Alcorcon Vs Sociedad B

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Sociedad B for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.23 3.04 3.38 2.56 1.51
Estim 2.93 3.5 2.68 2.39 1.72
Value % -10.71 -4.32 7.73 2.78 -8.09



Basic Data and latest results


Alcorcon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 2 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 2 1
At Home 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 1




Alcorcon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Valladolid A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Sep Almeria H 0 4 L O Ng
11 Sep Mirandes A 3 1 W O Gg
05 Sep Zaragoza H 1 2 L O Gg
27 Aug Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Fuenlabrada H 0 2 L U Ng
14 Aug Ponferradina A 0 1 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Sociedad B basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 2 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 2 1 22 1 2 0 3




Sociedad B latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Huesca H 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Eibar H 2 3 L O Gg
04 Sep Cartagena A 0 1 L U Ng
29 Aug Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
21 Aug Lugo A 0 0 D U Ng
14 Aug Leganes H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Alcorcon is -0.652 and for the Sociedad B is -0.533.
  • The home dynamic for the Alcorcon is -0.961 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sociedad B is -0.32.
  • The offensive ability for the Alcorcon is -0.865 and for the Sociedad B is -0.821.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Alcorcon is -1 and for the Sociedad B is -0.339.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Alcorcon 30% 39% 22% 9%
Sociedad B 31% 33% 25% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.17 goals and Sociedad B to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.1 goals and Sociedad B to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.87 0-1 3.24
1 4.61 2-3 1.98
2 3.68 4+ 5.38
3 4.31 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 7.75 Un 1.5 3.24
5 21.28 Ov 2.5 2.39
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.06 Ov 3.5 5.38
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.58 3.36 3.19
2-3 goals 2.98 3.97 2.42
4+ goals 3.65 2.78 2.74
Ov 1.5 3.14 3.56 2.5
Un 1.5 2.58 3.36 3.19
Ov 2.5 2.77 6.24 2.09
Un 2.5 3.07 2.65 3.36
Ov 3.5 3.65 2.78 2.74
Un 3.5 2.81 3.71 2.67
Goal-Goal 3.91 2.5 2.9
No Goal 2.38 5.59 2.5
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.89 5.34 2.14
NG+Un 2.5 2.4 5.59 2.62



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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