Belenenses Vs Tondela

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Belenenses and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.45 3.18 2.89 2.15 1.73
Estim 3.14 3.69 2.43 2.35 1.74
Value % -8.97 -4.35 6.55 -3.96 -0.33



Basic Data and latest results


Belenenses basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 4 5 2 4
Last 3 0 3 0 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2




Belenenses latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
27 Sep Pacos Ferreira A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Gil Vicente H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Guimaraes A 0 0 D U Ng
27 Aug Moreirense H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Sp Lisbon A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Aug Maritimo H 1 2 L O Gg
08 Aug Porto A 0 2 L U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Tondela basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 5 6 6 0
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Away 0 0 3 0 3 3 3 0




Tondela latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Famalicao H 3 2 W O Gg
20 Sep Sp Braga A 1 3 L O Gg
13 Sep Estoril H 1 2 L O Gg
29 Aug Benfica A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Aug Portimonense H 0 3 L O Ng
14 Aug Vizela A 1 2 L O Gg
08 Aug Santa Clara H 3 0 W O Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Belenenses is -0.281 and for the Tondela is -0.607.
  • The home dynamic for the Belenenses is -0.31 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tondela is -0.96.
  • The offensive ability for the Belenenses is 0.098 and for the Tondela is 0.579.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Belenenses is -0.597 and for the Tondela is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Belenenses 34% 37% 18% 10%
Tondela 33% 24% 31% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Belenenses to score 1.23 goals and Tondela to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Belenenses to score 1.05 goals and Tondela to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.85 0-1 3.13
1 4.85 2-3 2.05
2 3.94 4+ 5.21
3 4.27 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 8 Un 1.5 3.13
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.35
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.75
Gg 2.27 Ov 3.5 5.21
NoG 1.79 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.59 2.82 3.84
2-3 goals 3.54 5.42 1.88
4+ goals 3.37 2.82 2.87
Ov 1.5 3.49 4.3 2.08
Un 1.5 2.59 2.82 3.84
Ov 2.5 3.13 6.26 1.92
Un 2.5 3.15 2.82 3.05
Ov 3.5 3.37 2.82 2.87
Un 3.5 3.09 3.98 2.35
Goal-Goal 4.36 2.78 2.43
No Goal 2.58 4.95 2.44
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.47 5.15 1.93
NG+Un 2.5 2.65 4.95 2.57



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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