Stoke Vs Barnsley

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Stoke and Barnsley for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team

Home

Draw

Away

Over

Under
Book 1.79 3.49 4.92 2.25 1.66
Estim 1.84 3.97 4.9 1.97 2.03
Value % -1.52 -3.46 0.08 6.32 -10.98

Basic Data and latest results

Stoke basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 4 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1
Stoke latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Huddersfield H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Fulham A 0 3 L O Ng
21 Aug Nott’m Forest H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Swansea A 3 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Birmingham A 0 0 D U Ng
07 Aug Reading H 3 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Barnsley basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 1 22 2 3 2 1
Barnsley latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Bournemouth A 0 3 L O Ng
28 Aug Birmingham H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug QPR A 2 2 D O Gg
17 Aug Luton H 0 1 L U Ng
14 Aug Coventry H 1 0 W U Ng
07 Aug Cardiff A 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lineups and team news

The possible lineups for the game are:

Stoke (3-5-2) Barnsley (3-4-3)
Player

Pos

Player

Pos
Josef Bursik GK Bradley Collins GK
Leo ?stigard DC Toby Sibbick DC
Harry Souttar DC Michal Helik DC
Ben Wilmot DC Aapo Halme DC
Josh Tymon DML Clarke Odour DML
Romaine Sawyers MC Romal Palmer MC
Mario Vrancic MC Callum Styles MC
Joe Allen MC Callum Brittain DMR
Tommy Smith DMR Aaron Leya Iseka FWL
Jacob Brown FW Cauley Woodrow FW
Steven Fletcher FW Dominik Frieser FWR

Basic Data

Predictions

Stoke news and injuries


. Michael O’Neill could make two changes for this midweek encounter with central midfielder Joe Allen and experienced striker Steven Fletcher both set for returns. Tyrese Campbell continues to build up his fitness following a serious knee injury, while Nick Powell is ruled out with a thigh injury.

Injured player

Status
Nick Powell Out
Tyrese Campbell Out
Barnsley news and injuries


Mads Andersen, Carlton Morris and Jordan Williams are also unavailable for the visitors. An injury to left-wing-back Ben Williams means that Clarke Odour could be shifted into a more defensive role with Aaron Leya Isaka making his first start for the Tykes out wide. Centre-back Liam Kitching serves the second instalment of his three-match ban this weekend. .

Injured player

Status
Mads Andersen Out
Carlton Morris Out
Jordan Williams Out
Ben Williams Out
Liam Kitching Out

Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction

Betting facts
  • Stoke have won their last 3 home matches (Championship).
  • Stoke have won with a 1 goal margin in their last 3 home matches (Championship).
  • Barnsley have failed to win 9 of their last 10 matches (Championship).

Desicive betting factors
  • The form score for the Stoke is 1 and for the Barnsley is -1.
  • The home dynamic for the Stoke is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnsley is -1.
  • The offensive ability for the Stoke is -0.623 and for the Barnsley is -0.94.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.017 and for the Barnsley is -0.385.

Optimal equations estimations

Expected game result

The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls
Stoke 16% 30% 33% 21%
Barnsley 34% 43% 16% 8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.51 goals and Barnsley to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.58 goals and Barnsley to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Expected total goals number

The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds
0 18.18 0-1 4.42
1 5.85 2-3 1.86
2 3.76 4+ 4.22
3 3.69 Ov 1.5 1.29
4 6.1 Un 1.5 4.42
5 17.24 Ov 2.5 1.97
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 1.8 Ov 3.5 4.22
NoG 2.25 Un 3.5 1.31

Various goals scenarios

The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.

If game ends with

-1-

-X-

-2-
0-1 goals 2.22 4.11 3.28
2-3 goals 1.67 4.16 6.17
4+ goals 1.96 3.49 4.94
Ov 1.5 1.75 3.93 5.73
Un 1.5 2.22 4.11 3.28
Ov 2.5 1.53 7.47 4.66
Un 2.5 2.31 2.67 5.18
Ov 3.5 1.96 3.49 4.94
Un 3.5 1.8 4.15 4.89
Goal-Goal 2.13 2.82 5.72
No Goal 1.57 8.09 4.16
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.63 6.26 4.39
NG+Un 2.5 1.7 8.09 3.82

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