In this article I will analyze the game between Bristol City and Luton for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Bristol City basic data
Bristol City latest results
Luton basic data
Luton latest results
|28 Aug||Sheffield United||H||0||0||D||U||Ng|
|14 Aug||West Brom||A||2||3||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Bristol City (3-5-2)||Luton (4-3-3)|
|Daniel Bentley||GK||Simon Sluga||GK|
|Nathan Baker||DC||Kal Naismith||DL|
|Robert Atkinson||DC||Sonny Bradley||DC|
|Tomas Kalas||DC||Tom Lockyer||DC|
|Cameron Pring||DML||James Bree||DR|
|Matty James||MC||Luke Berry||MC|
|Han-Noah Massengo||MC||Gabriel Osho||MC|
|Andy King||MC||Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu||MC|
|Zak Vyner||DMR||Carlos Mendes Gomes||FWL|
|Chris Martin||FW||Cameron Jerome||FW|
|Andreas Weimann||FW||Harry Cornick||FWR|
Bristol City news and injuries
Central midfielder Joe Williams and winger Callum O’Dowda are both set to miss out for the hosts.
. Nigel Pearson could name an unchanged starting XI for the visit of Luton as he continues to keep faith in his 3-5-2 system.
Luton news and injuries
Allan Campbell suffered an injury in the opening stages of Luton’s game against Blackburn on Saturday and will be replaced by Luke Berry, who scored twice from the bench. Fred Onyedinma and Amari’i Bell are both struggling with injuries. .
Elijah Adebayo missed the trip to Ewood Park through illness.
Betting information and prediction
- Bristol City have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 8 matches against Luton in all competitions.
- Luton have won 7 of their last 8 matches against Bristol City in all competitions.
- Bristol City have failed to win their last 13 home matches (Championship).
- Luton have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches against Bristol City in all competitions.
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Luton’s last 6 away games (Championship).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Bristol City’s last 3 home games (Championship).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Bristol City is 0.291 and for the Luton is -0.451.
- The home dynamic for the Bristol City is -0.333 and the dynamic as a guest for the Luton is -0.252.
- The offensive ability for the Bristol City is -1 and for the Luton is -0.94.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Bristol City is -0.401 and for the Luton is 1.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.21 goals and Luton to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.31 goals and Luton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|