Bielefeld Vs Leverkusen

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 5.03 3.89 1.71 1.77 2.11
Estim 3.91 4.02 2.02 1.83 2.21
Value % 5.69 -0.83 -8.97 -1.85 -2.14



Basic Data and latest results


Bielefeld basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 3 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 2 1 2
At Home 0 3 0 33 1 1 0 3




Bielefeld latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Union Berlin A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Hoffenheim H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep M’gladbach A 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Ein Frankfurt H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Greuther Furth A 1 1 D U Gg
14 Aug Freiburg H 0 0 D U Ng
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA



Leverkusen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1




Leverkusen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
25 Sep Mainz H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Stuttgart A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Dortmund H 3 4 L O Gg
28 Aug Augsburg A 4 1 W O Gg
21 Aug M’gladbach H 4 0 W O Ng
14 Aug Union Berlin A 1 1 D U Gg
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bielefeld is -0.37 and for the Leverkusen is 0.519.
  • The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leverkusen is 0.664.
  • The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.451 and for the Leverkusen is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is -0.253 and for the Leverkusen is -0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bielefeld 32% 38% 18% 13%
Leverkusen 21% 28% 24% 27%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 0.86 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.11 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 4.27
1 5.95 2-3 2.12
2 4.57 4+ 3.41
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.56 Un 1.5 4.27
5 12.82 Ov 2.5 1.83
6+ 28.57 Un 2.5 2.21
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 3.41
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.42


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 3.55 2.6
2-3 goals 4.21 4.5 1.85
4+ goals 4.51 3.81 1.94
Ov 1.5 4.32 4.2 1.88
Un 1.5 3 3.55 2.6
Ov 2.5 3.9 7.09 1.66
Un 2.5 3.94 2.65 2.71
Ov 3.5 4.51 3.81 1.94
Un 3.5 3.72 4.13 2.05
Goal-Goal 4.71 2.95 2.23
No Goal 3.28 7 1.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.79 5.61 1.79
NG+Un 2.5 3.03 7 2.08



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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