Ajax Vs Utrecht

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ajax and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.18 7.23 12.93 1.27 3.7
Estim 1.46 5.41 7.75 1.59 2.68
Value % -16.25 4.65 5.17 -15.85 10.29



Basic Data and latest results


Ajax basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 6 1 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 0 3 0
At Home 4 0 0 100 4 0 4 0




Ajax latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Groningen H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Sep For Sittard A 5 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Cambuur H 9 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Zwolle A 2 0 W U Ng
29 Aug Vitesse H 5 0 W O Ng
22 Aug Twente A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Nijmegen H 5 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Utrecht basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 3 0
At Away 1 1 1 44 1 1 1 2




Utrecht latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Zwolle H 5 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Nijmegen A 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Waalwijk H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Twente A 0 1 L U Ng
29 Aug Feyenoord H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Groningen A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Sparta Rotterdam H 4 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Ajax (4-2-3-1) Utrecht (4-2-3-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Remko Pasveer GK Maarten Paes GK
Daley Blind DL Django Warmerdam DL
Lisandro Mart?nez DC Willem Janssen DC
Jurri?n Timber DC Mark van der Maarel DC
Noussair Mazraoui DR Hidde ter Avest DR
Edson ?lvarez DMC Adam Maher DMC
Ryan Gravenberch DMC Joris van Overeem DMC
Dusan Tadic AML Othmane Boussaid AML
Steven Berghuis AMC Bart Ramselaar AMC
Antony AMR Moussa Sylla AMR
S?bastien Haller FW Anastasios Douvikas FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Ajax news and injuries



He’ll be fighting Steven Berghuis for a spot in Erik ten Hag’s team. Davy Klaassen is pushing to start after returning to action last time out. . Maarten Stekelenburg and Sean Klaiber are injured, while Andre Onana is suspended.


Injured player Status
Sean Klaiber Out
Maarten Stekelenburg Out
Andr? Onana Out



Utrecht news and injuries



. Jago, Quinten Timber and Christopher Mamengi are all sidelined for the away side. Simon Gustafson, Tommy St.


Injured player Status
Quinten Timber Out
Tommy St. Jago Out
Christopher Mamengi Out
Simon Gustafson Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Ajax are undefeated in their last 30 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Ajax have scored at least 3 goals in their last 6 home matches (Eredivisie).
  • Ajax have been winning at both half time and full time in 10 of their last 11 matches (Eredivisie).
  • Ajax have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches (Eredivisie).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Ajax’s last 6 home games (Eredivisie).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in FC Utrecht’s last 3 games (Eredivisie).
  • Ajax are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 home matches against FC Utrecht in all competitions.
  • FC Utrecht have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches (Eredivisie).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ajax is 0.867 and for the Utrecht is 0.37.
  • The home dynamic for the Ajax is 0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Utrecht is 0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Ajax is 1 and for the Utrecht is 0.158.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ajax is 1 and for the Utrecht is -0.253.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ajax 9% 15% 35% 41%
Utrecht 55% 14% 19% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ajax to score 3.31 goals and Utrecht to score 0.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.84 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 2.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ajax to score 2.09 goals and Utrecht to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20.83 0-1 6.99
1 10.53 2-3 1.83
2 4.33 4+ 3.19
3 3.17 Ov 1.5 1.16
4 7.09 Un 1.5 6.99
5 8.2 Ov 2.5 1.59
6+ 20 Un 2.5 2.67
Gg 2.44 Ov 3.5 3.19
NoG 1.69 Un 3.5 1.45


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.72 2.98 11.92
2-3 goals 1.16 27.3 9.58
4+ goals 2.32 2.68 5.13
Ov 1.5 1.42 6.27 7.28
Un 1.5 1.72 2.98 11.92
Ov 2.5 1.53 5.37 6.22
Un 2.5 1.35 5.5 12.9
Ov 3.5 2.32 2.68 5.13
Un 3.5 1.25 10.13 9.99
Goal-Goal 2.24 2.99 4.56
No Goal 1.17 12.33 14.8
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.13 3.33 4.33
NG+Un 2.5 1.28 12.33 12.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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