Nott’m Forest Vs Middlesbrough

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Nott’m Forest and Middlesbrough for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team

Home

Draw

Away

Over

Under
Book 2.86 3.08 2.71 2.49 1.57
Estim 2.42 3.69 3.17 2.1 1.91
Value % 6.36 -5.37 -5.35 7.46 -11.34

Basic Data and latest results

Nott’m Forest basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 0 0 3 0 3 3 3 0
Nott’m Forest latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
12 Sep Cardiff H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Derby A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Stoke A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Aug Blackburn H 1 2 L O Gg
14 Aug Bournemouth H 1 2 L O Gg
08 Aug Coventry A 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Middlesbrough basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
At Away 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3
Middlesbrough latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Coventry A 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Blackburn H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Derby A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Aug QPR H 2 3 L O Gg
14 Aug Bristol City H 2 1 W O Gg
08 Aug Fulham A 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lineups and team news

The possible lineups for the game are:

Nott’m Forest (4-4-2) Middlesbrough (3-5-2)
Player

Pos

Player

Pos
Brice Samba GK Joe Lumley GK
Max Lowe DL Patrick McNair DC
Joe Worrall DC Grant Hall DC
Scott McKenna DC Dael Fry DC
Djed Spence DR Isaiah Jones DML
Brennan Johnson ML James L?a Siliki MC
James Garner MC Marcus Tavernier MC
Ryan Yates MC Jonny Howson MC
Joe Lolley MR Anfernee Dijksteel DMR
Lewis Grabban FW Uche Ikpeazu FW
Lyle Taylor FW Matt Crooks FW

Basic Data

Predictions

Nott’m Forest news and injuries

The home side have one confirmed absentee for this midweek clash with Jordi Osei-Tutu ruled out with a hamstring problem.
. Chris Hughton could make one change to the starting XI that faced Cardiff at the weekend with winger Joe Lolley replacing Watford loanee Philip Zinckernagel.

Injured player

Status
Jordi Osei-Tutu Out
Middlesbrough news and injuries


Summer signing Onel Hernandez is back available but Marcus Browne is still struggling with an injury. Paddy McNair missed the trip to Coventry after a demanding international break, but should return to the starting XI here. . James Lea Siliki could make his full debut after appearing from the bench against Coventry.

Injured player

Status
Marcus Browne Out
Marc Bola Out

Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction

Betting facts
  • Nottingham Forest have lost their last 4 home matches (Championship).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Nottingham Forest’s last 4 home games (Championship).
  • Nottingham Forest have seen over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches against Middlesbrough in all competitions.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Middlesbrough’s last 4 away games (Championship).
  • Nottingham Forest have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 home matches (Championship).

Desicive betting factors
  • The form score for the Nott’m Forest is -1 and for the Middlesbrough is -1.
  • The home dynamic for the Nott’m Forest is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Middlesbrough is -1.
  • The offensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 1 and for the Middlesbrough is -1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is -1 and for the Middlesbrough is -0.277.

Optimal equations estimations

Expected game result

The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls
Nott’m Forest 26% 33% 25% 17%
Middlesbrough 30% 37% 21% 12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.04 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.32 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Expected total goals number

The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.65
1 5.1 2-3 2.04
2 4.02 4+ 4.26
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.58 Un 1.5 3.65
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.1
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.91
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 4.26
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.31

Various goals scenarios

The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.

If game ends with

-1-

-X-

-2-
0-1 goals 2.74 3.51 2.85
2-3 goals 2.25 4.05 3.25
4+ goals 2.45 3.31 3.46
Ov 1.5 2.31 3.78 3.31
Un 1.5 2.74 3.51 2.85
Ov 2.5 1.99 6.7 2.87
Un 2.5 2.99 2.63 3.51
Ov 3.5 2.45 3.31 3.46
Un 3.5 2.4 3.84 3.09
Goal-Goal 2.74 2.69 3.79
No Goal 2.14 6.19 2.7
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.1 5.56 2.9
NG+Un 2.5 2.3 6.19 2.7

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