In this article I will analyze the game between Nott’m Forest and Middlesbrough for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Nott’m Forest basic data
Nott’m Forest latest results
Middlesbrough basic data
Middlesbrough latest results
|14 Aug||Bristol City||H||2||1||W||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Nott’m Forest (4-4-2)||Middlesbrough (3-5-2)|
|Brice Samba||GK||Joe Lumley||GK|
|Max Lowe||DL||Patrick McNair||DC|
|Joe Worrall||DC||Grant Hall||DC|
|Scott McKenna||DC||Dael Fry||DC|
|Djed Spence||DR||Isaiah Jones||DML|
|Brennan Johnson||ML||James L?a Siliki||MC|
|James Garner||MC||Marcus Tavernier||MC|
|Ryan Yates||MC||Jonny Howson||MC|
|Joe Lolley||MR||Anfernee Dijksteel||DMR|
|Lewis Grabban||FW||Uche Ikpeazu||FW|
|Lyle Taylor||FW||Matt Crooks||FW|
Nott’m Forest news and injuries
The home side have one confirmed absentee for this midweek clash with Jordi Osei-Tutu ruled out with a hamstring problem.
. Chris Hughton could make one change to the starting XI that faced Cardiff at the weekend with winger Joe Lolley replacing Watford loanee Philip Zinckernagel.
Middlesbrough news and injuries
Summer signing Onel Hernandez is back available but Marcus Browne is still struggling with an injury. Paddy McNair missed the trip to Coventry after a demanding international break, but should return to the starting XI here. . James Lea Siliki could make his full debut after appearing from the bench against Coventry.
Betting information and prediction
- Nottingham Forest have lost their last 4 home matches (Championship).
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Nottingham Forest’s last 4 home games (Championship).
- Nottingham Forest have seen over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches against Middlesbrough in all competitions.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Middlesbrough’s last 4 away games (Championship).
- Nottingham Forest have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 home matches (Championship).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Nott’m Forest is -1 and for the Middlesbrough is -1.
- The home dynamic for the Nott’m Forest is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Middlesbrough is -1.
- The offensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 1 and for the Middlesbrough is -1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is -1 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.277.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.04 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.32 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|