Ath Bilbao Vs Alaves

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Alaves for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.58 4.03 6.78 2.32 1.67
Estim 1.37 5.03 14.49 2.2 1.83
Value % 9.7 -4.93 -7.85 2.35 -5.24



Basic Data and latest results


Ath Bilbao basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 3 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2




Ath Bilbao latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Valencia A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Vallecano H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Ath Madrid A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Mallorca H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Celta A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Aug Barcelona H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Aug Elche A 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Alaves basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 2 5 2 4
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 0 3
At Away 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 1




Alaves latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Ath Madrid H 1 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Espanol A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Osasuna H 0 2 L U Ng
27 Aug Valencia A 0 3 L O Ng
21 Aug Mallorca H 0 1 L U Ng
14 Aug Real Madrid H 1 4 L O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Ath Bilbao (4-4-2) Alaves (3-4-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Unai Sim?n GK Fernando Pacheco GK
Mikel Balenziaga DL V?ctor Laguardia DC
??igo Mart?nez DC Matt Miazga DC
Dani Vivian DC Ximo Navarro DC
??igo Lekue DR Rub?n Duarte DML
Iker Muniain ML Toni Moya MC
Dani Garc?a MC Mamadou Loum MC
Unai Vencedor MC Mart?n Aguirregabiria DMR
Alex Berenguer MR Luis Rioja FWL
I?aki Williams FW Mamadou Sylla FW
Ra?l Garc?a FW Miguel De la Fuente FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

Ath Bilbao news and injuries



But there is progress elsewhere with Yeray Alvarez and Oihan Sancet recovering from respective injuries.
. Yuri Berchiche and Peru Nolaskoain remain out after operations. Little change is expected here for Athletic Club. Asier Villalibre is also out here, meaning Raul Garcia will keep his place up top.


Injured player Status
Yuri Berchiche Out
Peru Nolaskoain Out
Asier Villalibre Out



Alaves news and injuries



Pere Pons and Edgar Mendez are also doubts, but for the first time in a number of weeks, no one has been ruled out just yet. Florian Lejeune and Ruben Duarte both remain doubts but are expected to be healthy enough to start this one. Javi Calleja had success with the three-at-the-back system last time out and it’s expected it will be kept here.
. Injury issues are clearing up for Alaves.


Injured player Status
Rub?n Duarte Doubtful
Edgar M?ndez Doubtful
Florian Lejeune Doubtful
Pere Pons Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Athletic Bilbao have seen under 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 15 matches against Deportivo Alaves in all competitions.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Athletic Bilbao’s last 10 games (LaLiga).
  • Deportivo Alaves have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away matches (LaLiga).
  • Athletic Bilbao have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 home matches against Deportivo Alaves in all competitions.
  • Deportivo Alaves have failed to win 15 of their last 16 away matches (LaLiga).
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Deportivo Alaves’s last 3 games (LaLiga).
  • Athletic Bilbao are undefeated in 9 of their last 10 home matches against Deportivo Alaves in all competitions.



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ath Bilbao is 0.126 and for the Alaves is -0.607.
  • The home dynamic for the Ath Bilbao is -0.043 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alaves is -0.92.
  • The offensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.513 and for the Alaves is -0.895.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.116 and for the Alaves is -0.545.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ath Bilbao 23% 15% 24% 38%
Alaves 67% 24% 17% -8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.64 goals and Alaves to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.77 goals and Alaves to score 0.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 1.43 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 6.62 0-1 3.26
1 6.41 2-3 1.79
2 4.2 4+ 7.3
3 3.12 Ov 1.5 1.44
4 8.26 Un 1.5 3.26
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ -33.33 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 3.89 Ov 3.5 7.3
NoG 1.34 Un 3.5 1.16


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.01 2.03 5.69
2-3 goals 1.17 15.5 11.87
4+ goals 0.88 11.42 -4.42
Ov 1.5 1.1 14.48 43.44
Un 1.5 3.01 2.03 5.69
Ov 2.5 0.98 38.08 -19.87
Un 2.5 2.06 2.91 5.86
Ov 3.5 0.88 11.42 -4.42
Un 3.5 1.5 4.63 8.56
Goal-Goal 1.2 5.35 -51.4
No Goal 1.44 4.93 9.93
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.03 18.42 -44.2
NG+Un 2.5 1.92 4.93 5.47



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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