In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
Basic Data and latest results
Ath Madrid basic data
Ath Madrid latest results
|18 Sep||Ath Bilbao||H||0||0||D||U||Ng|
Barcelona basic data
Barcelona latest results
|21 Aug||Ath Bilbao||A||1||1||D||U||Gg|
Lineups and team news
The possible lineups for the game are:
|Ath Madrid (3-4-2-1)||Barcelona (4-3-3)|
|Jan Oblak||GK||Marc-Andr? ter Stegen||GK|
|Mario Hermoso||DC||Sergi?o Dest||DL|
|Jos? Gim?nez||DC||Gerard Piqu?||DC|
|Stefan Savic||DC||Eric Garc?a||DC|
|Yannick Carrasco||DML||?scar Mingueza||DR|
|Marcos Llorente||MC||Sergio Busquets||MC|
|Koke||MC||Frenkie de Jong||MC|
|Antoine Griezmann||AMC||Memphis Depay||FWL|
|Thomas Lemar||AMC||Ansu Fati||FW|
|Luis Su?rez||FW||Philippe Coutinho||FWR|
Ath Madrid news and injuries
. Koke is back from injury and Joao Felix has served his suspension. Kieran Trippier picked up a knock in midweek but should be fine to play here.
Antoine Griezmann will hope to face the club he left late in the summer.
Barcelona news and injuries
With Ronald Koeman desperate, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him turn to Ansu Fati, who is only just back from a lengthy lay-off. Luuk de Jong is likely to drop out after a disappointing performance last time. Jordi Alba is nearing a return, but he is still likely to miss out here, and with Alejandro Balde also out, Sergino Dest will likely continue on the left. Frenkie De Jong is back from suspension and will play in the midfield alongside Pedri, who is back from injury, and Sergio Busquets.
Betting information and prediction
- Atletico are undefeated in their last 10 home matches (LaLiga).
- Atletico have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home matches against Barcelona in all competitions.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Barcelona’s last 3 away games (LaLiga).
- Barcelona are undefeated in their last 7 matches (LaLiga).
Desicive betting factors
- The form score for the Ath Madrid is 0.281 and for the Barcelona is 0.496.
- The home dynamic for the Ath Madrid is 0.271 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barcelona is 0.
- The offensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.036 and for the Barcelona is 0.474.
- Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.288 and for the Barcelona is -0.116.
Optimal equations estimations
Expected game result
The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.
|Team||No-G||1 gl||2 gls||3+ gls|
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.56 goals and Barcelona to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.61 goals and Barcelona to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
Expected total goals number
The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.
Various goals scenarios
The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.
|If game ends with||-1-||-X-||-2-|