Aldershot Vs Wrexham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Aldershot and Wrexham for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.44 3.73 1.72 1.84 1.96
Estim 3.64 3.69 2.2 1.96 2.04
Value % 4.95 0.29 -12.68 -3.33 -2



Basic Data and latest results


Aldershot basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 6 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Home 0 0 4 0 2 4 2 2




Aldershot latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Halifax H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Wealdstone A 2 2 D O Gg
14 Sep Southend A 3 2 W O Gg
11 Sep Solihull H 1 2 L O Gg
04 Sep Notts County A 2 3 L O Gg
30 Aug Yeovil H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Aug Boreham Wood A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Chesterfield H 0 2 L U Ng



Wrexham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 2 2 33 5 4 4 1




Wrexham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Stockport A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Dag and Red H 1 0 W U Ng
14 Sep Grimsby A 1 3 L O Gg
11 Sep Woking H 1 0 W U Ng
04 Sep Southend A 2 2 D O Gg
30 Aug Notts County H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Eastleigh A 2 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Solihull A 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Aldershot is -0.467 and for the Wrexham is -0.022.
  • The home dynamic for the Aldershot is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wrexham is -0.272.
  • The offensive ability for the Aldershot is 0.451 and for the Wrexham is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Aldershot is -1 and for the Wrexham is -0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Aldershot 26% 45% 19% 10%
Wrexham 21% 33% 26% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 0.87 goals and Wrexham to score 1.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the guest team Wrexham to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.12 goals and Wrexham to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Wrexham to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 18.18 0-1 4.26
1 5.56 2-3 1.97
2 3.92 4+ 3.92
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.81 Un 1.5 4.26
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 1.97
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 1.72 Ov 3.5 3.92
NoG 2.4 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.5 4.27 2.73
2-3 goals 4.2 3.46 2.12
4+ goals 4.32 3.7 2.01
Ov 1.5 4.24 3.53 2.08
Un 1.5 2.5 4.27 2.73
Ov 2.5 3.6 7.36 1.7
Un 2.5 3.68 2.43 3.16
Ov 3.5 4.32 3.7 2.01
Un 3.5 3.46 3.68 2.28
Goal-Goal 4.84 2.69 2.37
No Goal 2.71 7.58 2
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.62 6.29 1.77
NG+Un 2.5 2.58 7.58 2.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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