Swansea Vs Millwall

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Swansea and Millwall for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team

Home

Draw

Away

Over

Under
Book 2.71 3.12 2.81 2.42 1.6
Estim 2.38 3.57 3.33 2.2 1.83
Value % 5.12 -4.04 -5.56 4.13 -7.86

Basic Data and latest results

Swansea basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 3 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Home 0 2 1 22 1 1 1 2
Swansea latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep Hull H 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Preston A 1 3 L O Gg
20 Aug Bristol City A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Stoke H 1 3 L O Gg
14 Aug Sheffield United H 0 0 D U Ng
07 Aug Blackburn A 1 2 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Millwall basic data
Gms

Ws

Ds

Ls

Pt%

Sc

Con

Ov

Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 6 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
Millwall latest results
Date

Versus

At

Sc

Con

Res

OU

Gg
11 Sep West Brom A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Blackpool H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Cardiff A 1 3 L O Gg
17 Aug Fulham H 1 2 L O Gg
14 Aug Blackburn H 1 1 D U Gg
07 Aug QPR A 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lineups and team news

The possible lineups for the game are:

Swansea (3-4-2-1) Millwall (3-5-2)
Player

Pos

Player

Pos
Ben Hamer GK Bartosz Bialkowski GK
Ben Cabango DC Murray Wallace DC
Ryan Bennett DC Jake Cooper DC
Rhys Williams DC Danny Ballard DC
Jake Bidwell DML Scott Malone DML
Flynn Downes MC George Saville MC
Matt Grimes MC Ryan Leonard MC
Ethan Laird DMR Maikel Kieftenbeld MC
Jamie Paterson AMC Billy Mitchell DMR
Michael Obafemi AMC Matt Smith FW
Jo?l Piroe FW Jed Wallace FW

Basic Data

Predictions

Swansea news and injuries


. Two changes are on the cards for the home side this weekend with Ben Cabango and Michael Obafemi both in contention for starts. Korey Smith and Joel Latibeaudiere are both confirmed absentees.

Injured player

Status
Korey Smith Out
Joel Latibeaudiere Out
Millwall news and injuries

Striker Benik Afobe has been sidelined with an injury so expect Matt Smith to keep his place up front. With Mahlon Romeo out on loan and Dan McNamara sidelined with a groin injury, Billy Mitchell will be deployed on the right once again in midweek.
.

Injured player

Status
Dan McNamara Out
Shaun Hutchinson Out
Benik Afobe Out

Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction

Betting facts
  • Millwall have failed to win their last 6 away matches (Championship).

Desicive betting factors
  • The form score for the Swansea is -0.223 and for the Millwall is -0.824.
  • The home dynamic for the Swansea is -0.333 and the dynamic as a guest for the Millwall is -0.951.
  • The offensive ability for the Swansea is -0.736 and for the Millwall is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Swansea is 0.582 and for the Millwall is -1.

Optimal equations estimations

Expected game result

The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls
Swansea 25% 36% 20% 18%
Millwall 31% 40% 17% 12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.09 goals and Millwall to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.31 goals and Millwall to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Expected total goals number

The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.39
1 4.65 2-3 2.08
2 3.98 4+ 4.41
3 4.37 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.62 Un 1.5 3.39
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.41
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.29

Various goals scenarios

The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.

If game ends with

-1-

-X-

-2-
0-1 goals 2.61 3.69 2.89
2-3 goals 2.38 3.31 3.61
4+ goals 2.14 4.05 3.49
Ov 1.5 2.3 3.52 3.57
Un 1.5 2.61 3.69 2.89
Ov 2.5 1.86 8.14 2.94
Un 2.5 3.1 2.43 3.77
Ov 3.5 2.14 4.05 3.49
Un 3.5 2.46 3.44 3.3
Goal-Goal 2.74 2.55 4.1
No Goal 2.09 6.11 2.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.97 6.57 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.28 6.11 2.77

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