In this article I will analyze the game between Coventry and Cardiff for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Coventry basic data
Coventry latest results
|08 Aug||Nott’m Forest||H||2||1||W||O||Gg|
Cardiff basic data
Cardiff latest results
|12 Sep||Nott’m Forest||A||2||1||W||O||Gg|
|28 Aug||Bristol City||H||1||2||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Coventry (3-4-1-2)||Cardiff (3-4-3)|
|Simon Moore||GK||Dillon Phillips||GK|
|Jake Clarke-Salter||DC||Curtis Nelson||DC|
|Kyle McFadzean||DC||Aden Flint||DC|
|Dominic Hyam||DC||Sean Morrison||DC|
|Ian Maatsen||ML||Joel Bagan||DML|
|Ben Sheaf||MC||Marlon Pack||MC|
|Gustavo Hamer||MC||Joe Ralls||MC|
|Fankaty Dabo||MR||Tom Sang||DMR|
|Callum O’Hare||AMC||Rubin Colwill||FWL|
|Martyn Waghorn||FW||Kieffer Moore||FW|
|Viktor Gy?keres||FW||Mark Harris||FWR|
Coventry news and injuries
. The hosts have two confirmed absentees with Tyler Walker and Liam Kelly both still ruled out. Mark Robins could make a single change for the visit of Cardiff in midweek with central midfielder Ben Sheaf returning to the starting XI in place of Jamie Allen.
Cardiff news and injuries
Rubin Colwill and Kieffer Moore both made an impact from the bench at the weekend and will be handed starts in midweek.
. Ciaron Brown is back fit for the away side, but there will be no midweek action for Ryan Giles, who will miss out through injury.
Betting information and prediction
- Coventry have won 6 of their last 7 home matches (Championship).
- Cardiff have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 11 matches against Coventry in all competitions.
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Cardiff’s last 4 games (Championship).
- Coventry have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Championship).
- Cardiff have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 away matches (Championship).
- Cardiff are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches (Championship).
- Cardiff are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches against Coventry in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Coventry is 0.771 and for the Cardiff is 0.604.
- The home dynamic for the Coventry is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cardiff is 1.
- The offensive ability for the Coventry is -0.623 and for the Cardiff is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Coventry is 0.096 and for the Cardiff is -0.385.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.31 goals and Cardiff to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.29 goals and Cardiff to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|