Accrington Vs Ipswich

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Accrington and Ipswich for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.89 3.37 2.43 1.96 1.88
Estim 2.58 3.53 3.03 2.22 1.82
Value % 4.16 -1.34 -8.15 -5.98 1.75



Basic Data and latest results


Accrington basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 3 0
At Home 3 0 1 75 4 2 2 2




Accrington latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Oxford A 1 5 L O Gg
25 Sep Morecambe A 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep Wigan H 1 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Sunderland A 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Shrewsbury H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Milton Keynes Dons A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Aug Crewe A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Aug Doncaster H 1 0 W U Ng



Ipswich basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Away 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1




Ipswich latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Doncaster H 6 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Sheffield Weds H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Lincoln A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Bolton H 2 5 L O Gg
28 Aug AFC Wimbledon H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Milton Keynes Dons H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Aug Cheltenham A 1 2 L O Gg
14 Aug Burton A 1 2 L O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Accrington (3-5-2) Ipswich (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
James Trafford GK V?clav Hladky GK
Sam Sherring DC Matthew Penney DL
Ross Sykes DC Cameron Burgess DC
Michael Nottingham DC George Edmundson DC
Sean McConville DML Janoi Donacien DR
Seamus Conneely MC Lee Evans DMC
Matt Butcher MC Sam Morsy DMC
Ethan Hamilton MC Scott Fraser AML
John O’Sullivan DMR Bersant Celina AMC
Colby Bishop FW Wes Burns AMR
Lewis Mansell FW Macauley Bonne FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Accrington news and injuries



. John Coleman will be expected to make wholesale changes after his Accrington side slipped to a 5-1 defeat at Oxford last time out. Youngster Jack Nolan and Harry Pell are two of those pushing for a starting place.


Injured player Status



Ipswich news and injuries


Ipswich boss Paul Cook is likely stick with the side that dismantled Doncaster on Tuesday.
.


Injured player Status




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Accrington have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches (League One).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Accrington’s last 4 games (League One).
  • Ipswich have won their last 3 matches against Accrington in all competitions.
  • Ipswich have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Accrington in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Accrington is -0.519 and for the Ipswich is 0.207.
  • The home dynamic for the Accrington is 0.412 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is -0.264.
  • The offensive ability for the Accrington is 0.617 and for the Ipswich is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Accrington is -0.657 and for the Ipswich is -0.142.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Accrington 25% 39% 23% 14%
Ipswich 29% 36% 25% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.17 goals and Ipswich to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.25 goals and Ipswich to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.58
1 4.88 2-3 1.96
2 3.72 4+ 4.76
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 7.04 Un 1.5 3.58
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 1.89 Ov 3.5 4.76
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.45 3.77 3.07
2-3 goals 2.69 3.65 2.82
4+ goals 2.56 3.04 3.56
Ov 1.5 2.65 3.45 3
Un 1.5 2.45 3.77 3.07
Ov 2.5 2.2 6.55 2.54
Un 2.5 3.03 2.56 3.58
Ov 3.5 2.56 3.04 3.56
Un 3.5 2.6 3.69 2.9
Goal-Goal 3.2 2.53 3.43
No Goal 2.14 6.38 2.67
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.35 5.62 2.52
NG+Un 2.5 2.25 6.38 2.67



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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