In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Alaves for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Ath Bilbao basic data
Ath Bilbao latest results
|18 Sep||Ath Madrid||A||0||0||D||U||Ng|
Alaves basic data
Alaves latest results
|25 Sep||Ath Madrid||H||1||0||W||U||Ng|
|14 Aug||Real Madrid||H||1||4||L||O||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Ath Bilbao (4-4-2)||Alaves (3-4-3)|
|Unai Sim?n||GK||Fernando Pacheco||GK|
|Mikel Balenziaga||DL||V?ctor Laguardia||DC|
|??igo Mart?nez||DC||Matt Miazga||DC|
|Dani Vivian||DC||Ximo Navarro||DC|
|??igo Lekue||DR||Rub?n Duarte||DML|
|Iker Muniain||ML||Toni Moya||MC|
|Dani Garc?a||MC||Mamadou Loum||MC|
|Unai Vencedor||MC||Mart?n Aguirregabiria||DMR|
|Alex Berenguer||MR||Luis Rioja||FWL|
|I?aki Williams||FW||Mamadou Sylla||FW|
|Ra?l Garc?a||FW||Miguel De la Fuente||FWR|
Ath Bilbao news and injuries
But there is progress elsewhere with Yeray Alvarez and Oihan Sancet recovering from respective injuries.
. Yuri Berchiche and Peru Nolaskoain remain out after operations. Little change is expected here for Athletic Club. Asier Villalibre is also out here, meaning Raul Garcia will keep his place up top.
Alaves news and injuries
Pere Pons and Edgar Mendez are also doubts, but for the first time in a number of weeks, no one has been ruled out just yet. Florian Lejeune and Ruben Duarte both remain doubts but are expected to be healthy enough to start this one. Javi Calleja had success with the three-at-the-back system last time out and it’s expected it will be kept here.
. Injury issues are clearing up for Alaves.
Betting information and prediction
- Athletic Bilbao have seen under 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 15 matches against Deportivo Alaves in all competitions.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Athletic Bilbao’s last 10 games (LaLiga).
- Deportivo Alaves have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away matches (LaLiga).
- Athletic Bilbao have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 home matches against Deportivo Alaves in all competitions.
- Deportivo Alaves have failed to win 15 of their last 16 away matches (LaLiga).
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Deportivo Alaves’s last 3 games (LaLiga).
- Athletic Bilbao are undefeated in 9 of their last 10 home matches against Deportivo Alaves in all competitions.
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Ath Bilbao is 0.126 and for the Alaves is -0.607.
- The home dynamic for the Ath Bilbao is -0.043 and the dynamic as a guest for the Alaves is -0.92.
- The offensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.513 and for the Alaves is -0.895.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 0.116 and for the Alaves is -0.545.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.64 goals and Alaves to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.77 goals and Alaves to score 0.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 1.43 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|