Benevento Vs Perugia

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Benevento and Perugia for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.07 3.32 3.6 2.01 1.83
Estim 2.48 3.52 3.19 2.28 1.78
Value % -7.99 -1.71 3.57 -5.89 1.53



Basic Data and latest results


Benevento basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 0 78 2 2 2 1




Benevento latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Como A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Cittadella H 4 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Ascoli A 2 0 W U Ng
10 Sep Lecce H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Parma A 0 1 L U Ng
22 Aug Alessandria H 4 3 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Perugia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 3 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Away 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2




Perugia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Alessandria H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Cremonese A 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Cosenza H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Frosinone A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Ascoli H 2 3 L O Gg
21 Aug Pordenone A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Benevento is 0.348 and for the Perugia is 0.17.
  • The home dynamic for the Benevento is 0.608 and the dynamic as a guest for the Perugia is 0.64.
  • The offensive ability for the Benevento is 0.14 and for the Perugia is 0.547.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Benevento is -0.227 and for the Perugia is 0.116.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Benevento 27% 33% 30% 11%
Perugia 28% 44% 18% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.46 goals and Perugia to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Benevento to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.25 goals and Perugia to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.52
1 4.78 2-3 1.9
2 3.61 4+ 5.24
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.52 Un 1.5 3.52
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.28
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.78
Gg 1.89 Ov 3.5 5.24
NoG 2.12 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.12 3.79 2.41
2-3 goals 2.14 3.65 3.86
4+ goals 2.85 2.94 3.24
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.43 3.67
Un 1.5 3.12 3.79 2.41
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.75 3.03
Un 2.5 3.22 2.56 3.34
Ov 3.5 2.85 2.94 3.24
Un 3.5 2.41 3.69 3.19
Goal-Goal 2.65 2.53 4.4
No Goal 2.31 6.29 2.45
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.93 5.91 3.2
NG+Un 2.5 2.4 6.29 2.48



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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