14

A

Parma

L

76

78

19

4

L 1

78

82

Apr 5

H

CSKA Moscow

W

81

77

19

3

W 4

86

68

Mar 23

A

Avtodor

W

89

62

18

3

W 3

84

61

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zenit Saint Petersburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zenit Saint Petersburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by CSKA Moscow (in the first graph) and by Zenit Saint Petersburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, CSKA Moscow will expected to score 82 points and the Zenit Saint Petersburg 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

CSKA Moscow

Zenit Saint Petersburg

FG%

0.58

0.57

ASS

19.50

19.20

DRB

22.30

22.80

AST-TO

1.65

1.39

TRB

32.60

31.00

FTM

19.40

18.00

BL

3.50

2.80

FTA

24.80

22.20

PF-Fewer

20.30

21.40

ST

7.00

7.30

TO-Fewer

11.80

13.80

Ftper

0.78

0.81

ORBper

0.46

0.36

ORB

10.30

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unics vs Lokomotiv Kuban at 23 May 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unics and Lokomotiv Kuban for VTB United League, which will take place on 23 May 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unics

1.45

3.18

Lokomotiv Kuban

2.87

1.46

Unics HC

-4.5

5.50

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

+4.5

-5.50

Point Line

166.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

79

69

22

6

W 4

77

61

May 18

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

98

87

21

6

W 3

95

77

May 14

A

Zielona Gora

W

90

79

20

6

W 2

85

75

May 12

H

Zielona Gora

W

87

60

19

6

W 1

83

57

Apr 25

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

77

98

18

6

L 1

75

86

Apr 22

A

Enisey

W

84

77

18

5

W 3

79

81

Apr 20

H

Parma

W

69

51

17

5

W 2

71

54

Apr 17

A

Astana

W

87

74

16

5

W 1

82

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

May 20

H

UNICS

L

69

79

19

8

L 2

75

80

May 18

H

UNICS

L

87

98

19

7

L 1

95

99

May 13

A

BC Khimki

W

92

85

19

6

W 11

93

83

May 11

H

BC Khimki

W

89

80

18

6

W 10

90

78

Apr 25

A

UNICS

W

98

77

17

6

W 9

107

78

Apr 17

H

CSKA Moscow

W

103

94

16

6

W 8

109

82

Apr 12

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

101

75

15

6

W 7

97

84

Apr 3

H

Astana

W

90

84

14

6

W 6

84

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unics (in the first graph) and by Lokomotiv Kuban in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unics will expected to score 83 points and the Lokomotiv Kuban 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unics

Lokomotiv Kuban

FG%

0.55

0.56

ASS

16.20

22.30

DRB

20.80

25.00

AST-TO

1.34

1.81

TRB

30.00

33.90

FTM

14.30

16.70

BL

1.60

3.50

FTA

18.70

22.00

PF-Fewer

21.90

20.00

ST

8.30

6.80

TO-Fewer

12.10

12.30

Ftper

0.77

0.76

ORBper

0.44

0.36

ORB

9.20

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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