In this article I will analyze the game between Accrington and Ipswich for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Accrington basic data
Accrington latest results
|28 Aug||Milton Keynes Dons||A||0||2||L||U||Ng|
Ipswich basic data
Ipswich latest results
|25 Sep||Sheffield Weds||H||1||1||D||U||Gg|
|28 Aug||AFC Wimbledon||H||2||2||D||O||Gg|
|21 Aug||Milton Keynes Dons||H||2||2||D||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Accrington (3-5-2)||Ipswich (4-2-3-1)|
|James Trafford||GK||V?clav Hladky||GK|
|Sam Sherring||DC||Matthew Penney||DL|
|Ross Sykes||DC||Cameron Burgess||DC|
|Michael Nottingham||DC||George Edmundson||DC|
|Sean McConville||DML||Janoi Donacien||DR|
|Seamus Conneely||MC||Lee Evans||DMC|
|Matt Butcher||MC||Sam Morsy||DMC|
|Ethan Hamilton||MC||Scott Fraser||AML|
|John O’Sullivan||DMR||Bersant Celina||AMC|
|Colby Bishop||FW||Wes Burns||AMR|
|Lewis Mansell||FW||Macauley Bonne||FW|
Accrington news and injuries
. John Coleman will be expected to make wholesale changes after his Accrington side slipped to a 5-1 defeat at Oxford last time out. Youngster Jack Nolan and Harry Pell are two of those pushing for a starting place.
Ipswich news and injuries
Ipswich boss Paul Cook is likely stick with the side that dismantled Doncaster on Tuesday.
Betting information and prediction
- Accrington have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches (League One).
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Accrington’s last 4 games (League One).
- Ipswich have won their last 3 matches against Accrington in all competitions.
- Ipswich have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Accrington in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Accrington is -0.519 and for the Ipswich is 0.207.
- The home dynamic for the Accrington is 0.412 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ipswich is -0.264.
- The offensive ability for the Accrington is 0.617 and for the Ipswich is 1.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Accrington is -0.657 and for the Ipswich is -0.142.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.17 goals and Ipswich to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.25 goals and Ipswich to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|