Arouca Vs Sp Lisbon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Arouca and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 7.49 4.03 1.45 1.99 1.82
Estim 5.08 4.03 1.8 2.06 1.94
Value % 6.33 0 -13.41 -1.71 -3.4



Basic Data and latest results


Arouca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 6 5 1
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 3 0
At Home 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1




Arouca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Moreirense A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Guimaraes H 2 2 D O Gg
13 Sep Maritimo A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Porto A 0 3 L O Ng
20 Aug Famalicao H 2 1 W O Gg
14 Aug Benfica A 0 2 L U Ng
07 Aug Estoril H 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Sp Lisbon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 3 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Away 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2




Sp Lisbon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
24 Sep Maritimo H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Estoril A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Porto H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Famalicao A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Belenenses H 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Sp Braga A 2 1 W O Gg
06 Aug Vizela H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Arouca is -0.348 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.667.
  • The home dynamic for the Arouca is 0.004 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Lisbon is 0.64.
  • The offensive ability for the Arouca is 0.171 and for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Arouca is -1 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.227.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Arouca 40% 38% 16% 6%
Sp Lisbon 19% 32% 23% 26%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Arouca to score 0.59 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Arouca to score 0.88 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.57 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.66
1 5.05 2-3 2.01
2 4.13 4+ 4.35
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.37 Un 1.5 3.66
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 4.35
NoG 1.95 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.79 3.64 2.17
2-3 goals 5.52 4.14 1.73
4+ goals 6.57 4.34 1.62
Ov 1.5 5.82 4.2 1.69
Un 1.5 3.79 3.64 2.17
Ov 2.5 5.05 9.15 1.44
Un 2.5 5.1 2.64 2.35
Ov 3.5 6.57 4.34 1.62
Un 3.5 4.75 3.95 1.86
Goal-Goal 5.8 2.82 2.12
No Goal 4.54 6.84 1.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.37 6.92 1.6
NG+Un 2.5 3.91 6.84 1.8



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *