Coventry Vs Cardiff

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Coventry and Cardiff for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team

Home

Draw

Away

Over

Under
Book 2.28 3.26 3.33 2.17 1.73
Estim 2.54 3.64 3.02 2.11 1.9
Value % -4.49 -3.2 3.08 1.31 -5.17

Basic Data and latest results

Coventry basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1
Coventry latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Middlesbrough H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug QPR A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Reading H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Blackpool A 1 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Barnsley A 0 1 L U Ng
08 Aug Nott’m Forest H 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Cardiff basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Away 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
Cardiff latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
12 Sep Nott’m Forest A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Bristol City H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Aug Millwall H 3 1 W O Gg
17 Aug Peterboro A 2 2 D O Gg
14 Aug Blackpool A 2 0 W U Ng
07 Aug Barnsley H 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lineups and team news

The possible lineups for the game are:

Coventry (3-4-1-2) Cardiff (3-4-3)
Player

Pos

Player

Pos
Simon Moore GK Dillon Phillips GK
Jake Clarke-Salter DC Curtis Nelson DC
Kyle McFadzean DC Aden Flint DC
Dominic Hyam DC Sean Morrison DC
Ian Maatsen ML Joel Bagan DML
Ben Sheaf MC Marlon Pack MC
Gustavo Hamer MC Joe Ralls MC
Fankaty Dabo MR Tom Sang DMR
Callum O’Hare AMC Rubin Colwill FWL
Martyn Waghorn FW Kieffer Moore FW
Viktor Gy?keres FW Mark Harris FWR

Basic Data

Predictions

Coventry news and injuries


. The hosts have two confirmed absentees with Tyler Walker and Liam Kelly both still ruled out. Mark Robins could make a single change for the visit of Cardiff in midweek with central midfielder Ben Sheaf returning to the starting XI in place of Jamie Allen.

Injured player

Status
Tyler Walker Out
Liam Kelly Out
Cardiff news and injuries

Rubin Colwill and Kieffer Moore both made an impact from the bench at the weekend and will be handed starts in midweek.
. Ciaron Brown is back fit for the away side, but there will be no midweek action for Ryan Giles, who will miss out through injury.

Injured player

Status
Ryan Giles Out

Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction

Betting facts
  • Coventry have won 6 of their last 7 home matches (Championship).
  • Cardiff have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 11 matches against Coventry in all competitions.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Cardiff’s last 4 games (Championship).
  • Coventry have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Championship).
  • Cardiff have scored at least 2 goals in their last 4 away matches (Championship).
  • Cardiff are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches (Championship).
  • Cardiff are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches against Coventry in all competitions.

Desicive betting factors
  • The form score for the Coventry is 0.771 and for the Cardiff is 0.604.
  • The home dynamic for the Coventry is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cardiff is 1.
  • The offensive ability for the Coventry is -0.623 and for the Cardiff is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Coventry is 0.096 and for the Cardiff is -0.385.

Optimal equations estimations

Expected game result

The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls
Coventry 26% 34% 24% 16%
Cardiff 29% 37% 22% 12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.31 goals and Cardiff to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.29 goals and Cardiff to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Expected total goals number

The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.69
1 5.1 2-3 2.02
2 3.92 4+ 4.29
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.58 Un 1.5 3.69
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.11
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.9
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 4.29
NoG 2.11 Un 3.5 1.3

Various goals scenarios

The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.

If game ends with

-1-

-X-

-2-
0-1 goals 2.74 3.61 2.79
2-3 goals 2.44 3.84 3.02
4+ goals 2.53 3.28 3.33
Ov 1.5 2.47 3.65 3.12
Un 1.5 2.74 3.61 2.79
Ov 2.5 2.1 6.68 2.68
Un 2.5 3.13 2.58 3.42
Ov 3.5 2.53 3.28 3.33
Un 3.5 2.54 3.76 2.94
Goal-Goal 2.91 2.64 3.61
No Goal 2.22 6.31 2.56
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.2 5.61 2.73
NG+Un 2.5 2.36 6.31 2.58

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