Ath Madrid Vs Barcelona

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.95 3.6 4.28 2.04 1.86
Estim 1.87 4.03 4.61 1.9 2.11
Value % 2.19 -2.96 -1.67 3.61 -6.37



Basic Data and latest results


Ath Madrid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 2 1 2
At Home 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2




Ath Madrid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Alaves A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Getafe A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Ath Bilbao H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Espanol A 2 1 W O Gg
29 Aug Villarreal H 2 2 D O Gg
22 Aug Elche H 1 0 W U Ng
15 Aug Celta A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Barcelona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2
At Away 0 2 0 33 1 1 0 2




Barcelona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Levante H 3 0 W O Ng
23 Sep Cadiz A 0 0 D U Ng
20 Sep Granada H 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Getafe H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Ath Bilbao A 1 1 D U Gg
15 Aug Sociedad H 4 2 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Lineups and team news


The possible lineups for the game are:


Ath Madrid (3-4-2-1) Barcelona (4-3-3)
Player Pos Player Pos
Jan Oblak GK Marc-Andr? ter Stegen GK
Mario Hermoso DC Sergi?o Dest DL
Jos? Gim?nez DC Gerard Piqu? DC
Stefan Savic DC Eric Garc?a DC
Yannick Carrasco DML ?scar Mingueza DR
Marcos Llorente MC Sergio Busquets MC
Koke MC Frenkie de Jong MC
Kieran Trippier DMR Pedri MC
Antoine Griezmann AMC Memphis Depay FWL
Thomas Lemar AMC Ansu Fati FW
Luis Su?rez FW Philippe Coutinho FWR




Basic Data

Predictions

Ath Madrid news and injuries


. Koke is back from injury and Joao Felix has served his suspension. Kieran Trippier picked up a knock in midweek but should be fine to play here.
Antoine Griezmann will hope to face the club he left late in the summer.


Injured player Status
Kieran Trippier Doubtful



Barcelona news and injuries



.
With Ronald Koeman desperate, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him turn to Ansu Fati, who is only just back from a lengthy lay-off. Luuk de Jong is likely to drop out after a disappointing performance last time. Jordi Alba is nearing a return, but he is still likely to miss out here, and with Alejandro Balde also out, Sergino Dest will likely continue on the left. Frenkie De Jong is back from suspension and will play in the midfield alongside Pedri, who is back from injury, and Sergio Busquets.


Injured player Status
Ousmane Demb?l? Out
Sergio Ag?ero Out
Martin Braithwaite Out
Jordi Alba Doubtful
Alejandro Balde Doubtful




Basic Data

Lineups

Betting information and prediction


Betting facts


  • Atletico are undefeated in their last 10 home matches (LaLiga).
  • Atletico have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Barcelona in all competitions.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Barcelona’s last 3 away games (LaLiga).
  • Barcelona are undefeated in their last 7 matches (LaLiga).



Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ath Madrid is 0.281 and for the Barcelona is 0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Ath Madrid is 0.271 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barcelona is 0.
  • The offensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.036 and for the Barcelona is 0.474.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.288 and for the Barcelona is -0.116.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.


Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ath Madrid 19% 30% 24% 28%
Barcelona 34% 42% 16% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.56 goals and Barcelona to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.61 goals and Barcelona to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.87 0-1 4.17
1 5.65 2-3 2.04
2 4.27 4+ 3.7
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.56 Un 1.5 4.17
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 1.9
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.11
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 3.7
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.4 3.81 3.12
2-3 goals 1.81 3.99 5.11
4+ goals 1.67 4.29 6
Ov 1.5 1.75 4.09 5.4
Un 1.5 2.4 3.81 3.12
Ov 2.5 1.49 8.37 4.79
Un 2.5 2.63 2.55 4.39
Ov 3.5 1.67 4.29 6
Un 3.5 1.97 3.93 4.23
Goal-Goal 2.08 2.9 5.74
No Goal 1.68 7.32 3.72
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.6 6.62 4.44
NG+Un 2.5 1.95 7.32 3.25



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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