Bristol City Vs Luton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bristol City and Luton for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team

Home

Draw

Away

Over

Under
Book 2.36 3.15 3.28 2.39 1.6
Estim 2.39 3.47 3.41 2.25 1.8
Value % -0.53 -2.93 -1.16 2.6 -6.94

Basic Data and latest results

Bristol City basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
Bristol City latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Preston H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Cardiff A 2 1 W O Gg
20 Aug Swansea H 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Reading A 3 2 W O Gg
14 Aug Middlesbrough A 1 2 L O Gg
07 Aug Blackpool H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Luton basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 3 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
Luton latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Blackburn A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Sheffield United H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Birmingham H 0 5 L O Ng
17 Aug Barnsley A 1 0 W U Ng
14 Aug West Brom A 2 3 L O Gg
07 Aug Peterboro H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lineups and team news

The possible lineups for the game are:

Bristol City (3-5-2) Luton (4-3-3)
Player

Pos

Player

Pos
Daniel Bentley GK Simon Sluga GK
Nathan Baker DC Kal Naismith DL
Robert Atkinson DC Sonny Bradley DC
Tomas Kalas DC Tom Lockyer DC
Cameron Pring DML James Bree DR
Matty James MC Luke Berry MC
Han-Noah Massengo MC Gabriel Osho MC
Andy King MC Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu MC
Zak Vyner DMR Carlos Mendes Gomes FWL
Chris Martin FW Cameron Jerome FW
Andreas Weimann FW Harry Cornick FWR

Basic Data

Predictions

Bristol City news and injuries

Central midfielder Joe Williams and winger Callum O’Dowda are both set to miss out for the hosts.
. Nigel Pearson could name an unchanged starting XI for the visit of Luton as he continues to keep faith in his 3-5-2 system.

Injured player

Status
Joe Williams Out
Callum O’Dowda Doubtful
Luton news and injuries

Allan Campbell suffered an injury in the opening stages of Luton’s game against Blackburn on Saturday and will be replaced by Luke Berry, who scored twice from the bench. Fred Onyedinma and Amari’i Bell are both struggling with injuries. .
Elijah Adebayo missed the trip to Ewood Park through illness.

Injured player

Status
Allan Campbell Out
Jordan Clark Out
Amari’i Bell Out
Fred Onyedinma Out
Elijah Adebayo Doubtful

Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction

Betting facts
  • Bristol City have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 8 matches against Luton in all competitions.
  • Luton have won 7 of their last 8 matches against Bristol City in all competitions.
  • Bristol City have failed to win their last 13 home matches (Championship).
  • Luton have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches against Bristol City in all competitions.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Luton’s last 6 away games (Championship).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Bristol City’s last 3 home games (Championship).

Desicive betting factors
  • The form score for the Bristol City is 0.291 and for the Luton is -0.451.
  • The home dynamic for the Bristol City is -0.333 and the dynamic as a guest for the Luton is -0.252.
  • The offensive ability for the Bristol City is -1 and for the Luton is -0.94.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bristol City is -0.401 and for the Luton is 1.

Optimal equations estimations

Expected game result

The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls
Bristol City 20% 45% 17% 17%
Luton 32% 38% 21% 9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.21 goals and Luton to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.31 goals and Luton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Expected total goals number

The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds
0 15.38 0-1 3.5
1 4.52 2-3 1.99
2 3.72 4+ 4.72
3 4.29 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.5
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 4.72
NoG 2.18 Un 3.5 1.27

Various goals scenarios

The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.

If game ends with

-1-

-X-

-2-
0-1 goals 2 4.4 3.67
2-3 goals 2.87 2.94 3.22
4+ goals 2.1 4.08 3.59
Ov 1.5 2.59 3.2 3.32
Un 1.5 2 4.4 3.67
Ov 2.5 2.01 8.56 2.59
Un 2.5 2.8 2.35 4.59
Ov 3.5 2.1 4.08 3.59
Un 3.5 2.48 3.34 3.37
Goal-Goal 3.27 2.43 3.54
No Goal 1.81 7.05 3.27
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 7.13 2.42
NG+Un 2.5 1.94 7.05 3.17

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