Benfica Vs Portimonense

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Benfica and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.22 6.3 12.6 1.58 2.34
Estim 3 3.68 2.53 2.46 1.68
Value % -48.63 11.3 31.59 -22.64 16.79



Basic Data and latest results


Benfica basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 6 0 0 100 6 3 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 3 0
At Home 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1




Benfica latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Guimaraes A 3 1 W O Gg
20 Sep Boavista H 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Santa Clara A 5 0 W O Ng
29 Aug Tondela H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Aug Gil Vicente A 2 0 W U Ng
14 Aug Arouca H 2 0 W U Ng
07 Aug Moreirense A 2 1 W O Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Portimonense basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 4 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Away 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2




Portimonense latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
26 Sep Vizela H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Sep Santa Clara H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Boavista A 1 1 D U Gg
29 Aug Pacos Ferreira H 0 1 L U Ng
22 Aug Tondela A 3 0 W O Ng
15 Aug Gil Vicente H 0 1 L U Ng
08 Aug Guimaraes A 1 0 W U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Benfica is 1 and for the Portimonense is 0.037.
  • The home dynamic for the Benfica is 0.922 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portimonense is 0.616.
  • The offensive ability for the Benfica is 1 and for the Portimonense is -0.4.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Benfica is 0.056 and for the Portimonense is -0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Benfica 35% 37% 18% 10%
Portimonense 38% 19% 34% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 2.53 goals and Portimonense to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 2.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.03 goals and Portimonense to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.58 0-1 2.96
1 4.85 2-3 2.05
2 3.91 4+ 5.71
3 4.33 Ov 1.5 1.51
4 8.77 Un 1.5 2.96
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.46
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 1.68
Gg 2.47 Ov 3.5 5.71
NoG 1.68 Un 3.5 1.21


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.4 2.56 5.2
2-3 goals 3.53 6.96 1.75
4+ goals 3.24 2.54 3.37
Ov 1.5 3.45 4.76 2
Un 1.5 2.4 2.56 5.2
Ov 2.5 3.25 5.88 1.92
Un 2.5 2.86 2.94 3.23
Ov 3.5 3.24 2.54 3.37
Un 3.5 2.96 4.08 2.4
Goal-Goal 4.66 2.91 2.26
No Goal 2.42 4.51 2.74
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.85 4.86 1.87
NG+Un 2.5 2.52 4.51 2.85



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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