AFC Wimbledon Vs Burton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Burton for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.28 3.42 3.07 1.95 1.87
Estim 2.28 3.79 3.36 2.01 1.99
Value % 0 -2.85 -2.81 -1.53 -3.22



Basic Data and latest results


AFC Wimbledon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 6 5 1
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1
At Home 1 2 1 42 3 4 2 2




AFC Wimbledon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Rotherham A 0 3 L O Ng
25 Sep Shrewsbury A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Plymouth H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Morecambe A 4 3 W O Gg
04 Sep Oxford H 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Ipswich A 2 2 D O Gg
21 Aug Sunderland A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Aug Gillingham H 1 1 D U Gg



Burton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 2 33 1 2 1 3




Burton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
28 Sep Portsmouth H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Lincoln H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Crewe A 0 2 L U Ng
11 Sep Gillingham H 1 1 D U Gg
06 Sep Bolton A 0 0 D U Ng
27 Aug Cheltenham H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Cambridge A 0 3 L O Ng
17 Aug Sunderland H 1 0 W U Ng






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


AFC Wimbledon (4-2-3-1) Burton (4-3-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Nikola Tzanev GK Ben Garratt GK
Nesta Guinness-Walker DL Thomas Hamer DL
Will Nightingale DC Michael Bostwick DC
Ben Heneghan DC Conor Shaughnessy DC
Cheye Alexander DR John Brayford DR
Alex Woodyard DMC Thomas O’Connor MC
Anthony Hartigan DMC Adedeji Oshilaja MC
Dapo Mebude AML Charlie Lakin MC
Luke McCormick AMC Jonny Smith FWL
Ayoub Assal AMR Daniel Jebbison FW
Aaron Pressley FW Lucas Akins FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

AFC Wimbledon news and injuries



. Mark Robinson could freshen up his side by recalling the likes of Anthony Hartigan and Luke McCormack.


Injured player Status



Burton news and injuries


Michael Mancienne is the only absentee for Burton.
.


Injured player Status
Michael Mancienne Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Burton have failed to score in their last 3 away matches (League One).
  • AFC Wimbledon have lost their last 3 matches (League One).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of AFC Wimbledon’s last 6 games (League One).
  • Burton are undefeated in their last 6 matches against AFC Wimbledon in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.244 and for the Burton is -0.163.
  • The home dynamic for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is -0.296.
  • The offensive ability for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.036 and for the Burton is 0.084.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the AFC Wimbledon is -1 and for the Burton is -0.657.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
AFC Wimbledon 24% 31% 27% 18%
Burton 31% 36% 21% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.38 goals and Burton to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.39 goals and Burton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.88
1 5.46 2-3 2.04
2 4.08 4+ 3.97
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.25 Un 1.5 3.88
5 14.29 Ov 2.5 2.01
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.99
Gg 1.91 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 2.1 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.69 3.44 2.97
2-3 goals 2.08 4.42 3.41
4+ goals 2.38 3.19 3.76
Ov 1.5 2.17 3.91 3.52
Un 1.5 2.69 3.44 2.97
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.3 3.11
Un 2.5 2.81 2.7 3.64
Ov 3.5 2.38 3.19 3.76
Un 3.5 2.26 4.03 3.24
Goal-Goal 2.59 2.76 3.97
No Goal 2.02 6.36 2.87
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.04 5.23 3.13
NG+Un 2.5 2.19 6.36 2.84



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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