Angers Vs Metz

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Angers and Metz for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2 3.36 4.1 2.3 1.67
Estim 1.58 4.67 6.54 1.77 2.3
Value % 13.29 -8.35 -9.1 13.02 -16.4



Basic Data and latest results


Angers basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 4 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 1 2 2




Angers latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Troyes A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Marseille H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Nantes H 1 4 L O Gg
12 Sep Brest A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Rennes H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Aug Bordeaux A 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Lyon H 3 0 W O Ng
08 Aug Strasbourg A 2 0 W U Ng



Metz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 6 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Away 1 1 2 33 2 4 3 1




Metz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Brest A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Paris SG H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Strasbourg A 0 3 L O Ng
12 Sep Troyes H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Clermont A 2 2 D O Gg
22 Aug Reims H 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Nantes A 0 2 L U Ng
08 Aug Lille H 3 3 D O Gg






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Angers (3-4-1-2) Metz (4-5-1)
Player Pos Player Pos
Paul Bernardoni GK Alexandre Oukidja GK
Romain Thomas DC Matthieu Udol DL
Ismael Traor? DC Sikou Niakat? DC
Vincent Manceau DC Dylan Bronn DC
Souleyman Doumbia ML Fabien Centonze DR
Thomas Mangani MC Opa Nguette ML
Batista Mendy MC Vincent Pajot MC
Jimmy Cabot MR Habib Ma?ga MC
Angelo Fulgini AMC Pape Sarr MC
Mohamed-Ali Cho FW Papa Ndiaga Yade MR
Sofiane Boufal FW Ibrahima Niane FW




Basic Data

Predictions

Angers news and injuries



. After rotating last weekend, Angers should be back to full strength here. Stephane Bahoken is an option in attack.


Injured player Status



Metz news and injuries


Lamine Gueye and Farid Boulaya are also missing for the away side. Dylan Bronn is back from suspension but now Metz have lost Kiki Kouyate to a ban.
.
Thomas Delaine is not expected back for several weeks. Metz experimented with a flat back four against Brest and could do the same here.


Injured player Status
Kevin N’Doram Out
Manuel Cabit Out
Thomas Delaine Out
Kiki Kouyate Out




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Angers’s last 6 games (Ligue 1).
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Metz’s last 6 away games (Ligue 1).
  • Angers are undefeated in their last 5 matches against Metz in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Angers is -0.022 and for the Metz is -0.319.
  • The home dynamic for the Angers is 0.176 and the dynamic as a guest for the Metz is -0.2.
  • The offensive ability for the Angers is 0.482 and for the Metz is 0.053.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Angers is -0.227 and for the Metz is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Angers 14% 23% 30% 32%
Metz 40% 35% 20% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Angers to score 1.39 goals and Metz to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Angers to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Angers to score 1.81 goals and Metz to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Angers to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.54 0-1 4.98
1 6.94 2-3 1.91
2 4.29 4+ 3.6
3 3.45 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 5.41 Un 1.5 4.98
5 12.66 Ov 2.5 1.76
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 2.3
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 3.6
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.38


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.12 3.53 4.1
2-3 goals 1.46 6.3 6.38
4+ goals 1.54 3.71 12.09
Ov 1.5 1.49 5.07 7.63
Un 1.5 2.12 3.53 4.1
Ov 2.5 1.37 7.57 7.38
Un 2.5 2 3.1 5.64
Ov 3.5 1.54 3.71 12.09
Un 3.5 1.6 5.17 5.53
Goal-Goal 1.8 3.25 7.24
No Goal 1.4 8.56 5.88
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.51 5.75 6.07
NG+Un 2.5 1.62 8.56 4.56



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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