In this article I will analyze the game between Birmingham and Fulham for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Birmingham basic data
Birmingham latest results
|07 Aug||Sheffield United||A||1||0||W||U||Ng|
Fulham basic data
Fulham latest results
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Birmingham (3-5-2)||Fulham (4-2-3-1)|
|Matija Sarkic||GK||Paulo Gazzaniga||GK|
|Kristian Pedersen||DC||Antonee Robinson||DL|
|Harlee Dean||DC||Tosin Adarabioyo||DC|
|Marc Roberts||DC||Tim Ream||DC|
|J?r?mie Bela||DML||Denis Odoi||DR|
|Ivan Sunjic||MC||Jean Michael Seri||DMC|
|Ryan Woods||MC||Nathaniel Chalobah||DMC|
|Tahith Chong||MC||Ivan Cavaleiro||AML|
|Maxime Colin||DMR||Neeskens Kebano||AMC|
|Scott Hogan||FW||Bobby De Cordova-Reid||AMR|
|Troy Deeney||FW||Aleksandar Mitrovic||FW|
Birmingham news and injuries
Birmingham boss Gary Bowyer could hand a full debut to boyhood fan Troy Deeney who appeared from the bench against Derby on Friday night. Goalkeeper Neil Etheridge remains the home side’s only confirmed absentee heading into gameweek seven.
Fulham news and injuries
Fabio Carvalho is nursing a knock that he suffered prior to the international break. Harry Wilson suffered an injury while playing for Wales in the international break and will miss the trip to the Midlands. Marco Silva could hand a debut to former Watford midfielder Nathaniel Chalobah in midweek, while Neeskens Kebano may be recalled in front of him.
Betting information and prediction
- Birmingham have seen under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 11 home matches against Fulham in all competitions.
- Fulham have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches against Birmingham in all competitions.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Birmingham’s last 7 home games (Championship).
- Fulham have won their last 3 matches against Birmingham in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Birmingham is 0.794 and for the Fulham is 1.
- The home dynamic for the Birmingham is 0.025 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is 0.236.
- The offensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.358 and for the Fulham is -0.06.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Birmingham is 1 and for the Fulham is 0.492.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 0.92 goals and Fulham to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and the guest team Fulham to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.24 goals and Fulham to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|