Amorebieta Vs Sp Gijon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Amorebieta and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.42 3.05 2.23 2.35 1.63
Estim 2.53 3.47 3.15 2.48 1.68
Value % 10.29 -3.97 -13.1 -2.23 -1.83



Basic Data and latest results


Amorebieta basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 6 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1




Amorebieta latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Eibar H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Leganes A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Burgos H 2 2 D O Gg
05 Sep Ibiza A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Almeria H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Aug Mirandes A 0 2 L U Ng
14 Aug Girona A 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Sp Gijon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1




Sp Gijon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Malaga H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Eibar A 2 3 L O Gg
10 Sep Leganes H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Sep Girona A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Mirandes H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Tenerife A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Aug Burgos H 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Amorebieta is -0.17 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Amorebieta is 0.271 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.024.
  • The offensive ability for the Amorebieta is 0.098 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.611.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Amorebieta is -1 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.682.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Amorebieta 29% 36% 24% 12%
Sp Gijon 34% 36% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Amorebieta to score 0.94 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Gijon to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Amorebieta to score 1.18 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.07
1 4.41 2-3 2.02
2 3.7 4+ 5.56
3 4.44 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 8.13 Un 1.5 3.07
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.47
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.68
Gg 2.13 Ov 3.5 5.56
NoG 1.88 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.65 3.29 3.13
2-3 goals 2.39 3.81 3.13
4+ goals 2.73 3.05 3.27
Ov 1.5 2.47 3.57 3.17
Un 1.5 2.65 3.29 3.13
Ov 2.5 2.11 6.86 2.63
Un 2.5 2.92 2.6 3.66
Ov 3.5 2.73 3.05 3.27
Un 3.5 2.49 3.59 3.13
Goal-Goal 3.09 2.48 3.66
No Goal 2.18 5.37 2.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 5.75 2.65
NG+Un 2.5 2.28 5.37 2.86



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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