Birmingham Vs Fulham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Birmingham and Fulham for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team

Home

Draw

Away

Over

Under
Book 3.61 3.15 2.2 2.31 1.64
Estim 2.48 3.65 3.09 2.26 1.79
Value % 12.62 -4.35 -13.09 0.96 -5.11

Basic Data and latest results

Birmingham basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 2 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 1 1 0 3
Birmingham latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
10 Sep Derby H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Barnsley A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Luton A 5 0 W O Ng
18 Aug Bournemouth H 0 2 L U Ng
14 Aug Stoke H 0 0 D U Ng
07 Aug Sheffield United A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Fulham basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2
At Away 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
Fulham latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Blackpool A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Stoke H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Aug Hull H 2 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Millwall A 2 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Huddersfield A 5 1 W O Gg
08 Aug Middlesbrough H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lineups and team news

The possible lineups for the game are:

Birmingham (3-5-2) Fulham (4-2-3-1)
Player

Pos

Player

Pos
Matija Sarkic GK Paulo Gazzaniga GK
Kristian Pedersen DC Antonee Robinson DL
Harlee Dean DC Tosin Adarabioyo DC
Marc Roberts DC Tim Ream DC
J?r?mie Bela DML Denis Odoi DR
Ivan Sunjic MC Jean Michael Seri DMC
Ryan Woods MC Nathaniel Chalobah DMC
Tahith Chong MC Ivan Cavaleiro AML
Maxime Colin DMR Neeskens Kebano AMC
Scott Hogan FW Bobby De Cordova-Reid AMR
Troy Deeney FW Aleksandar Mitrovic FW

Basic Data

Predictions

Birmingham news and injuries

Birmingham boss Gary Bowyer could hand a full debut to boyhood fan Troy Deeney who appeared from the bench against Derby on Friday night. Goalkeeper Neil Etheridge remains the home side’s only confirmed absentee heading into gameweek seven.
.

Injured player

Status
Neil Etheridge Out
Fulham news and injuries

.
Fabio Carvalho is nursing a knock that he suffered prior to the international break. Harry Wilson suffered an injury while playing for Wales in the international break and will miss the trip to the Midlands. Marco Silva could hand a debut to former Watford midfielder Nathaniel Chalobah in midweek, while Neeskens Kebano may be recalled in front of him.

Injured player

Status
Tom Cairney Out
Terence Kongolo Out
Kenny Tete Out
Harry Wilson Out
Fabio Carvalho Out

Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction

Betting facts
  • Birmingham have seen under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 11 home matches against Fulham in all competitions.
  • Fulham have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches against Birmingham in all competitions.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Birmingham’s last 7 home games (Championship).
  • Fulham have won their last 3 matches against Birmingham in all competitions.

Desicive betting factors
  • The form score for the Birmingham is 0.794 and for the Fulham is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Birmingham is 0.025 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is 0.236.
  • The offensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.358 and for the Fulham is -0.06.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Birmingham is 1 and for the Fulham is 0.492.

Optimal equations estimations

Expected game result

The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls
Birmingham 29% 32% 24% 15%
Fulham 34% 35% 18% 13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 0.92 goals and Fulham to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Fulham to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.24 goals and Fulham to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Expected total goals number

The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds
0 9.9 0-1 3.19
1 4.72 2-3 2.12
2 4.1 4+ 4.67
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.19
5 17.24 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.16 Ov 3.5 4.67
NoG 1.87 Un 3.5 1.27

Various goals scenarios

The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.

If game ends with

-1-

-X-

-2-
0-1 goals 2.82 3.1 3.1
2-3 goals 2.2 4.25 3.23
4+ goals 2.78 3.45 2.85
Ov 1.5 2.35 3.97 3.1
Un 1.5 2.82 3.1 3.1
Ov 2.5 2.1 7.13 2.6
Un 2.5 2.89 2.63 3.66
Ov 3.5 2.78 3.45 2.85
Un 3.5 2.41 3.7 3.18
Goal-Goal 2.9 2.68 3.54
No Goal 2.2 5.3 2.8
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.21 5.69 2.69
NG+Un 2.5 2.31 5.3 2.93

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